This is interesting, if a bit sobering. It’s a simulation of a conventional war going nuclear.
(H/T to RobertaX for the above information)
Do I think something like what is going on in Russia will lead to a big nukefest like in this video? No, I do not. I have always firmly believed that the next time someone opens up a can of nuclear whoopass it will either be some terrorist group with a stolen nuclear artillery shell from a collapsed Soviet Union, or, it’ll be two smaller powers settling long-standing grudges (India v. Pakistan, Israel v…well..everyone, etc.)
Nonetheless, the possibility does exist and as such it’s probably not a bad idea to pivot your preps a little in that direction. Dean Ing’s book ‘Pulling Through’ tells the fictional story of a family hiding out in a basement for two weeks waiting for the fallout to drop, and the movie ‘Threads’ will stir you so deeply that you’ll rent a Uhaul and go loot your local WalMart pre-emptively.
I remember back in the 80’s actually going to my library and doing this sort of research on my own. Fascinating how the times have changed to the point that I can get all that info without the days and days of prowling the stacks of government bulletins and reports.
By the way, I am notoriously wrong when it comes to predicting the future. But…war doesn’t make economic sense. Sun Tzu said the greatest victory is the battle you do not have to fight. Quark says that you should never spend more than you need to for an acquisition..If Putin can get what he wants when the price is low, that is to say without having to spend men and treasure, he’s going to do that. If Ukraine can get what it wants when the price is low, that is to say without being invaded or occupied, theyre going to do that. We’ll see if I’m wrong, but I see this going the way of the Cuban Missile Crisis…backroom and back-channel deals are made to nip things in thebud before they get too out of control.
Forget economic sensibilities: It made no sense for the Germans and the British to go to war in 1914. They were on friendly terms, the Kaiser and the King were cousins, they both had mutual economic interests, etc., and yet within weeks, they were knocking each other off by the tens of thousands a day on the front lines.
The generation of Russians that remembers WWII is mostly dead, so there’s no one there who remembers in their bones why war is a bad thing, and Putin misses the glory days, so to him, the lemon is worth the squeeze.
What he needs more than anything is a good reason not to do it, or to find something else with which to tempt him, and right now, nothing is grabbing his attention.
that’s before we get into the centuries-old Russian inferiority complex, mostly deserved, and their millennia-old fear of invasion, both from the Huns, and Mongolian hordes. They’ve shot effing airliners full of passengers down because they’re insecure and frightened, when there was much more at stake and they were ten times more competent in every sphere.
I expect them to screw the pooch by the numbers, because now, the only things they’re really good at are stupidity and oppression.
Ukraine, OTOH, makes the Kazakhstan parody of Borat look cosmopolitan and capable by contrast.
We should be sending them all the mines they can plant to put up at the border, telling them that’s all the help they’re going to get, and that they should stop egging Putin on, and ought to otherwise STFU and try to look unappealing. Announcing fake outbreaks of plague and cholera within their borders to induce people to stay away would not be amiss.
Aesop you are far smarter than that, this posting is almost in the league of your posting saying WE Should GIVE the Ukrainians a Mid-Range Launcher and some Nukes, then tell Vlad about that.
Brilliant. Mostly crazy folks with US Nukes.
The “evidence” that the Russians shot down that Airliner is ragged at best, far more evidence is the Ukrainians did it thinking they had a target lock on Putin’s plane that happened to be in the area.
Neo-Nazi Ukrainians installed by “Fuck the EU” America are not as sane or reliable as your anti-Russian attitude seems to indicate.
Plenty of stupid people with axes to grind in this scenario. I’d not be surprised if the small country with a Palestinian Problem or Turkey (who has been proven to have enabled the Kazakhstan Color Revolution to the tune of 10 Billion US Cash for their failing Lira) would be the false flag to insure a “Small Nuclear” incident.
Not hard to locate an older Soviet Union Nuke for a False Flag, IF you have the ability to restore its firing mechanism to order.
Economically viable? More wars come from small miscalculations and EGO-Emotion and seems from our “Diplomatic Efforts” Russians seem to be the Adults in the room.
Aesop, your very intelligent but a “Man has to know his limitations”. Neither of us has a real lock on the behind the scenes troubles a brewing.
Google Korean Air flight 007 before you say the Russians didn’t shoot down a plane full of passengers.
Marine83 Ukrainian zone. I could look up the number of the American Airliner the US Navy Shot down near New Jersey you know. Errors occur.
No Saints in this world. When you bust someone publicly look in the mirror first.
Matthew 7: 3 Why do you see the speck that is in your brother’s eye, but do not notice the log that is in your own eye? 4 Or how can you say to your brother, ‘Let me take the speck out of your eye,’ when there is the log in your own eye? 5 You hypocrite, first take the log out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to take the speck out of your brother’s eye.
Just saying, no disrespect intended.
Michael, you are probably a “young whippersnapper” who doesn’t remember this: https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/korean-airlines-flight-shot-down-by-soviet-union
About the “Plan A” video, readers might benefit from checking out http://www.nuclearwarmap.com. The effects of a nuclear burst on a specific city can be found there, as well as a nuclear war scenario that will play out over two minutes.
