Article – A Marine explains which state would win if the US declared war on itself

These are the accounts of the Second American Civil War, also known as the Wars of Reunification and the American Warring States Period.

After the breakup many wondered which states would come out in control of the power void created by the dissolution of the United States. There were many with little chance against several of the larger more powerful states.

The last time a buncha folks tried to leave the Union we wound up with the War Of Northern Aggression War Of Southern Overconfidence. But the notion of the US fracturing and balkanizing is something of a staple in much of the apocalyptic fiction out there (Johnstone’s ‘Ashes’ series springs to mind, as well as season 2 of ‘Jericho’, and several other works.)
It’s an interesting read and would certainly make excellent fodder for some more ‘realistic’ post-apocalyptic fiction. Although I highly doubt that, as presented in the article, Mexicans would flood the border to head back to Mexico. Even fractured and at war this country is still probably a better place to be than Mexico.
De facto, the US is already a balkanized state. Don’t think so? Compare New England with, say, the South….they may as well be different countries given the politics, demographics, economy, and political structures. California is a country all by itself. This region I’m in may as well be a separate country as well. And, man, don’t think that sometimes I don’t think it would be nice to have a wall around it to keep everyone else out. But..walls also keep people in and I could never be okay with that.

20 thoughts on “Article – A Marine explains which state would win if the US declared war on itself

    • I pretty much agree about the implausibility… but, on the other hand, the Soviet Union eventually broke up so I suppose it’s not totally out of the realm of possibility. Though, the world would practically have to be on fire and in total chaos for this to happen and if it wasnt it almost certainly will be when the biggest kid on the block isn’t around any more.

    • have you ever read the books??? read one of before you make your self look anymore foolish

  1. Really interesting read. Only real bone on contention is that I’d be shocked if Idaho, Wyoming, Montana and Utah made alliance with California vs the Midwestern states.

  2. Marines should never ever write. If he decides to make a movie I hope it’s a silent one.

    • oh really I take it you have never read a helmet for my pillow written BY A MARINE from ww2 or any one of a number of good books and the director of PLATTON oliver stone was from a another ex military dude
      check your facts before you open your mouth

      • If Oliver Stone is held up as an example, it is a bad one. How about Ollie North, now that is a Marine that can write!

        • Lewis B. Puller Jr(RIP) authored one of the BEST books I’ve ever read “Fortunate Son”.

      • Is PLATTON the movie where Charlie Sheen travels back in time to fight in the Battle of Normandy?

  3. While not trying to be overly tin-foil laden, I could see where a nuclear-armed Euro-Asian power would take advantage of a fractured US, and deploy a few EMPs to give a dying superpower that little extra push over the edge…

    On a side note, I’m wondering if anyone is cataloging all the different TEOTWAWKI scenarios, so that if it ever does occur, some lucky author out there will win a non-existent award for who got it right or at least came closest.

  4. Is it just me or is there a disconnect between the title and content of that article?

  5. I was expecting some long exposition on which state could or would come out on top. Kalifornia is the last state that would come to power in my mind. Realistically Texas would have a better chance in my opinion, but then again Austin IS full of liberals…Perhaps if the dummies in Austin were not in charge then Texas or another strong willed state like it would come out on top.

  6. In the OP you mentioned you were doubtful Mexicans would be heading back to the border. This might be true I won’t say you are dead wrong but recall even recent history about large populations moving out of militarily contested areas. In the 80s Afghans crowded the towns on the other side of the Kyber Pass. Albania, Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia had MASSIVE refugees in the 1990s conflicts, Jordan and Turkey are dealing with it today.

    There will be populations with the “this is not my fight” attitude and I suspect Juan, Miguel and a few Jerry, Bob and Johns will up and move to avoid a random encounter with the gestapo de-jure, random hate-group or actual military action.

  7. Interesting concept, but questions:

    1. This seems to be based on the idea that the conflict is geographical, not ideological. That concept is flawed. In every liberal state, there is a conservative and likely armed contingent that can press the conflict. Conservative states, less so, but conservatives are more heavily armed at the individual level. The bigger issue is the idea that circumstances or ambition will cause a competition between individual states. Most of the population of more conservative states are ideologically loyal to a concept of the Constitution not currently held by the president, congress or a majority of the Supreme Court. They have no interest in recreating the Roman Empire. Believe a person with a foot in each state, Texas and Oklahoma will NOT be enemies. Arkansas and Louisiana are safe from Texas, too. New Mexico: meh.

