Texas forecasting

If you read around on the internet, it seems that more than a few ‘news outlets’ are printing articles about ‘what went wrong in Texas’ and it seems that there’s quite a bit of finger-pointing at Texas’ “independent” power grid. The implications being made are that such individualistic endeavours are not good for the public interest and those Texicans need to have their power infrastructure regulated and managed on a more federal basis.

Forecast? Be prepared to see lots of political-types urging ‘solutions’ that all involve that independence being legislated away.

46 thoughts on “Texas forecasting

  1. The focus has been on Texas, but in reality, the power outages occurred in 15 states – aka the flyover or ‘red’ states. Considering that the HAARP system has been able to ‘steer’ weather systems for a couple of decades, it seem that there has been a bit of a punishment meted out on those states that dared to vote for Trump.

  2. When what really happened is the Texas idjits in charge opted to scrap tried and true energy supplies for “green” alternatives, that fail in a cold week or two.

    Which is Red Forman’s cue to yell “Dumbass!”

    Far more likelier than legislating their independence away, they’ll be scrapping “green” dumbassery, and swapping back in gas-powered pipeline apparatus, and coal and nuclear plants instead of more frozen wind farms and solar panels built to fail under snow and ice that lasts more than a day.

    Those windmills may get used though, for some fine public hangings.
    Texans will know to wear their BBQ guns to the festivities.

    • Wind turbines work fine. I have two to supplement our solar system. Many northern states have wind turbines that don’t freeze up. The problem with the Texas wind turbines is that the do not have de-icing protections on them because they never thought they would have a really hard freeze.
      A nuke plant was shut down because the coolant froze.
      Well heads froze for natural gas which power plants need as well as homes.

      What happened was due to multiple cascading events. Wind power in the winter is very low and I would bet that it played a small part in this large freezing event.

      We are entering the Grand Solar Minimum, so be prepared for crazy weather.

      • Say that wellheads on natural gas froze, huh. Any idea what the freezing point of natural gas is? Because other than a minor amount of oil range condensates, there is nothing else in a natural gas pipeline or wellhead.
        And yes, i worked in the oilfields.

        • Also, do you realize what the temperature of the oil, gas, and saltwater is that comes out of a well?
          Wonder why the canadian wellheads didnt freeze……… /s

          Folks, if its clickbait, dont take it seriously even if it does fit your worldview.

        • I will take your word for it, since you worked in the oil fields.
          Interestingly, this article says otherwise.

          https://www.theverge.com/2021/2/17/22287130/texas-natural-gas-production-power-outages-frozen

          The Pitless adaptor in our water well is 4 feet underground. I put our well in top of a hill about 100 feet high with four 2,600 gallon tanks. I did not want to pump the water twice, and it is gravity feed to the house at a little over 40 PSI (.43 psi per foot in elevation) . It gets the winter sun all day so ground freezing is less than a foot in the middle of winter.

    • This mainly a failure to do basic preparation-the forecasts were more than a week out but no measures to prevent or deal with the outcomes were taken. I have multiple relatives across Texas,all used to northern winters and none had problems that weren’t easily prepared for(generators/heaters/ extra food and water).

  3. No doubt, that’s a given…
    communists fear independence…besides, if they take
    total control they’ll be able to brown out the entire state.
    Now amplify the Texas fiasco by 47…that’s their ultimate goal.

  4. Texas bragged about being independant, were proud of the fact that the Feds couldn’t tell them what to do because most of their electric infrastructure didn’t cross state lines. ‘..screw you guys, we do what we want haha..’ attitude.

    When the down side of deregulation just kicked them in the nuts they turned to the Feds crying ‘…we need HELP!…’

    Average retail price of power in Texas is about $80 per megawatt (MW). Here in Arizona it is $120. That’s the up side of independance, lower prices. Power plants in Arizona can sell excess generation at a big profit to California, Utah, Colorado, Oregon, etc. most any state in the west and even Canada because the western system is interconnected.

    Texas CHOSE not to be interconnected. They can’t buy/sell power with neighboring states. That’s the down side. Wholesale power went from $22 per MW to $9000 a MW and still hospitals shut down because of no power.

    Everything works well until it doesn’t, then you better have a back up. Texas had no back up.

