The Cautious Season

I’ve been involved, in one degree or another, with the various facets of survivalism (or preparedness) for over thirty years now. (Actually forty years, come to think of it…I distinctly recall reading ‘Alas Babylon’ around junior high school age.) I’ve seen a lot of ‘this is it! hunker down!’ moments come through that never amounted (to me) to anything more than a hiccup. Y2k, 9/11, Katrina, assorted ‘asteroid/comet may collide with Earth’, threats of war with Iran/Iraq/China/Russia/NorK/Cartels, Bird Flu, SARS, Ebola, Peak Oil, etc, have all come and gone and at no point have I had to shutter myself in the house, pull the blinds, load the 870, and pray no one comes to the door. .Not once.

But…that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

So here comes the statement that I’m sure you all saw coming: And then 2020 came along…….

This year has proven to be a chimera of several flavors of apocalypse rolled into one. I won’t go into the constituent components of it because any idiot can go to Drudge Report and find at least three of them on the front page. Will 2020 turn out to be another nothingburger in terms of generating the awaited Mad Max scenario that we all anticipate eventually occurring? The famed ‘Without rule of law’? In my opinion, no. Even with the swirling miasma of various dooms pervading the land, I am still 99.999% certain that at this time next year the lights will still be on, the trucks will still be running, and water will still flow from the tap.

“If you’re that certain, than why are you still roaming WalMart clutching a printed spreadsheet of things to stockpile?”, you may ask. Valid question.

In ‘Starship Troopers’, theres a scene where the recruits have to mud crawl through obstacles as a belt-fed gun fires just over their prostrate forms…even though only one round out of a hundred, or maybe a thousand,  in the belt is live that one round out of a hundred is enough to make you hug the dirt. Same reasoning.

But over all the time I’ve been at this, it never seemed like there needed to be as much ..deliberateness… in what I was doing as there seems to be a need for now. Now it seems like every task, every trip to the store, every usage of an item out of storage, every gun oiled, every round loaded, is done with the same all-consuming care as if you were packing your own parachute. (Which, really, you are.) It’s a time of careful considerations, deliberate actions, strategic movements, and heavily-weighed options…in short, its a season of caution.

As I say, I’m not necessarily doing anything different these days…it’s just that I’m doing them with a level of focus, intensity, urgency, and pace that, over the years, has been a lot less. The curtain hasn’t risen on the worst of 2020 yet, but I think I hear the band warming up.

I have a terrible history of forecasting the future. (Although, on some aspects of precognition I’m freakishly astute.) When I predict what the future holds it may as well be a coin toss. But, while I don’t think that a year from now we’re going to be fighting over canned vegetables and eating our pets, I think there’s going to be some economic turmoil, regardless of the election, and that it will be an economic turmoil worse than what 2020 has turned up so far. I suppose that, also, regardless of the election youre going to see continued ‘peaceful protests’ but those won’t affect me as directly as the economic events. (actually, come to think of it, all things being equal, I’d forecast worse economic turmoil under Biden than Trump given any set of circumstances.)

So, to sum it up, for me it is a time of caution and purposeful movement. My level of certainty that this time next year won’t be Max Max-ville is about the same level of certainty as me believing the sun will rise tomorrow. But, as the man says, Doveryay, no proveryay. I trust the ship not sink, but I look to see where the lifeboats are anyway.

 

 

 

19 thoughts on “The Cautious Season

  1. There are real life examples in history when people didn’t prepare and paid for it with their lives. The rape of Nanking, various Native American Tribes being massacred, Nazi’s rolling over Europe, the Warsaw Ghetto, etc.

    The fact is people and groups (including .gov) will take stuff, imprison, torture and kill unless they are stopped. The best way to stop them is to fight, fight quickly and fight smart. The Polish army went up against Panzers with horses and sabers because that’s all they had, they didn’t see the threat for what is was and they were caught flat footed.

    As usual there is more than one answer. It’s not just guns, ammo, food, and bunkers. It’s also getting the right leadership, stopping corporations from running the government, and enforcing the constitution by force if necessary. That force needs to be hundreds of thousands/millions, not ones or twos.

    Even during the American Revolution there were still loyalists who didn’t buy in to the idea of freedom, same as now.

    • I like your post, but as an American with Polish ancestry I have to mention that the Poles using horses against Tanks thing never happened. Nazi propaganda. Fake news. The modern Poles are tired of hearing the lie repeated over and over again 80 years later.

  2. “[A]s a belt-fed gun fires just over their prostrate forms…even though only one round out of a hundred, or maybe a thousand, in the belt is live that one round out of a hundred is enough to make you hug the dirt. “Not to be a stickler, but either all of the cartridges in the belt fired out of a machinegun are blanks, or none are.

    I think that Civil War 2.0 is coming. It won’t turn all Mad Max, but there may be a thousand “Kenosha Kids” before it is over. The reason it won’t turn Mad Max is because the mass of Americans will never be willing to expose themselves to any risk in order to affect the outcome. Plain and simple, they are sheep.

    It was the so-called “3%” that actively fought in the Revolution, and it will probably be a lot less who will take up arms on either side in the near future. The rest of the population will hunker down and stay home. A vast majority of Americans will simply swallow hard, and then accept the outcome.

    “…In the land of the free and the home of the brave” is simply wishful thinking and a nice sentiment.

