They won’t make that mistake twice

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The preening for the 2020 election has begun. And, as usual, I look at it from a gun perspective.

After Trump won when virtually everyone expected a Clinton  victory, gun manufacturers were loaded down with inventory hey had produced in the run up to the election anticipating some crazy panic sales when Clinton won the election. As we know, that didn’t happen and businesses were stuck sitting on mountains of inventory.

Its great to have inventory in reserve to smooth out little bumps or hiccups in the manufacturing  or delivery process. Receiver milling machine #11 broke down and will take two days to fix? No problem, we have enough extras on hand to keep on schedule. Thats how it works.. But if you have too much inventory on hand, like, say, three thousand AR-15s when you normally only keep 200 in the warehouse….well, thats a problem. You’re tying up all that money, paying interest on that money, paying on the warehouse storage, and exposing yourself to the risk that the market could go soft and those rifles become worth a lot less. And…that’s exactly what happened.

You and I saw some amazing sales in the world of guns for the year or so after the election as distributors and manufacturers tried desperately to turn that inventory back into cash. And, half a loaf is better than none, so a lot of guns got sold at a loss or break-even price. Great for you and me, not so great for some of the vendors who got caught without a chair when the music stopped. (Most notably, US Sporting Co which owns Ellet Bros.)

So, what do you think will happen this next election? Gun industry folks will be very, very cautious about getting too deep into inventory or manufacturing. And that means …scarcity. Which means….Econ 101, people..anyone? ..Bueller? Bueller?…it means you will not be seeing $399 AR’s after the election. Even if the the race looks tight, and a panic buying market emerges, I think there will still be a huge reluctance on the part of manufacturers to ‘go long’ on production like they did in 2016.

The practical up shot, as I see it, is this: if there’s gun stuff you want, buy it before the election season really heats up because the usual every-four-years panic buying will occur and with reduced availability of product there will be some higher prices.

 

20 thoughts on “They won’t make that mistake twice”

  1. Amen.

    And, after buying “what you need” <Aug-Nov 2020, buy spares. Then spares for the spares. No matter which way the political sand shifts in Nov 2020 prices will rise, and Ellet Brothers isn't the only ship with little or no water under the keel.

  2. You make good reasoned points, always reasonable to be prepared. Especially if its firearm related, which garners a lot of ‘We have ban the things NOW !!’

  3. You can never have too much of anything.
    Keep getting ready, winter is coming.

  4. All well and good to have a few AR lowers, a few more kits. Bury a few ghost guns. Mag prices probable won’t come down, so take care of that. But, ultimately, there are going to be plenty of AR’s available in the black market and as battlefield swag. Your real financial focus should be on ammo. That is the soft spot, and one the bastards will probably exploit first. Ammo first ( enough for a multi year insurrection, not just a few disasters or riots ), extra Mattel Toys second.

    • You’re spot on. Firearms, magazines, and spare parts are of no value whatsoever without ammo.

      1000 rounds per center-fire caliber is a good starting goal. Then work your way up to 1,000 rounds per firearm.

      There are many gun owners in the US, but I’d wager most of them have little more than enough ammo for their next trip to the range. A gun without ammo is worth less than a pointy stick.

  5. win or lose in 2020, prices and availability will never be this good again in our lifetime. they already are working on the next step, ammo, having decided banning semi automatic arms is within reach. this is just a minor slowdown in their “long march” that ends with us on the trains. i ain’t getting on no damn train.(yes i know that’s not grammatically correct, it’s called poetic license. get over it)

  6. When the shooting starts, be sure the right people get shot first. Going toe to toe with the foot soldiers is exactly what the elitists want us to do. Chop off the head first.

  7. quick question for C. Zero…where are a couple of good, reputable dealers you would recommend to get a $399-450 bare bones (with a few adders) that you might pass to me? appreciate any info. thanks for you blog–been reading for a long time

    • Read your question carefully and ask yourself ‘babre bones WHAT’?

      • ar15..I just want to add what I want as I want…scope, suppressor…in colorado you will not find an AR for $400-450

        • You can watch the sales at Palmetto State Armory, they were, or are still, offering AR15 kits minus the lower receiver for $329.

    • Gunbroker has lots of used ARs S&W M&P-15s, etc. in the $450-$500 range. S&W’s guarantee follows the gun, too. Not a bad way to go.

    • If you plan to flip them for a grand during a panic get the cheapest stuff out there and stash a few new PMAGs per gun to include.

      If you plan to use them I would up the budget to about the $650 range where you can get a S&W MP or a Ruger both of which are actually pretty decent rifles.

    • Bear Creek Arsenal has great products at great prices, you might want to check them out too.

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