    • It’s no such a matter of backup as it is of idiots in charge. ERCOT had the same or better warnings we did and yet they opted to not spend the money needed to properly winterize and insulate the areas that failed as well as the gas backups. See my other post where I mention the 5 member of the ERCOT board that do not live in Texas and are not Texans. The biggest problem of all is our dumbass governor will provide plenty of lip service and that will be the extent the repairs. Sort-of like him going to claim Texas a 2A sanctuary. Yea, we’re still waiting for that.

      • ERCOT is a puppet regiem controlled by TU to give the illusion of oversight and take the heat off their executives for management failures. Follow the money. They are just an added layer of beauacracy to fleece the ratepayers out of more money. I’ve dealt with TU in legal proceedings and they are so powerful it’s hard to find a lawyer in Texas that is willing take them on.

        Montanta and Wyoming have pretty good reliability because they run the system properly and they deal with cold weather all the time.

  5. Wind farm generators froze out, natural gas production was curtailed and energy demand jumped up BIGLY. A Perfect Storm that hit Texas in a big way.

    Not much to do with independent power source, no way could locations away from Texas supply the power demands we needed for a short time.

  6. Left to its own devices Texas will figure this out without help from the bottom feeders in DC. You can bet those junk wind turbines will be sold for scrap. Old Slow Joe aka Uncle Fudd better not mess with Texas.

  7. Long time reader. First time poster. And very proud Texan. Yes, our power grid failed. And the news media will have you believe that we sat here helpless. Crying. Freezing and waiting to die. The loss of life is horrific. But considering the entire state went grid down it’s amazing it wasn’t so much worse. What the news media isn’t telling people is how we helped one another. People who had shared with people who didn’t. Generators, fuel, firewood and water were deployed by Texans. Not the effing government. Trucks with four wheel drive pulled others out of ditches. It’s the fire departments, churches, and local breweries that are delivering clean water. Not the national guard. Offices that had power turned into temporary shelters for their employees. What we didn’t have was looting, chaos and panic. Texas is inherently the best. Yes, there was failure of unimaginable levels and maybe a state power grid isn’t the best option. But stop focusing on that and focus on how we came through it. That’s what prepping for a grid down situation is all about – how we survive it.

      • Which will get there a week after it’s needed, and not do anything constructive, until they send in money afterwards. Around March, or April.

        FEMA couldn’t manage cleaning up a wet fart in their own underpants, on their best day.

    • And don’t fail to mention “Mattress Mack” in Houston that, once again, opened all of his Gallery Furniture stores to anyone that needed to warm up, sleep, eat, or live for a few days. One problem with your comment is that we shared with each other. Most of us did to some degree but, when a person fails to learn a lesson from last summer when we had to brown out to supply a portion to Louisiana power. We sat in 100 plus for more than a couple hours. Yep, those neighbors that we shared with didn’t learn anything so they got no help this time around. It sounds hateful but I will not risk mine for those that make no attempt to help themselves.

    • “When the down side of deregulation just kicked them in the nuts they turned to the Feds crying ‘…we need HELP!…’ ”

      –nothing kicked me in the nuts, and I don’t know anyone crying to the Feds. I don’t pay much attention to the Free Shit Army, so maybe I’m missing it, but that group always is crying about something. Lotsa idiots thought they could get a free lunch with Griddy, entered into a contract they didn’t understand, and called the rest of us stupid. They didn’t know they were gambling, and that the house always wins. To bad. Like many life lessons, sometimes it hurts.

      As far as the disaster declarations and FEMA goes, if we can get some of the money we send to DC back to spend here in Texas, I’m all for it. As far as waiting for FEMA to save us? Anyone who believes that is dumber than a bag of hammers.

      I shared the means to heat their homes with 3, and to cook food with 2 of my elderly neighbors, gave plumbing supplies to 5 neighbors (who then FIXED THEIR OWN ISSUES), helped another get his gennie running, and I’ll continue to help as more people get their systems back on line.

      I am FAR from unique in this. We understand local disasters and what we need to do afterwards. We’ve told the Red Cross and FEMA to go F themselves on numerous occasions when they overstepped their roles.

      When you hear news reporting and attacks on TEXAS, instead of gloating, you should be asking yourself WHY am I hearing this? Why are they reporting THIS? We are not the only ones affected by this storm. WHO GAINS by the reporting? WHO GAINS from any changes?