    • Your argument supposes that in a world of powered armor and drop capsules, as mentioned in ‘Troppers’, machinegun technology hasn’t advanced to the point where blanks and live ammo can be fired interchangeably in machineguns. But, even in the real world, machineguns that are independent of gas operation should be able to shoot live and blanks interchangeably…a Minigun, I would think, would be insensitive to whether the fired round was blank or not. After all, we see the barrels spin even when there’s NO ammo in the gun, so machineguns are extant that can fire live/blanks interchangeably, it seems to me.

      • LOL, i think he missed the scifi reference. Starship Troopers is one of my favorite reads and i have read a Lot over the decades. I read once that ST was taught at the US Army War College as a treatise on Why Men Fight.

        The thing about 2020 is that it isnt over yet. The big one is still to come. What will the Right do when the dims are obviously stealing the election by whatever means.

        I too have been into this since i was young. I remember in grade school thinking “now if the worst happens to this, what will i do/whats my plan”. Then I read Lucifers Hammer and realized that i had been a survivalist alll along (later i became a prepper, then a hoarder nut, then a very smart person in 2020).
        The most worried i have ever been was right after Ron Regan won the presidency. My reasoning was that Russia knew that in a few years Ron would have the military back to where it should be and if Russia was ever going to have a chance, it was going to be before the mid 80s. Nothing else has ever scared me that much, tho when the dims tried to steal the Bush election by recounting floriduh, i did load a bunch more AR mags. That was more aggravation/determination than fear. I guess age does that to a man.

        And anyone trying to eat my dog will find themselves to be a timely supplement to my dog’s food storage. Dogs are family and definitely Inner Circle.

    • “Not to be a stickler, but either all of the cartridges in the belt fired out of a machinegun are blanks, or none are.”

      There are firearms today that are electrically driven, not operated by recoil. For example, the chain gun. A chain gun is a type of machine gun or autocannon that uses an external source of power, rather than diverting energy from the cartridge, to cycle the weapon, and does so via a continuous loop of chain similar to that used on a motorcycle or bicycle.

      Considering the novel Starship Troopers is set in the future it is not unreasonable that they would be using technology found today.

  3. I’ve been wondering if 2020 is just the windup for the pitch that’s coming in 2021.

    I’m not convinced that radical Leftist Democrats can read a calendar, nor that many even know what a calendar is; they all seem blessed with the average three-year-old’s concept of time, ie., “RIGHT NOW.”

  4. Yep, 2020/2021 seems like something big could happen. However, you still have the most likely SHTF in personal health or personal finance. Hit by a drunk driver, heart attack, Big C. Job loss without a chance of finding one equal. House burns down and the insurance company says “Oooopp’s, not covered”. Just don’t focus only on politics. Do as our host here demonstrates. Just prep for anything that could affect you. Best thing I did is find the Missus’. Only took 2 trys (first turned crazy loon). Comfort knowing she has my back, as demonstrated several times to date.

  5. Good post and the Starship Troopers reference was a nice touch too. I’ve found that all this comes down to the simple choice of being proactive or reactive. Like you, I am not a good prognosticator of future events, but as I recently said to a friend, only a fool steps off the curb onto a busy street without looking both ways.

  6. For entertainment purposes, I wanted to add a real life story. In my past life in the US Navy (retired 20 + yrs) my job required us to be a qualified jumper, Parachute qualified with water insertion quals after basic static line quals.

    Years before current trends within the military the Navy and Marine Corps ran a small Parachute school out of Lakehurst NJ. Depending on requirements,,,guys could get training for basic static line, Freefall and Jumpmaster,,,all could be attained. My class of about ten guys, were a combo of Navy Seals, EOD or Marine Recon or reg Marines, all with needs.
    Given the testosterone floating around in the class nothing could or would stop us from graduating, yet somehow the instructors in the first few hours got everyone’s attention.
    The instructor stood and outlined the course, yet Highlighted and quicklly got to his punch line,,,,,”,everyone here will make the requisite jumps for each different qual and YOU will pack Your own Parachute “. Then restated those factoids!
    Things got much quieter the next few hours and days!!!
    Life really opens your eyes when you are packing your own parachute!!!
    Even with 2 parachutes for each jump, a main and Reserve!!!

    Nearly wet my pants on first few but made it!

  7. If for some reason, God forbid, the commies take control
    of the levers of government through fraud in 2020…
    We could very well see the beginning of CW II.
    Reason being, the commies will begin to implement their
    extreme agendas…Green Deal, causing rolling blackouts.
    Little energy for transportation…think 70’s gas lines…or worse.
    Loss of income due to, “No Jobs”…and everything else they’re
    wanting to implement. Not to mention their rigging the election
    process to prevent competition…”commie permanent ruling class”
    And these are just for starters…then they focus on the 1st and 2nd
    articles…Just what do you believe the Patriots will do, “once they’ve
    lost” most everything ? I believe the war which we’ve prepared for,
    all these years will materialize…if not earlier…
    Many will never live on their knees…will you ? Nor will most
    allow them to deny us what’s rightly ours…
    Because we know history, Patriots WILL fight, eventually.
    God forbid before it’s too late to win…but all the same, fight we Shall.

  8. They’re pointing out the enemy to keep you deaf and blind
    They want to sap your energy, incarcerate your mind – Dire Straights

    Americans against Americans is how we will lose our country.

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