Stopped by the coin shop to see what the story was on PM’s today since silver did go down a bit(!). They were not selling. Period. Why, I asked. They had silver rounds sitting right there in the case. Why not sell them? It seems that they could not get a straight answer from their suppliers on how much the premium for restocking would be. The premium is what you pay over the spot price….the premium is basically the markup. Until last week, my guy was charging $1 over spot. So if silver was $11, I paid $12. If it was $10, I pay $11. You get the idea. When the dealer restocks, his vendor charges spot plus their premium which is usually less than the premium youre getting charged. It has to be, otherwise the dealer takes a loss. So, my guy has silver to sell but if his vendor charges him a $3 premium and and he, in turn, charges me a $2 premium he loses money on each sale. Being unable to get a straight answer about what his restocking premium would be, he cant figure out what premium to charge customers. So…no sale.
I walked every aisle in my local Albertsons to see what was thin in this increased panic buying. (Make no mistake, as I view it with my own eyes it has increased.) Paper towels, toilet paper, disinfectant, beans, canned beans, rice, pasta, jarred spaghetti sauce, instant potatoes, canned vegetables, canned soup, canned fruit, canned meat, pancake mix, stuffing mix, all were gone or greatly reduced. The meat department was down at least 50%. That was a little odd to see. Meat trays? Gone. Remaindered meat? Gone.
At the post office, everyone in line was keeping about 4 feet away from the person in line in front of them. No one lingered to talk to anyone.
No lines at the gas station yet. Nor lines at the bank. But as the penny drops for most people I fully expect that to happen.
I know people in ‘big states’…the high-population ‘big city’ states…and some of what they tell me, in terms of panic buying, government response, and marketplace changes is pretty out there. I’m glad I live where I live, although a cabin in the middle of nowhere with a good internet connection would be about perfect right now. But, my classes are now online and I don’t have to deal with people face-to-face if I don’t want to, so it could be a lot worse.
I’m spending the evenings re-evaluating my own preps and making notes. I would guess this is the most … active….bit of national hysteria since the Cuban Missile Crisis. I’m fascinated by the government (fed and local) reactions, as well as the reactions of the sheeple who suddenly realize a six-pack of Charmin and a few cans of Dinty Moore are not enough.
Even though it’s still early in this crisis, I’m making notes of what to differently in the future, assuming this eventually settles down to a ‘new normal’ which should be a fascinating normal to see. I’m not anticipating a failure of electricity or water, although it is certainly in the realm of the possible…although reduced availability seems more likely than a total dryout/blackout….but I need to get the angles on that just in case.
And, because interesting times are worth remembering, some pictures from my explorations…all from the same grocery:
You know it’s a bit of a panic when ‘spot price’ becomes theoretical. My dealer usually ships within 48 hours – placed an order last week & they just say it’ll get there when it gets there. I don’t mind, but it tells me spot price is just a function of paper margin calls right now.
People are pretty well-behaved around here for now, but we’re seeing people on the ‘wealthy side’ (now infected) flee from their urban homes to the family summer home out here to ‘ride the disease out’.
I live in a smallish southern town (<10k) and yesterday went to walmart to to see for my self, touring all aisles like you did, CZ. I found pretty much the same thing on canned goods, tho we still had canned fruits and Beanee Weenees. Also still had all the dried and fresh potatos. Fresh fruit/veggies section was fully stocked, as was the meat section.
About a dozen packages of paper towels were still sitting on the shelves but not 1 roll of tp to be seen. Bottled water section was empty but there was plenty of it on aisle ends (maybe the waterhogs are wearing blinders?). Cheese was normal. Sugar, flour and baking stuff was wiped out, but bread was full.
I picked up a few bags of chips and noted that the Doritos regular flavor had been hit Hard.
It was early am and not many folks in the store but everyone was pretty friendly. EVERYONE was using the sanitary wipes at the door which is very unusual here. On my way in, I did see a guy coming out with multiple 5 gallon gas cans he had bought. Gas is dropping in price here and no lines, tho my wife overheard someone worrying about that on Sunday.
