Tag Archives: pms

Metal

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I guess you have to kinda be living under a rock to not notice that gold hit an all-time  high the other day. I don’t really keep more than a passing glance on gold prices, but I watch silver pretty closely. You know, it was only a few months ago that silver crapped the bed at around $12. Today its more than twice that. In other words, silver doubled within four months. I can’t think of the last time that happened. Maybe back when the Hunt brothers were working their mojo?

Where does it go from here? Beats me. But, to my uneducated way of thinking, people flocking to metals and driving up the prices is indicative of a belief that perhaps the economic outlook is not that great. If that’s true, I think you’d do well to spend some of that precious metals money on getting your debt knocked out, some food and ammo in the basement, and whatever else you need. If you’re so uncertain of the future that you’re buying precious metals, than that future is uncertain enough that you may wanna backstop with ammo and canned goods. Just sayin’.

But…if the market tanks, people are gong to need to raise cash in a hurry to cover their market losses. And that means selling their metals. And that means a big dump into the market which, as I understand it, depresses prices. Or does it? Seems like all the rules are off these days.

As I’ve said, whatever disposable income I have gets split into three different areas: silver in case things go really, really wrong; my Roth in case things go really, really well; and cash savings in case I’m not sure which way to go. That way I’m not totally caught flat-footed if the economy tanks or if it booms.

As much as I enjoy the sexy parts of survivalism, like guns and gun bunnies, the fact is that you’ll  need fifty-dollar bills far more than you’ll need fifty BMG in most emergencies. I can’t recall the last time I had a personal-level TEOTWAWKI that was resolved by the judicious application of M193, but I can rattle off a half dozen where a pile o’ greenbacks turned out to be the multitool that fixed things.

By all means, buy some precious metals when you have the money…but not before you’ve got the really unsexy-but-more-likely-to-be-needed things taken care of.

 

Silver

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I got so wrapped up in grocery store panics that I completely missed silver crapping the bed. Can’t recall the last time I saw it drop that much in one day. Was Friday the bottom? Or will the slide continue Monday?

Silver

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Silver was down a bit the other day, and I had the treacherous combination of a few extra dollars in my pocket and a bit of impulse control issues. As a result, there’s another tube of silver dimes sitting in the safe.

Why? Well, thats an interesting question. Intellectually, I know that the odds of there being an event where greenbacks are worthless and we’re trading silver and gold like some sort of Roman market are pretty slim. And if the world collapses in on itself, its probably more likely that a box of .22 or a package of AA batts will get me more merchandise than silver or gold.

On the other hand…. we have plenty of episodes in the last 100 years where a national currency became worthless and people who had silver and gold were able to get the things they need.

Somewhere between “Current standard of living” and “Mad Max” is where the metals will be handy, in my opinion. Today, you can walk into a 7-11 and Apu might not take silver for a pack of Marlboros, and when the bombs fall and we’re all eating our children it is also likely that silver and gold won’t be very valued. But there’s that in-between….that point where the currency still has some worth but is rapidly becoming worthless, and there is the opportunity to purchase needed items. Thats the sweet spot, I think, for the use of metals.

There’s always the wag who thinks he’s being clever and original with some pithy line abou t how ‘if you can’t eat it it, shoot it, or live in it, it’s worthless’. And yet….he’s at the Kroger paying for his groceries with greenbacks that he can’t eat, shoot, or live in. Hmmm.

Now, I’m not saying that after the end of the world we’ll all be trading silver and gold for our transactions. I’m saying that its during the ride to the end of the world where the metals will have the most utility.

And…for some reason I cannot precisely express… I just feel better having some shiny metal on hand.  So…a little more silver in the safe.

 

Article – These Doomsday Preppers Are Starting to Switch From Gold to Bitcoin

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Wendy McElroy is ready for most doomsday scenarios: a one-year supply of nonperishable food is stacked in a cellar at her farm in rural Ontario. Her blueprint for survival also depends upon working internet: part of her money, assuming she needs some after civilization collapses, is in bitcoin.

Across the North American countryside, preppers like McElroy are storing more and more of their wealth in invisible wallets in cyberspace instead of stockpiling gold bars and coins in their bunkers and basement safes.

They won’t be able to access their virtual cash the moment a catastrophe knocks out the power grid or the web, but that hasn’t dissuaded them. Even staunch survivalists are convinced bitcoin will endure economic collapse, global pandemic, climate change catastrophes and nuclear war.

I’m not some dinosaur that refuses to embrace technology Because. But what I most definitely am is someone who tries to objectively evaluate the utility of something against what I envision my future needs will be.

I would think the people who froth at the mouth about “If you cant eat it, shoot it, or set fire to it, it’ll be useless after the apocalypse!” will lump bitcoin in there with gold as having no post-collapse utility.

As I see it, gold and silver (and perhaps bitcoin) have utility in the descent from “Times of Plenty” to “Thunderdome”.