      Griddy customers bet that prices wouldn’t rise. They lost.
      Robinhood was invented to provide a pool of suckers to cash out the big boys.
      Christmas lights don’t hang themselves and neither did Epstein.

      “When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins, As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn, The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!”- kipling

      n

  8. Sounds like a bunch of folks talking about something they don’t know anything about…again. The Texas grid is regulated by ERCOT which is in turn regulated by the TUC. The problem with the our cold out was the wind mills were not properly prepped, if prepped at all, for the storm. Because all the tree hugging energy types like wind and solar are state and federally subsidized they know out the backup systems like gas plants, etc. That cannot compete monetarily with the subsidies. One of the worst things about this is that at least 5 of the board members of ERCOT don’t even live in Texas and one of those is in Canada. All of this shit is pure political theatre the left has capitalized on because of our 24 unfortunate deaths related to the storm that could have been eliminated had they had the common sense to pay attention to the market as it fluctuated because of the then upcoming storm. Bottom line is there are alot of things wrong with our system and too many non Texans think they know how things are here, like the halfway AOC for example. Things do need to change but how and when is the real question.

    • Please disregard the mis-spellings. It seems that Samsung knows what I mean more than I do. For example, halfway AOC was supposed to be halfwit AOC.

      • And don’t forget to mention Texans KNEW this was coming for over a week and many failed to prepare for it. We should have had vehicles fully gassed before, with spare drinking water and foods requiring no cooking already at home.

        Those people learned the hard way. Even Texas has dumb asses.

  9. Lots of blame to go around here, but building a grid that doesn’t allow you to purchase power from other states/grids seems like an inherent design flaw to me.

    • It also means you can’t be dragged under when they go grid-down.

      Ask the entire Northeast U.S. about what happens when a squirrel three states over chews on a power line.

      Texas’ problem was not independence, it was thinking sunny days were endless, with zero back-up plans for bad weather – or any other contingencies. That sort of stupid has just reached a teachable moment in every county.

  10. I see an amendment to the Texas state constitution; the one that prohibits an income tax… ‘Just sayin’…

  11. For anonymous at 11:02,

    Yes, we in TX had about a weeks warning. And some people did prepare. Some did not know how to prepare, having never experienced this level of cold before. I am from northern Illinois and did know how to prepare…but even I did not expect to lose power for 3 days. It wasn’t due to equipment damage; they just shut our power down and sent it elsewhere. There really wasn’t much of “rolling blackouts”. I think there were multiple policy failures as well as failure to weatherize as ERCOT was advised to a decade ago.

  12. We live full time off the grid at remote location 6,300 feet elevation on 120 acres surrounded by federal lands. We are 100% off grid solar. We heat with wood. (We have a propane heater but have never used it) When we built the house we used a plumber from a small town that is in the mountains and only gets a few hours of direct sunlight a day in the winter. The first thing he told me is insulate your foundation stem wall. I put 4″ rigged foam board insulation, R28, inside the concrete forms, with the foam board on the inside and the concrete stem wall on the outside. The next thing he told me is that no plumbing can be in any exterior walls, especially the north facing wall where it never gets sun. The concrete stem wall is a foot below grade as well as the insulation to prevent thermal bridging. All plumbing is underground and comes up at the center of the house. Lastly, everything is plumbed with Pex tubing which has the ability to expand to some degree if frozen. I put a remote thermometer under the house and the coldest it has ever been is 45 degrees F. The crawl space has never been heated. The natural temp of the earth keeps the temp fairly constant.

    In regards to generators, we have a 15 kw, 1800 rpm slow speed, propane, generator. It has a dedicated 575 gallon propane tank. I mostly use it for welding. If we have a few cloudy days I can fire up the generator and top off the batteries in a few hours.

    The home propane tank is 1150 gallons (975 gallons when full). We use about 200 gallons a year.

    In my opinion, and first hand experience, if you have a Honda 2200i or a Honda 3000i, get the Hutch Mountain propane conversion. You can use up to a 40 lb propane tank with either one. My EU2200i uses about a pound an hour. After they install the Hutch Mountain Conversion, the generator will be able to use propane or gasoline with a turn of the switch. The advantage of propane is that it stores forever. Put a few 30 lb or 40 lb tanks in your garage or shed and you are ready for the grid down and your generator will start up right away because there is no bad gasoline in it to gum up the carb.