We've been eating out the last few days on the theory that we may not get out for a while and it isn't widespread here yet and the places we frequent (local mom and pop) are all but deserted. And they need the sales. I admit it is nice having the places and roads almost to ourselves. I suspect that the tp and water buying will drop off since the entire internet is universally making fun of those folks and its hard to go thru a 72 count package of tp very quickly. And of course people finally realize that Wuhan isn't going to turn off their water somehow.
People are losing their mud over an issue like kung flu I can imagine what it will be when the shit really gets real. Gun store in Las Vegas nearly emptied of stock, runs on ammo at Sportsman’s Warehouse, no produce in the store. China claiming the US military planted the virus.
If history predictions are accurate: Next comes another great depression then a world war. The cleansing begins.
Jimbo, please it is not the”Kung Flu” that was the Hong Kong flu,this is like naming hurricanes Wuhan flu or “Wuflu” makes sure we know where US released the Bioweapon. Unless bats are doing gene splicing from 5 different viruses-then we really have problems !
I’ve been traveling with work and haven’t done the normal shopping lately. Kids are at home and I wound up taking the youngest with me to Walmart. At 3pm we arrived and the parking lot was packed. We went right as we entered towards the pharmacy. Plenty of bandaids, and such. Next isle meds not one single travel pack left of aspirin ibuprofen all allergy meds gone, all vitamin c and immune boost gone. Zicam zinc gone. Guns and ammo good to go.
We headed to the part of the store with food and such. Yup no cleaning products. However they rolled out two pallets of dish soap while we were there, think orange colored Ajax. Except it was the Fabolouso brand in all Spanish. I found that interesting and resourceful.
On to the food or what was left.
No stick or tub butter, normal load of milk, only small bottles of coffee creamer, eggs normal, cheese normal. All bacon gone, even the turkey bacon stuff. Normal load on all the hot dogs prepared deli slices, sausage ect. Ground beef gone, no chicken breast, few NY Strip and no pork to be found.
Beer isle well stocked.
Soda water fine.
No brown sugar or sugar, flour all types gone. Olive oil 3 mega containers left. No cake icing. Zero peanut butter no jelly of any type, unsalted saltines were available, mixed bag on normal crackers. No pan cake mix maybe 10 bottles of syrup. No cereal that your kids would eat. Canned fruit only the cocktail mix left. Only lasagna noodles left, zero Mac n cheese. Soup hahaha same with beans and vegetables.
I met the store and grocery managers on this isle.
I asked how long this had been at this depleted level. He said 5 days. He said the Brunswick stew that’s forever on the pallets went 3 days ago that usually takes 4 months to move. I asked on fresh veggies and fruit he said no issues from their vendors and that was his one bright spot. Deli he said no issues either. Bread isle looked like a Hurricane was coming.
All in all I won’t take the kids again anytime soon. We’re out in a semi rural county but it was a weird vibe.
Two other observations 1 there were two employees cleaning the hell out of the checkout areas using a strong bleach solution and 2 they had 3 pallets of canning jars with all the other needs. Not sure if that was just seasonal or them simply push products to hide gaps from supply chain disruptions.
We’re going to be taking note as well for what we’ll be increasing our stockpiles of when the supply chain more or less catches up.
I’m hearing predictions of a second wave this fall so there is a time table for the restock.
I’m also updating household security where I can. Nothing major, unfortunately, but replacing a half dead motion light (integral LEDs as well) and upgrading a gate latch to one that can be padlocked will happen later today.
We’re also keeping our front light on to help deter dirtbags and letting our 2 large dogs have the run of the house at night. Although the dogs will likely still spend the entire night cuddled up to us.
Steelheart
I read somewhere this morning that PAPER silver is $11, but PHYSICAL silver is unavailable or $23.
Sounds about right.
I was shopping for bargins at the $12.42 spot silver level yesterday and everyone, EVERYONE is low/out on product…
When you CAN find product (cough) junk silver (cough) the prices were $7-$9 above spot. $1 face value junk silver, .715 oz silver content (should be around $8.90) was $16.99 out the door. ANY 1oz round was still at $16.
I called to confirm orders that were already in the pipeline were indeed shipped, and told them that while I know the companies can’t take these prices in the shorts (buying at $15, but market drops to $12.75) I’m not buying a $13.50 (with their usual mark-up) product for $16.50. Brad, on the other end, understood completely and told be that even with these prices people are buying whatever they can get.