Bitcoin does have an interesting use though…as long as there is internet you have a portable, secure, anonymous way to move your wealth. While getting on a plane from Dubai to London with a couple kilos of gold may cause some problems at customs, you can, I suppose, transport that same amount of wealth with nothing but a few passwords in your head.

Do I see a need for bitcoin in my preparations against an uncertain future? I dont think so. But Im also the first to admit that I am probably terribly underinformed on the subject. However, would I divert resources from other preparations I make towards getting bitcoin into those preparations? I would not. I’m just more comfortable with a mix of cash, metals, and, honestly, paperless handguns, as a method of doing commerce…pre- and post-collapse. (And, really,  most of my ideas about a sustained collapse are based on economic issues rather than comets/Xenu/rapture/bird flu/nuclear holocaust.)

However, and this is a big however, it might be prudent to dump a hundred bucks into it and just let it sit there in case it blows up again. Much like how penny stocks are fun to play.

Article – What Venezuelan savers can teach everyone else

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ASK the chief investment officer of a fund-management firm how to spread your investments and you will be told to put so much in stocks, so much in bonds and something in hedge funds or private equity. Chances are that white-elephant buildings, eggs and long-life milk will not feature. But in Venezuela, where the inflation rate is in the tens of thousands, things that people elsewhere would shun for fear they will lose value have become stores of real wealth.

The old standard for guarding against hyperinflation has always been gold and, to a lesser degree, silver. But, as seen in many wartime economies, certain goods hold their value across board… most notably cigarettes, booze, and …ahem…’personal services’. There’s a handful of occupations that are, basically, recession- and depression-proof: food, medical, weapons, entertainment, and sex. Doesn’t matter if it’s a war or a depression – everyone wants to eat, everyone wants to live, everyone wants to protect themselves, everyone wants to forget, and everyone wants to get some action.

Of course it’s kinda hard to transport some of those goods in a convenient manner which is why we have a medium of exchange – gold.

About this point in the conversation the shortsighted jump in and say that if you can’t eat it or shoot it, it’s worthless. After all, they argue, if you were dropped in the middle of the Andes with a suitcase full of gold you’d starve/freeze/etc.

This is, of course, quite true. But it fails to take into account that economic disasters rarely happen overnight. They are usually a gradual-but-increasingly-steep slope. The gold gets you the things you need to survive that drop into the Andes. Somewhere between “normal” and “Mad Max” is where the gold come into play. When the local backpacking supply shop won’t accept currency, the gas stations won’t take plastic, and the gun stores won’t take a check….that’s where the metals come in handy.

But…thats my opinion. I hedge my bets….metals, ammo, fuel, food, etc.

Whats up with silver

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I’ve been noticing that silver has been in the (mostly) below $15 range for the last couple weeks. At one point it very briefly dipped below $14, which was pretty surprising. Problem is, you head down to your local metals dealer to by some you wind up at dang near $20/oz. because of the premiums. Whats up with that?

As I understand it, delivery times on physical silver (and, really, why would you own anything else) are pushed out pretty far. Want a ‘monster box’ (500 ct.) of Silver Eagles? Pay now and we’ll call you in a few weeks when it arrives. And that’s not just Eagles…pretty much all the nationally minted stuff is backed out, too. The generics aren’t much better. Sunshine makes the plancehttes for the US mint, so getting Sunshines is also an exercise in patience. So while the generics have a lower premium than the nationally minted stuff, you’re still looking at waits for anything in quantity.

It seems that the only thing that isn’t on backorder is ‘junk silver’…the pre-’65 coins. Which makes sense since there is no manufacturing bottleneck on those…they’re already made. I want to say the junk stuff was going for around 14-15x face value the other day…which means ten dollars worth of dimes, or ten dollars worth of quarters, will set you back $140-150.

I rather like Canadian Maples and Sunshine rounds for their anti-counterfeiting measures. The Maples are hard to get right now but I can usuualy find some Sunshine Buffaloes in the ‘generic bin’.

I’m not sure where the price of silver is going but I would say its almost certainly going to go up. The days of $6 silver are, I think, gone for a long time. I’d say $15 is about the new normal for this sort of thing. Of course that can change depending on how the markets go…when the markets get wonky people run for something that holds value a little better. And, of course, us ‘anti-government, survivalist’ types always feel a little better with our holdings diversified into tangibles….ammo, guns, fuel, silver, gold, cash, etc.

If you think you want some silver and don’t mind the wait (which really isn’t even a choice at the moment) go rattle the cage of the Metals Pimp.

Article – Texas is creating a gold depository to rival Fort Knox and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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Texas does a lot of things that I think are just for posturing and maintaining their image, but I rather like this:

On Friday, Gov. Greg Abbott signed legislation that will create a state-run gold depository in the Lone Star State – one that will attempt to rival those operated by the U.S. government inside Fort Knox and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s vault in lower Manhattan.

