Panic buying

It occurred to me, as I was talking to someone about the still-present situation regarding .22 ammo, that any lulls that we’ve experienced in the panic buying over the last year or so are going to be pretty much wiped out by the fact that next year is an election year.

The Clintons, Slick Willy or/and Hillary, are hardly friends of gun rights. They aren’t even friends of friends of gun rights. And as you hear Clintons name bandied about more and more as the nomination process approaches you’re going to see more and more panic buying going on.

Then, once the nomination process is on, it’ll continue as the election comes closer closer. Finally, depending on who is elected, it might start to calm down around March or April of 2017.

This stuff is actually highly predictable. The four stages of gun panics, as far as elections go, are:

  • Right before the election
  • Right after the election
  • Right before the inauguration
  • Right after the inauguration

Don’t take my word for it, your own life experiences should confirm what I’m telling you.

thNow, I’m not nearly as stupid as I look (I couldn’t possibly be), but even I learned a long time ago to buy what I needed as soon as possible, as much as possible, so I could ignore this sort of thing.

“But, Zero”, I hear you cry, “I am a survivalist of limited resources. I can’t possibly get all my guns, ammo, and magazines before the election. I need both those kidneys!”

Well, that’s true. It’s a pretty intimidating list. That’s why you need to prioritize that mofo like no one’s business. Let’s look at it from a historical and hysterical standpoint – in the last, oh, say thirty years, what’s been regulated out of the realm of ownership by us simple peons? Chinese guns, Chinese ammo, steel core 5.54×39, steel core 7.62×39, imported rifle barrels for ‘assault weapons’, magazines that hold more than 10 rounds*, pistol grip stocks on semi-auto rifles*, bayonet lugs*, etc.

What else could come down the pike from the twisted gnomes in Washington? Well, almost certainly a magazine ban, assault weapons ban, and some restrictions on ammo. That whole wrist brace issue is living on borrowed time, IMHO. I expect there’ll be some fundamental changes to the DIY/80% receiver market and possibly some restrictions on mail ordering the other parts you need to complete your AR. (And before you say that ATF can’t regulate gun parts that aren’t serialized receivers, go try to import some AK barrels and let me know what happens.) And I fully expect there to be some restrictions on body armour coming along as well.

So, man of limited resources, where do you put your money to get the most bang for your buck in a world where political expediency directly challenges your ability to own thundertoys? Guns, mags, ammo, in that order. Since it is reasonable to expect that as we slide further and further down the timeline prices will go up and availability will go down, it would seem to make the most sense to purchase the most expensive and least available items first. Actual guns are outnumbered by magazines and ammo, so get the guns first. After that, get the magazines. After that, ammo. For every AR, there are probably hundred of AR mags, and thousands of rounds of .223….so get the guns first.

Stripped lowers? Sure, if you can’t afford the actual complete gun I’d grab as many stripped lowers as I can. I suspect that at some point the upper receivers and what not will be regulated as well but until that time you’ll at least have the serial numbered part sitting away waiting for you to complete it…or use it as trade for other stuff.

Magazines are simply a buy-as-many-as-you-can item. For those of us who remember the ’94-’04 ban, we can tell you youngsters stories about $750 BetaMags, $100 Glock mags, and $30 AR mags. It was a time of great chaos, and great(!) profit making. Even if you don’t have the gun, get the mags.

Unless you’re on fire or swimming, you can’t have too much ammo. Any surplus ammo still coming into the country, as well as the Russian stuff, is probably first in the crosshairs of those who would do evil to us. While we all have a magic number in our head about how much ammo is the recommended amount per gun, the truth is that you really can’t go wrong with buying as much as you can afford. If you don’t think so, look at the the folks who are sitting on thousands and thousands of rounds of .22LR right now. Or cases of old Chinese 7.62×39 when it was nine cents per round.

At this point I’m sure there is some genius hitting the comment button about to say something deeply profound like “It’s because of idiots like you encouraging all this hoarding that I can’t find .22LR ammo, and when I can find it it’s at ten cents a round!” Actually, it’s not because of me..it’s because of basic economics, laws of scarcity and demand, and federal asshattery. (How many ‘t’s in asshattery, anyway?)

Having been to this dance before, I’m pretty much immune to a bunch of it. I already have a goodly amount of guns and mags stashed away, and ammo is always on the shopping list anyway. But it is my opinion that if you’ve been waiting for prices to ‘return to normal’ or for ‘availability to return to normal’ you’re going to be left with a full wallet and empty shopping cart. As the political season heats up prices are going to go up, availability will go down, and today is going to be looked back upon as the day you’ll wish you had started shopping.

* = yes, that law sunset and we can now enjoy normal-capacity magazines and ‘evil features’. But do you really think they’re gonna make that mistake again?