This whole thing is an enormous ball of Fear.
Took delivery yesterday of my order from Thursday and expect one last one (in the mail) tomorrow. Even at higher spot prices, I paid far less than the current ones (if you can find stock). I’m going to see what they look like in a couple of weeks but I suspect the trend will be upward after all this paper price margin flushing. SOMEONE is buying the paper or COMEX prices would be in the 8s and 9s right now. You might look into pre-ordering upcoming product such as AEs (U.S. Mint is out) or Canadian Maples. That way you can lock in the premium now for a total cost of whatever the spot is + P. I did with JM yesterday AM for 2020 CDN Maples for $17.01 each. Delivery on or about 6 Apr. Yes the premium was high vs the wishing price but I think that’s about the best phiz price I could possible get paper prices not withstanding. A lot depends on how much the industrial usage of AG drops.
Went to WallyWorld yesterday morning to get a couple of flats of fresh eggs and all had been restocked as normal with some empty spots but very few. Heavier than normal traffic though with many very full carts for that time of morning. Schools have all closed and things are quiet except for some construction on sidewalks going on. The GF is spending a lot of time with her elderly mother so I’m batching it for a while. Looks like a bacon and egg sandwich for breakfast.
Regards
Central California (aka Prius-stan)
• Recon to Winco (regulating # of persons entering at one time), WM (no regulation, because little to no canned/packaged food, plenty of fresh produce).
• No readily apparent signs of: gas lines, closed ATM
• Panic buying continues, in a county that has two (2) reported cases of virus.
• State, County and City restrictions in place, growing more so everyday.
• Monitoring: Will San Francisco’s more restrictive policy spread politically throughout State? Will the policy reduce “verified cases/day”, assuming unbiased reporting by State?
• Monitoring: HUMINT suggests that “harvesting” (individuals traveling into less impacted areas to buy up supplies for black market resale) is occurring, but cannot yet verify. Target HUMINT confirmed that store in Los Angeles had people storm the loading dock to demand toilet paper be “handed over” even before it had been unloaded.
• SIGINT: LEO cross-talk seems normal → slightly more intense, with respect to reported altercations in parking lots over people hording supplies. Less reliable I believe. Still monitoring.
Mustang0268 sends
A friend of mine is in Hanoi considering coming back. He says that from Vietnam everything in America looks like a shitshow right now.
My response to him…
“Everything is fine, given the situation. Those who are unprepared – and/or is prone to normalcy bias – have gotten a shock, and are jumping around trying to get things done. The local and national media feed off the relatively few associated images of panic-buying, then amplify them…and amplify them over and over again. This has been a multi-week cycle of ”If it bleeds, it leads“, and the media has created a picture of mayhem that simply doesn’t reflect reality.
This media coverage – the *real* shitshow – has in turn driven (particularly local) government to make some over-the-top decisions.
I disagree with some of the decisions that have been made, and some of the actions that local governments are taking. That said, however, I can live with it, and things are fine.
*****, you said it yourself…”Everybody lies“. There is no shitshow back here; people are just being people doing what they do, and there’s a ton of smart mitigation going on. The media is painting a false picture. Who suffers? Who benefits?”
Plus even a descent into an American shitshow is still an upgrade from a Vietnamese standard of living. They should aspire to American shitshow.
Different culture, WAY different expectations.
My friend got asked to leave their hotel as they are shutting down. Can’t get a new booking, and short- and long-term apartment rentals won’t rent to them because they’re American. The country is closing just like this one is.
But their shitshow, as you say, will be much worse than ours.
Last year I took the plunge and retired early and moved full time to my off grid cabin up the Blackfoot River corridor. We joke that we live right on the edge of the earth, but there’s a hell of a view. I did a last minute supply run yesterday to Wal-Mart and was there when they opened at 0600hrs. They had about 15 packages of TP that sold in the first couple of minutes and then the (new) normal shortages or complete lack of staple food products. I was surprised at how few people were there at that time in the morning, but thankfully took advantage of people’s inherent laziness by getting my shopping done without being crowded. I did hear that the local Costco was a mad house when they opened for business. On a good note, I washed the city out of my system by returning home and getting out and hiking and subsequently smoking a large male coyote with my 1955 Winchester 94. Going to work today on getting my bulk non ethanol premium and off road diesel stocked up while prices are low. Hope you all can hunker down and keep your powder dry.
since your in the Blackfoot river area, you got any comms up, ham
or gmrs.