“The Texas Bullion Depository,” Abbott said in a statement, “will become the first state-level facility of its kind in the nation, increasing the security and stability of our gold reserves and keeping taxpayer funds from leaving Texas to pay for fees to store gold in facilities outside our state.”

There’s the story that when a couple nations approached the US about repatriating their gold from the US depository there was some…concern…that the gold was ‘unavailable’. I’d be very interested to know if Texas gets to take their gold back or if some excuse will pop up about how they have to get it back over a lengthy period of time (if at all).

This is why I don’t believe in any of this we-hold-your-metals-for-you scams, or any paper representations of precious metals. If you have a certificate that says you own 100 oz. of gold in a repository in California, you don’t own anything except a piece of paper. If you’re going to go down the road of owning precious metals, then own precious metals…not a piece of paper saying you own gold or silver. Promissory notes with questionable redeemability is the whole reason we buy gold and silver to begin with.

I (usually) get my PM’s from the Metals Pimp. You may have your own ‘guy’, but if you don’t you might wanna give the Pimp a holler.

H/T to Ryan at TSLRF (which apparently is just TS these days).

Prices

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After a little bit of a spike, silver has dropped back into the low $16 range. While I think the odds of things ever hitting the stage of bartering for your life with a couple Silver Eagles is pretty slim, I still like having a little box full of tubes of them on hand. It’s some sort of primitive lizard-brain thing, but I just like the feeling of having them even if, from a pencil-and-calculator standpoint, it doesn’t make sense.

Speaking of prices going down, it’s been a long time since I saw gasoline for less than $2. I’m no economic expert but, to my uneducated eye, it appears this is a simple price manipulation by the oil producing nations to make domestic oil production economically unfeasible. If they make oil cheap enough, folks will just by it from them rather than dig up North Dakota and Canada. Simple business economics….undercut the other guy. An unfortunate side effect is that all those guys that were making bank out there in NoDak are now fearing for their jobs. A good reason to always tuck a little something aside when youre doing well…you never know how and when the fat times are gonna come to a screeching halt.

One thing prices have not been going down on is food. Meats are pretty high these days. Even buying in bulk it can add up quickly. We’re buying half a beef from a somewhat-local ranch next month and thats been, in our experience, the way to go. It’s the same price per pound regardless of cut…ground beef or t-bone…its all the same. It’s been a good way for us to buy meat but, obviously, you have to have the freezer space to pull it off. My experience, which you can read about if you search through the blog, has been that you can stuff a properly packaged piece of meat into a deep freeze and have it be just fine five years later.

On paper, its tough being a survivalist…you sink a lot of money into things that, arguably, you might never need. I’ve seen guys die with thousands of dollars tied up in things they owned ‘just in case’. The outside observer might think its a waste of money or ‘misallocation of resources’ but there’s a non-tangible benefit. It’s very much the same benefit you achieve from that other ‘waste of money’ – insurance. It buys me peace of mind and a general feeling of security which, in my opinion, does have a financial value. Still, it’s a hard thing, sometimes, to spend money on ‘just in case’ stuff when what you really want is a WarCraft subscription or a new iPad.

Of course, once the zombies rise it’ll be a whole different story and that money will look like a brilliant allocation.

Friday of Color

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Well, the Friday of Color sales I wanted to take advantage of turned out to be a bust. Of the few things I wanted, most had sold out virtually instantly. I suppose this is a good thing since it keeps me from spending money.

oos

Or, at least, it was until I noted that silver dipped down to around $15.50 today. Time to call the Pimp. Speaking of the ‘Pimp, he came by the other day with a silver round for me that he said came from someone who reads the website. So, to that benefactor, I thank you sincerely. When the zombie hordes are finally decapitated into the dustbin of history I shall praise your memory as I barter the silver for lapdances from grateful-yet-still-hot survivors at the local stripclub-turned-impromptu-fortress.

Just because I didn’t get the things I was looking for this Friday doesn’t mean there arent bargains and great values out there. Go! Shop! Acquire! Since ‘Black Friday’ has all but become a holiday I figured it was time to add another synthetic holiday to the pantheon of reasons-to-buy-stuff. Thus, tomorrows post is all about Paratus, the holiday of survivalists.

ETA: Dammit. Almost made it out of Sportsmans Warehouse without getting Friday Of Color’ed. But..but…its M855 on stripper clips! $169.99! Its the ballistic equivalent of Doritos – you can’t just eat a few.

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Silver stuff

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Silver is still below $16 and to me that is still a bargain. Even if silver drops to its old price of less than $10 an ounce I will continue to buy all the way down. Why? Because I know that it will go up again.

Speaking of silver, the Metals Pimp dropped by the other day and handed me one of these:

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Said one of you crazy guys bought some from him and told him to pass a Maple off to me. So, to that kind soul, I say ‘Thank you’! When we come crawling out of the fallout shelters to face the new, currency-less world of the post-apocalypse I’ll have a head start on every one else as I use this to purchase pre-holocaust Twinkies and post-holocaust pole dances.