20 thoughts on “Panic buying

  1. right on brother! prices are actually below normal with the exception of 22 ammo and certain specialty mags. i routinely find quality ar mags for 7 bucks and palmetto had a decent ar for 399.00 a couple days ago. they still have the vz58 for 399 and that is a great deal. i love mine. 400/1000 is the new normal for 223/556 so get over it and buy, and buy some more. there is no excuse this time. i plan to make some cash and not feel bad about it because i warned everybody , but noooo that 65 inch flatscreen was more important. i got mine so i plan to relax this summer and chill.

  2. It looks like the cheap G3 magazine pipeline is finally drying up, too. Fortunately they were so cheap for so long I can’t imagine needing more. It has gotten to the point where I can rationalize getting another PTR91. Still a cheaper rifle than most .30 cal AR’s.

    • The PTR, even with mags around $4-5, is still a bargain compared to the FAL or M1A.

    • It was actually in my draft, but I edited it out because I didn’t want to muddy the waters. However, I am a believer that body armour will be heading fro some sort of regulatory shenanigans pretty soon.

      • If you know a thing or two about body armor, it would make for a really interesting post. Some basic info for beginners, recommended brands or brands to avoid, and places to shop would all be much appreciated.

        • Im not an expert on the subject, and I’d be crazy to position myself out there as one. I bought a Banshee carrier after reading about how it was an excellent plate carrier for the price, and a set of ceramic lvl IV plates for about $350 from VTG.

      • Sweat has no effect on the life if plates. It is recommended by the manufacture that you replace soft body armor (not plates) after 5 years of daily wear. I think this is more about sell more soft body armor though. Most LEAs follow this recommendation due to liability more than anything. I have yet to see a test that has shown soft body armor fails at the 5 year mark or even the 10 year mark.

          • I ought to have been more clear as you are correct: the armor itself – plates – are not the issue. The soft is…and yes, some replacement is generated by preference/lawsuit safety vs. reality. Personally, I wouldn’t toss one away. But it’d be a backup unit.

  3. Great points, man.
    And you’re dead right ” waiting for prices to ‘return to normal’ or for ‘availability to return to normal’” will never happen. Normal is what it was priced YESTERDAY. Today is the new normal and it’ll cost an extra 2 cents a round. Don’t wait until tomorrow or it’ll cost you more.
    We have triple digit 30rnd pmags. We had them before I picked up anything to fit them in. We saw the value in having them to use, for parts, for trade, to give to friends in need, etc. We stocked up while they were still 9ish each.
    We have a bunch of LPKs. A bunch of stocks and grips. We have a bunch of 9mm. Because. Sale. Don’t have a 9mm yet, but we have friends that do.
    Since building an AR after having bought a complete one and I saw the savings, I don’t’ think I’ll be buying a complete rifle unless the price is ridiculously good. Completed rifle was ~850, the ones Ive’ recently built were ~600. That’s a nice savings.
    Great post – thanks CZ

  4. It’s because of idiots like you encouraging all this hoarding….

    Nah, just can’t put my heart into it. I’ve got a couple cases of .22LR from when the decent stuff was just over a Benjamin a case.

    It’s not “hoarding” if you’re simply stocking up when there’s a surplus available. I did without a lot of other toys and fun stuff during the Time Of Plenty.

    See further examples at “seven fat years, seven lean years….”

  5. I retired in 1995 an moved to Montana. I got started shooting, because I was no longer in the People’s Democratic Republic of Massachusetts or the Liberal Kingdom of Hawaii. Then came 1996. At that time rifles were going up and up, magazines were just nuts. I was shooting with a pistol that could use “aftermarket” mags only if I set it up for left hand shooting. I finally found a 15 rounder for it AT $50!

    Once the ban was over and prices started coming down, I said I would never get caught like that again. I watch for sales and buy what I can, when I can. Same with ammo. So when Sandy Hook happened, I was in such good shape I could actually afford to sell some of my “surplus” and fund some other “projects”.

    As a side note, I’m still shooting 9mm and 40 that I spent around $6-7 per box of 50 for on sale, by the case. I am blessed with a wife who at first tolerated my purchases, now smiles when she looks at what we have.

  6. Use the South Texas body armor…put your wife and kids in front. Ok, just kidd’n. Your article is spot on with the guns and ammo part, but as boring and indirect subject as it is this nonsense of being too poor to prep [limited resources] is really a disturbing and incurable part of our society and will be our number one problem when teotwawki hits. The disturbing part is we, as responsible gun owners and preppers, can’t do one thing to rectify the problems of the poor. The incurable part is the too poor to prep crowd have shown financial malignancies since birth. The Po Folks have never once tried to save, invest, or look to the future with financial responsibility. “Poor” is their terminal mindset and they are not about to let go of it. They will continue down the road to destruction by not prepping and drag as many of us as they can with them. A good case in point is my next door neighbor busted a water line last Sunday while trying to install an outside spigot. He wasn’t willing to pay the overtime and call out fee to the plumbers, but didn’t have one, not one, gallon of water stored for his family. And my front door is exactly where he came to get his H2O to see his family through until Monday morning. Do you think he learned anything from this experience…not hardly…and there are tens of millions more out there, just like him, that are impervious to common sense, reasoning, and self sufficiency…and they are coming to you for assistance once the curtain goes down on our society. Frankly, that’s all the more need to buy Guns and Ammo. thanks