I’ve just got a couple of hand held Chinese brand hams, but haven’t programmed them yet
if you got a program cable: https://geekprepper.com/program-a-baofeng-radio-with-chirp/ and https://trac.chirp.danplanet.com/chirp_daily/LATEST/ worked good for me. mostly line of sight here, the nearest GMRS repeater is in Hamilton. I have not been able to trip it. granted these little units are only pushing maybe 4 watts.
Thanks, I’ll give it a shot
if you do, come up on GMRS channel 17, 462.6000 evening hours.
Our governor here in NC has just ordered bars and restaurants to close today (3/17/20) by 5pm eastern with takeout or drive through the only option. THAT
should get everyone else’s attention who hasn’t seen it yet….redclay7
Similar runs on the grocery stores and box stores here in semi-urban southwest Missouri. I do wonder, truly, in places like Utah, given the high Mormon population and their alleged penchant for prepping, if things a little more calm/sane?
Stopped at the coin shop that I deal with.
Eagles are $24.00 each
Asked why— because that is what the dealers want for replacements.
I passed.
Been some time since I stopped by. I see the blog is humming along, good deal.
North Georgia: Pretty much the same as the descriptions above. Last Thursday night, our Governor made a speech about the pandemic that got people’s attention. Friday morning, hordes of retiree’s swarmed into town, and pretty much bought out the two stores that sell groceries in this county. I went in early, the following Sunday, not much to be had. I was amazed to see the churches empty, with signs saying services were cancelled. In 32 years of living here, through thick and thin, I’ve never seen that before.
Very glad to see you here. I hope you’ll check in every so often!
p !, hope you and yours are well. we’re just hanging out in Free Virginia waiting for the rev II. take care brother.
Both my kids are coming home, we are pretty well stocked up. Never experienced anything like this before and there have been some surprises. Good to touch base with you again.
I live a little bit north and west of you in the Flathead. I work in the grocery industry… It isn’t pretty. I work for a company who has a store in your A.O on Reserve. Warehouse in Spokane is beyond destroyed. We also have restricted store hours so we can try and stock/clean if we get things in. Other big box stores up here are wrecked as well.
We typically try for a grocery order of around 800pc cases (just center store grocery, not meat,deli,diary,etc) Today we ordered 3500pc. We know most of it isn’t coming but we are trying. The emails from manufactures are not promising and must SKU’s have been dropped so they can focus on single sku production.
It is going to be a very bumpy road that I think will take quite a while to recover from. Although the part that worries me is the long term economic impact of all the shuttered businesses around the country.
Should of bought Sun. before market opened,lowest premium$.15 to total$15/oz junk 40%. At open with premium $16/oz. Paper shorts took it below $11.50 yesterday premium almost 50%. Grocery stores here cut hours to “clean” but no hiring to do “cleaning”. Rationing on expected items but deli closed(prepackaged only),hot food closed,meat counter closed(prepackaged in coolers. Only allowing 10-15 in store at a time. Saturday I was there and left as lines we backed up to far end of isles and checkouts were very slow(ebt problems) a group just jail broke and got away with many carts of groceries.
Fabulouso is good stuff,The go to cleaner of mexican maids throughout the US
Any word from commercial/resturant supply side? With restaurants/bars closed how are they coping with warehouses full and shipments arriving-especially pershiables(no product going out)?
I wish people would get it into their heads that things will NEVER be the same as they were. We will forever have shortages going forward. Not necessarily everything, but there will be a bewildering array of things that will be very difficult to locate. The next shoe to drop will be a very serious surge in inflation. Basic supply and demand on top of the insane levels of fiscal injection by the Fed into the banking system.
The ways of 2019 are as gone as the days of “Leave it to Beaver”.
Son lives in CdA, lots of shortages at Wally, and Winco. Use yourn top knot.
If anything is to come out of all this…. It will be the continuation of obesity in America. All the panic buyers sitting around trying to eat an extra 15,000 calories every day.
I have a feeling the credit card companies are laughing it up right now. There’s no way the average family goes binge shopping like this with money they just have sitting around.