    3600 rpm generators have a service life of about 1,000 hours or less. The slow speed 1800 rpm propane generators have a service life of 8,000 to 10,000 hours.

    When it comes to grid down heating of your home, there is nothing like a wood stove. There are no moving parts.

    https://www.hutchmountain.com/?gclid=Cj0KCQiA4L2BBhCvARIsAO0SBdY9Kg9EMHCqs7eaEoSWRExHeA8tFtJApLFCI09s1IUPoTjaa9rsr1gaAnq5EALw_wcB

    • Thanks for the conversion info, my EU3000i started right up and provided steady clean power for our network rack, fridges, freezers, and a space heater until I could get the bigger gennie up and running. I just wish it would do 220v without buying another unit. Eventually, I’ll add another, if only because two is one and one is none.

      Anyone looking for more power than the 2000i suitcase gennie provides would do well to look at the 3000i. It has electric start, is quiet, and on eco mode is very thrifty on gas. It is about double the size of the 2000i, but it’s double the capacity too. Recommended.

      n

    • HighCountry
      Thank you for this great info. Options are great to have. I’m going to hope they have similar for Yamaha generators. Both Honda and Yamaha are great pieces of equipment. Mine only gets occasional use, but has been quiet and reliable.

      During this recent cold snap the only plumbing issue I encountered was a vapor lock on my sump pump which was easily resolved. It is a shame so many didn’t think to drain their pipes, but it was perfectly understandable. It was a true combination of issues beyond the norm. Lessons to be learned for us all, whether we were effected or not.

  13. The glaring thing I see in this is how if trump was in office the media would be screaming 24\7 he hasn’t done enough to help Texas. Where is that screaming from the media that biden hasn’t done enough?? All that I’m seeing is how Texas failed doing this, not prepared for that…rinse repeat.

  14. I agree with Zero – the attacks in Texas, and the exaggeration about how bad things are, is largely because this is Texas and their grid is independent…Did you notice how most of the complaints were from big cities and from people too stupid to be ready for it?
    This is in a state that regularly gets tornadoes and hurricanes yet most urbanites have only a small box of ‘hurricane supplies’ (I’ve seen my in-laws so called stash – I had more in my vehicle than they did for their house!)

    • How many of those urbanites recently migrated from California and other places with the “government will (must) always take care of me attitude”? I live in rural northern New England, and typically lose power for about 6 days a year, sometimes a lot more. Usually for a few hours, but sometimes for more than a week at a time. This past December, I went to bed when it just started snowing and in the morning I had 42 inches on the ground. It often goes down to -20 and sometimes as low as -40. I have a wood stove with 2 years worth of firewood stacked at any given time. I have 5 generators, a 4 kW solar system, kerosene and propane heaters and plenty of food to last a LONG time. I’m not wealthy, and this level of preparedness has required a lifetime of going without a lot of niceties like cable TV – in fact now that they shut down the local transmitter about 2 years ago, I have NO TV. My newest vehicle is 14 years old. It’s a choice I made and don’t regret it at all. I will help neighbors when they have a problem (I’m a volunteer paramedic with my local rescue squad, too), and then when the problem is over, we discuss how they can improve their preparedness situation. If they refuse to get on board, I won’t help them a second time. Most of the people around here have a fierce independence streak and are pretty self-sufficient. I can’t be certain, but I’m pretty sure that most of the rural Texans did just fine, and it is the urban Texans screaming for everyone else to DO SOMETHING!!

      Just like a dog that gets skunked; there are those that learn the first time, and the rest will never learn.

  15. End of story is we have just as much corruption in our local and state gov as the fed gov has. Follow the money. We had a state regulated well built grid to a semi- unregulated “profit machine”. We have high rates. We DON”T have a good grid anymore. What are we getting for our money? Power mad corrupt gov “officials” somehow getting very wealthy is all I see. Note, we don’t have Constitutional Carry and we don’t have a state income tax. You should see our property and sales taxes. Texas is a myth. Born and raised here. Seriously thought about moving out of this state but too old and too unhealthy.

