Another weekend, another couple items on my list moved ‘into the green’. While I was at CostCo picking up oatmeal and hand sanitizer I noticed that the seemingly endless social distancing annoyances are fading. The directional arrows to encourage one-way traffic in an aisle? Gone. The “Please wait here until called forward by cashier” signs? Gone. The red tape on the floor marking where to stand with your cart while in line? Gone. Requirement to wear a mask? Still there. Can’t have everything, I suppose.
Having finally gotten the house paid off has freed up enough cash from the monthly budget that spending $50 a weekend on ‘preps’ is a less than zero sum game, budgetwise. I need to start moving some of that available money into my Roth, cash savings, and metals.
The hardcore among you will say that I’m foolish to be putting money into my Roth when the economy is going to come crashing down any day as the BIlderbergerTrilateralCFRIlluminati sre only moments away from executing their grand plan to crush the US economy and get the Blue Helmets out on the street.
Look, I’ve been a survivalist for over thirty years…I’ve needed $50 bills far more often than I’ve needed .50 BMG. And being a survivalist means you prepare for the future…and if the economy doesn’t come crashing down, I want to be ready for that too. So..I continue to put money into the markets through my Roth. And, just in case, I also put money into silver. And, for those middle-of-the-road emergencies…cash. And none of those strategies, such as they are, are preventing me from making progress. Putting money in my Roth isn’t leaving me vulnerable and unprepared against the boogaloo, and preparing for the zombie apocalypse isn’t keeping me from making smart moves with my Roth and savings. I can do those things at the same time.
Right now, I don’t see the economy imploding and turning us into a crowd of Steinbeck characters standing around a campfire trading .22 cartridges for gasoline. So, what do I think is going to happen?
Unemployment is going to stay high for the short term, GDP will improve but still be negative for at least another quarter so not a recession in the technical sense but, really, a recession, and the market will continue to gain until the election, when all bets are off.
Whats that mean to me? It means continue to live well within my means, buy now what I think I may need later that may not be available, buy and hold when something in the market looks underpriced, steadily and consistently buy a little metal here and there, and put back as much cash as possible. Think about the effects of a hobbled economy and what risks and opportunities it’ll present.
What should you do? Beats me. Your situation is unique and you are the most qualified person to evaluate the courses of action you should take. But, the one thing I can recommend to you is this: think. Don’t just daydream when you’re in WalMart about “Oh, maybe I should get some of these…” or jawbone with your buddies “If it gets bad, I’m gonna…” Get away from the computer, find a quiet place where you won’t be disturbed, sit down with a notebook and a pen, and actually, actively, purposefully…think. What are your liabilities? What are your priorities? What are the risks to you? What can you stand to give up? What are you willing to do to make your position more secure? What opportunities are you aware of that may present themselves? Whats your worst case scenario? Whats your most likely case scenario? “I want to be resilient enough that if XXXXX me and the family will be okay for the duration”…great, now plan how to get there.
Very few people build anything well…a car, a house, a relationship, a life…by just spitballing it and going about it half-assed. Some people do, and thats more luck than anything else. Luck is for rabbits. Don’t rely on luck. Find what it is your worried about and then come up with a plan, a strategy, a course of action and behavior, a roadmap to get to the position where that thing you are worried about becomes something you’re not worried about.
My life is not yet nearly as resilient as I’d like it to be. But it has reached a point where it is leaps ahead of many other people’s lives. I’m not unsinkable, but I can withstand icebergs that would crush my neighbors. So..I’ve got that going for me, which is nice.
i haven’t been to the costco yet…they won’t let you in without a mask at all?…i haven’t worn a mask since day 1…pretty sure the wife unit had this shit week of Christmas…in my 54 years on this planet i’ve never seen anyone have the flu and have a fever over 100 5 days in a row…3 days over 103, the other 2 101…me and the kids, nada…she spent 4 of those days in bed hardly able to move…so i’m not really worried about getting the crap…
You are reading my mind!
I think just like that.
I watch and listen to different outlets, trying to stay aware.
I too have been a survivalist since the late 70’s.
Am I where I want to be? No. I am always striving to be better prepared.
Thank you for not dumping this format.
Best advice I’ve seen on the intarwebz in a long time.
Well said, maestro.
ROWYBS.
Very sound advice, sir. I’ve been prepping as long as you have and took this approach in the 1990s with the goal of being as well-insulated economically as possible. During that time I had a co-worker (also a prepper) that became a good friend. He was constantly trying to cover his bases for every possible contingency and spending his very limited money on every gadget under the sun. I repeatedly tried to warn him that he should prioritize his spending and primarily prepare as I was for the most likely scenario of economic hardship as the US and world economy degraded to where it is today. But he was so fixated on the sort of PA world you noted (survivors trading with 22 shells around a campfire) that he never changed course. Over the years we worked together he was constantly in financial distress. I parted ways with him when I left the company before it was hollowed out to a shell of its former self. We still occasionally touch base and I found that to this day he is unable to retire (approaching 70) and live on (non-existent) savings and Social security. He remains a slave to a bad job at an bad company and his paycheck-to-paycheck lifestyle. Good guy with a good heart, but now he’s stuck in the bad spot he was working so hard to avoid. He has tons of prep supplies that are of no use in dealing with the situation in which he’s now stuck. Very sad.
Thanks CZ for an elegant and thoughtful post. You nail many points that I’ve thought long and hard about, and I’ve been in a prepper mindset since I was a boy scout in the ’60s. There will always be an endless list to be worked on, but prepping, if you’re doing it right should give some peace of mind in knowing that you can handle whatever comes along.
Along with the basics of food, water, and shelter, one of the most overlooked is sanitation and hygiene. I’m very fond of hot showers. What do you do when the crapper won’t flush because there’s no more running water? Well, we have backup plans up to and including digging and erecting the old time outhouse. I’m convinced that a major cause of die-off of the marshmallow people in the early days of TEOTWAWKI will be because when they get hungry enough, they’ll eat spoiled crap they shouldn’t. Vomiting and diarrhea can kill in a matter of hours if untreated.
One of my biggest issues now is learning to work around those “limitations of age”. I can’t hump a duffel all day like I used to; don’t have the stamina anymore, but I do work to maintain muscle mass as best I can.
The best prepping is not “stuff”. It’s what’s between your ears. I may not be able to do it all anymore, but I can teach skills on a thousand different topics, and that will make me valuable to any team or community that will have me.
A balanced long-term approach to prepping?
Heresy. Burn him at the stake. Confiscate his can opener. Etc.
The correct answer is “panic buy everything right now and to hell with the credit limit.”
Good post Zero.
I am of the prepare for SHTF with hard goods ( food, meds, guns/ammo ) but don’t ignore the present reality and, as you put it correctly, getting out of debt and having a cash cushion readily available for the more likely emergencies that happen in one’s day to day life.