    2. New York and California on in the top 3? That’s difficult to calculate. NY state will be torn apart by internal conflict because NYC is liberal, anti-gun, citizens heavily subsidized by welfare, the rest of the state less so. Where is NY going to get the food to keep the city going? California is big enough, but they have destroyed their industry and tax base, and a high percent of citizens on welfare. It will get worse. Illinois is similar to both. They are destroying their economy, industry is leaving, and a bunch of folks who don’t live in Chicago are pissed.

    3. Have not read the book, but the idea as presented in the linked article of dominant states prevailing is flawed. There will be alignments of states. Example: Oklahoma and Louisiana will likely join Texas based on oil production, social conservatism of the majority population, etc. I think it’s likely that most of the Texas, Oklahoma, the South and Midwest will align. They control oil and food. The majority of the current military comes for the South. So, shared values, economic strength will drive the alignment.

    4. If #3 is wrong, the old South will more likely align, but maybe not with Virginia. Depends on what happens to D.C. The distrust of govt that will lead to the conflict will likely isolate Virginia if they remain aligned with D.C. One thing is sure: internal conflicts in those states will be ugly.

    4. Food and fuel. Where will NYC get theirs? NYC can be reduced to a major crap hole if electrical power and water are destroyed. Due to the small size and large population, those are easy targets, and a reduction of power and water by half, maybe even a quarter, will create a massive sinkhole. NY has banking, but not industry. The banks’ processing centers have been moved to less vulnerable (to foreign terrorists in airplanes), cheaper locations (read: the South.). What happens if the the banks are isolated from the processing centers?

    5. For those who believe that the current government can order the military into the conflict, you will probably be very, very surprised. If so, the internal bloodshed in the military will be fast and brutal. Whichever side leaves, they will confiscate or destroy everything they can as they depart. Remember, for the last twelve years, the military has been training soldiers in the concepts of irregular warfare. It’s not that hard to transition your thinking from “protecting against” to “using it on the enemy.” Chris has it right: the US will be vulnerable to external invasion. Pray that the Navy remains dedicated to the protection of the U.S. They have the most complete military infrastructure needed to protect us.

    Related topic: look at the number of law enforcement and National Guard. Combine every group that maybe can be use to control the U.S: military, law enforcement, neighborhood watch, and the number is still less than 5 million, against a population of 320 million, with 100 million of them armed. That about 2/3 of the adult population. Not good odds. It doesn’t guarantee success, but it certainly predicts a bloody conflict. Mutually assured destruction?

    From the linked article, (again, haven’t read the book) it appears that the premise is based strictly on population and perceived economic strength of each state. It’s a bigger issue than that.

  8. In this story, the military “went back home” I supposed that check points/gas stations/car jacking isn’t a factor – but then Ohio got taken? It seems for every 5 marines I have met, 3 of them are from Ohio…

  9. I was so insulted at the idea that AZ and UT would fall under the Peoples Republic of Kalifornia.. no way. Arizona for sure would side with Texas, NM would get crushed between them to make the logistic’s bridge.

    The concept of basing a states capacity for warmaking off current active military members is hugely flawed. I think the author wouldve had a better gauge by looking at the strength and inventory of their national guard forces.. that would be more directly related to their offensive capabilities imho.

    Which brings me to another point.. I highly doubt any fractured entity would seek to ‘re-conquer’ the Continental US. Texas (imo) would be content to be its independent self. Any military operations would be limited to defending states that wished to join its ‘nation’. Although I do find it likely that neighboring countries would try and carve off a slice.. Cuba try and grab a bit of Florida, Mexico would make a play for Tuscon and Southern Cal.. I doubt the Canadians would do much, but Russia might take a tasty look at the oilfields of Alaska.. and China would love Hawaii.

  10. Its an interesting topic. Some of the ideas may seem far fetched, but Reality often shows many crazy ideas are and will be attempted for controlling populations.

    My thoughts how authorities would maintain control. Let the population fight among themselves until the bulk of the ammunition / food / medicine / fuel is depleted. Then distribute flyers to former / retired U.S. service men, asking in return for their service, they and their families needs would be supplied. This accomplishes several goals. The population is reduced, with less options to be self sufficient. No food, needed medications and methods to maintain basic needs at home also aids in compliance. And in return, the authorities receive trained personnel already familiar with the military.

    Reading that back, its probably crazier than the original article, lol. :^)

  11. S.D. and N.D would jump in with Texes in a heart beat as would most of Mont. and Wyo. We all know that Utah would go with Mont. and Wyo. The first thing to go would be the Bridges across the Miss. River then we would take out Denver. I can see a Night of The Long Knives happening again, but it would not be ethnick as before. More on the lines of political and restoring the constitution. And remember if South Dakota was a country it would be the 5th strongest because of the nukes at Elsworth AFB. This is an event that some of my freinds in national guard have been breifed on as well as other possiable events. But their bets are on this one. They even have a Zombe event.

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