  7. I have one thing to say to readers WAKE UP. This country is becoming more communist everyday. The rights guaranteed by the constitution are being taken away little by little. People, you talk about things I can only dream about in N.Y. You want an AR-15 can’t buy it anymore “it’s illegal for gun shops to sell you one. People that have have to take the pistol grip, bayonet lug, flash suppressors off, no larger than a ten round magazine ” for any firearm”. And on the AR-15 that ten rounder has to be pinned and staked so it can’t be replaced. Oh almost forgot, possession of just a high capacity magazine is a criminal offense. Which means confiscation of the firearms. Don’t just say your going to vote, get smart, research the politicians, then vote. Sorry for the rant but I don’t like to see the United States of America run down by politicians with personal agendas.

  8. For you reloaders, don’t forget primers. Just another component that is very difficult to DIY. There was a primer drought back in the early 90’s – we laughed and laughed – NOT!

    I remember $60 Glock 21 magazines . . . ugh! Once bitten – twice shy.

  9. Anyone who doesn’t buy a dozen or twenty stripped lowers today — when no-frills lowers made of 7075 alloy forgings can be found for as little as $40 (Palmetto State Armory “PTAC” brand, or Tapco lowers at Cope’s Distributing) — deserves all the ass-pain in the world during the next Panic.

    Buy a lower for every friend and relative you might ever need to arm. Then buy some more just to set them on a shelf for future trading.

    Buy the parts to complete your lowers as they go on sale. The choke-points in AR assembly are uppers, lowers, bolt carrier groups and barrels. Bare uppers can be found for as little as $40 (PSA “cosmetic blemish”), decent BCGs can be found for $90-$100 (PSA, Bushmaster, etc), barrels are not a place to cut corners but DSA makes an M4 barrel — 1 in 7″ twist, chrome-lined, GI FSB pinned in place — for $135 that may be worth taking a chance on. It’s 14.5″ long, so it needs a pinned and welded long flash suppressor to make it legal, but even then it’s still under $200.

    But parts are not likely to be significantly restricted any time soon. The Feds can block imports by merely refusing to issue an import permit. Blocking domestic production would require new laws that even with a Clinton in the White House would be unlikely to see the light of day.

    Magazines are a much more likely target than parts, so lay in an adequate supply now while they’re cheap and plentiful. GI aluminum magazines can be found for $7 (PSA) and PMAGs are $13 all over the place. Twenty per rifle is not a bad idea.

    Finally, not touched upon: STANDARDIZE YOUR GEAR. Don’t obsess about the newest and bestest stuff. Ignore 99% of the gun-rag advertising and gun-shop BS that’s designed to clean out your wallet. Get basic gear of reasonable quality, that can be maintained with the tools and abilities you have available.

    And then make sure it’s in usable condition. I just spent a week in the Baltimore suburbs with a friend who had plenty of weapons on hand in case the rioting spread to his neighborhood, but almost nothing was in “ready to go to war” condition. Optics had been mounted, but never even bore-sighted let alone zeroed with the ammo he had on hand. Weapons had been “improved” with fancy boutique parts, but no thought had been given to whether or not the “improved” parts were compatible with each other. When we got a call from a friend closer to the trouble who was needing some assistance, the only weapon in his safe that I had any confidence in was a plain vanilla Bushmaster M4-ish carbine he hadn’t touched. The tricked-out rifle with the billet upper, the $1200 optic, the “match grade” barrel, etc, might have been the deadliest thing since bubonic plague, but since it had never been fired since it was pieced together, how could anyone have any confidence in it? He would have been much better served by another 2 or 3 M4geries — complete with “obsolete” iron sights and “inferior” GI furniture and “inaccurate” chrome-lined GI barrels — that had actually been fired enough to be sure they’d work when needed.

  10. well-said, earnan!

    time for all the couch-potato “marksman” to man up and get their sticks sighted in pronto.

    when things go hot, you won’t find time, place, or opportunity for sighting in.

    DO IT!

  11. So I went to Wally World here in Virginia this morning 5-24-15 and low and behold what to my wondering eyes did appear but a case full of ammo, fully stocked with EVERYTHING! I walked out with 3 boxes (max allowed purchase) of CCI Mini-Max for $7.47 a box, The gun show were charging 15-20 for the same last month . The wife bought the Remington Bucket of bullets 1600 for $70. Maybe the drought is finally over.

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