    • Having been to 49 of the 50 states, and having lived in 5 before moving to TX, I’d encourage you to look at property taxes and energy costs elsewhere before declaring TX’s to be ‘high’.

      If you’re really old and crippled up, you should have a homestead exemption, a credit for disability, and if you’re a vet, there’s even more relief.

      And sales taxes? F me! Look at Chicago, or Miami or LA. Would I prefer that ours was lower, sure, but it’s not ‘high’ by any stretch of the imagination when compared to elsewhere. And besides, for years you got a credit on your federal income tax that should more than cover your sales taxes and likely will again.

      You linked CC and state income taxes like the lack of both was a bad thing. I can’t imagine you meant to say the you’d like a state income tax? When I lived in Cali, my state tax was 9% of whatever my Federal was, and that was on top of all the .gov fees and sales and property taxes.

      As for grid reliability? I’ve had a whole house generator sitting on the pad for the last 7 years and haven’t paid to connect it because our grid is so reliable that it was never a priority. Our only outages were from cars taking out poles or substations.

      Do some research and discover how good you have it. And if your research says otherwise, move, don’t bitch.

      nick

      • @nick
        Well the fact that A NATIVE TEXAN doesn’t worship at the idol of Texas offends you? So you tell HIM how to feel or STFU? Nice!

        The great thing about this site is people don’t attack others.

  16. Read an article a couple days ago that detailed why TX had grid problems. Seems that the push to be Green was the basic problem. Not only have they shut down coal fired power plants, but they switched all the pumps in the natural gas system to electric. They used to run on the NG in the system, but some bright bozo wanted to push being Green to an absurd level. When the electrical system went down, it took the NG system with it. Everyone involved with that conversion should be fired and maybe jailed. That constitutes criminal negligence, in my view.

  17. You folks dumping on TX, please tell me ANY state you’d rather live in for its political climate and freedom loving. Maybe WYO.
    Nobody’s perfect, guys. Like another poster said, we all make mistakes- smart people Learn from those mistakes.
    Look around when a crisis hits and the ones you see poking fun and making political hay are not people who you should trust.

    disclaimer: worked most of a career in TX and felt right at home (except for the stifling humidity in houston).

    • The problem with states without income taxes — and many with — is that the burden of taxes is disproportionately placed on property taxes and literally taxes the retired and those who have lost their jobs out of their paid off homes.

      I don’t know all states taxation schemes, but I do know some, and the so called homestead exemptions income levels haven’t been raised in decades, and only apply to ppl over 65. So if you were age discriminated out of the workforce early to damn bad for you. The state will take your home or you’ll be forced out of it.

      Taxation is at obscene levels. All these govts are out of control and piss away our tax dollars on pandering, fraud, waste, and corruption.

      “Crippled” may not be eloquent but I’m sure piling on to his frustrations really helped. That’s sarcasm guys….

      Tango, at least you weren’t nasty. I wanted to better express what I’ve seen personally in such states.

  18. Thanks for Hutch Mountain conversions. I have 2 Honda generators and ordered 2 kits this morning. Thanks cz posters.

  19. Didn’t help that EPA limited production to 60% capacity. Screewed by the Feds. We need to outlaw Fed interference in Texas’ affairs.

  20. Considering how weather patterns have been changing, there is a good chance that there will be more events like the Texas freeze. Those in the halls of power have three options:

    – Ignore the threat and hope it never happens again,

    – Spend buckets of money and make the electrical grid more resilient against weather events like this past freeze, or

    – Mitigate the risk by enabling electricity sharing when needed with other power utilities in other states.

    I suspect that with the high cost of hardening the grid and theTexas “live free or die” attitude, they will opt for ignoring the danger and do nothing. So if you live in Texas, have a plan b for dealing with the cold and a lack of power.

  21. “So if you live in Texas, have a plan b for dealing with the cold and a lack of power.”

    –why do you think it will be different in other places? If you live in the crumbling world, better get ready to make your own power…

    Cali can’t continue exporting their pollution and importing power. If the generating states need it themselves, they will be disinclined to share. How will that work out? Ditto for the North Eastern states and all those places where it gets cold EVERY year, not just once in a couple of decades.

    I think we’ll be just fine down here.

    n

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