For the latter, the target’s identity, the likely yield of the weapon used, and whether an air burst or a ground burst would be used is indicated. The likely fallout pattern is also indicated. Some readers will be pleased with the information provided (as in finding out that they are not likely to be in the blast or fallout zone) and others will be alarmed when they find out their own situation.
One thing about a Russian-Ukrainian conflict that interests me is that the Ukrainians are supposed to have an active duty military composed of 250,000 personnel, with 900,000 reservists. They are reputed to be fierce fighters. If that is so, it does not appear that a Russian invasion of 130,000 troops will be a cakewalk. According to a December article in Forbes Magazine, Russians had 1200 tanks poised to invade Ukraine. Ukraine had 900 tanks. By comparison, Germany has 245 tanks.) Sure, local superiority at particular points in the attack will probably be the deciding issue, but the Ukrainians are well-armed, and they can be expected to put up one helluva fight.
Just how many body bags is “Vlad the Impaler” willing to accept being returned to Mother Russia? Yet, it seems as if it will be very hard for Putin, after having spent so much money in moving troops to the Ukrainian border to simply back down and go home. Such a move will be viewed as a sign of monumental weakness, and being viewed as weak is not something any Russian politician wants.
The Russians may have superior technology, but the usual attacker vs. defender ratio seems to be in the Ukrainians’ favor, at least to the point of making any Russian victory a very bloody one with very serious losses.
Survivorman I suspect that Putin has his plans and diplomatic hopes. I ALSO Know that the Russian Armed Forces have learned their lessons well in Chechnya (second try VERY Successful, hunting down the insurgency to the last man).
Russian Armed Forces have successfully defended quite well from our Tomahawk Missile Strikes (thus neutralizing one of our main Naval and Aircraft standoff weaponry) and adapted quite well to Drone Combat tactics.
OUR Armed Forces? Please list Our combat successes against 3rd world goat herders if you please. Start with Afghanistan if you don’t mind.
And We had total control of the Air in Afghanistan, I wonder how that will be within effective anti-aircraft missiles. It’s been decades since American forces went after a Near Peer Army.
In case you didn’t notice a lot of NATO is hemming and hawing about combat troops for Ukraine. Maybe they know something our Media isn’t telling us? So far it’s merry ole England and some minor players following the Sockpuppets leadership with France, Germany and Italy saying NO.
I also suspect IF NATO (Read US Puppets) had actually honored the agreements when the USSR was dismantled about NATO not going “One Inch” closer to Russia this whole situation would not have been needed.
Did you bother to read the Diplomatic “Demands” that the USA “Diplomats” shit upon? NATO backs off putting nuclear capable “Defensive missiles” in former Soviet countries. Honoring the International Agreements of NATO when the USSR was disbanded.
How would WE like it if Mexico allied with Russia and had Russian “Defensive-Offensive” Nuclear Missiles across the river? OH, AND they did so in Canada also. If Ukraine becomes NATO THAT is Russia’s situation.
I wonder how we will like having some Canned Hypersonic Sunshine dropping in if the Sockpuppets handlers or rogue 3 letter agency actions force the Russians nuclear hand.
I’d NEVER back a nuclear armed nation into a corner, would you?
A pretty high price to protect Hunter Biden’s Income from Ukraine, don’t you think? The BIG GUY would lose his 10%. I’d think the Sockpuppets China interests should be ample cash?
There no saints in this business.
There may be “no saints in this business,” but there is even less logic in your diatribe.
You pose a series of questions and ask me to defend “my position.” Please utilize some reading comprehension skills and find for me one reference in my comment to 1) NATO, 2) Germany and France, 3) US ground troops or air attacks and their capabilities, 4) Russian nuclear missiles in Mexico or nuclear missiles of any country in Ukraine, 5) backing nuclear armed nations in a corner.
I am tiring looking for more inconsistencies. You made straw man arguments against what I never said so as to make it look as if you “won.” Logic is not your forté.
The fact is that the only thing in your earlier comment that I even addressed was the fact that you seemed to be blissfully unaware of the Soviet downing of the Korean Air jetliner, something that is historical fact and which is not subject to dispute.
As they said in “Star Wars,” Luke Skywalker, “Stay on target! Stay on target!”
Ok, Survivormann99 you WIN.
The Article is about Nuclear War and Ukraine and your Absolutely Correct that the Russians did INDEED shoot down that Korean Airliner.
Do you have a dead drop PO Box so I can mail you some Sunscreen SPF 2000 as your reward for winning?
Baby Duck,
KAL 007 wasn’t shot down by Ukraine, and black helicopter conspiracies regarding imaginary incidents off our own shores don’t cut any ice.
Aesop I respect you and ask you to Please show your work in proving your comment.
You’ve never been afraid of long posts so I will have a cup of coffee ready. Maybe on your blog as to be kind here.
Scary Shit. I could see this happening. Living in Hampton Roads it would be all over real quick.
Yes sir. I left Hampton Roads 6 years ago for Maine. To many ‘enemies’, both foreign & domestic, loitering around there.
Well, if this happens, I think it sure ain’t going to be a reenactment of the movie Red Dawn.
“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
― Albert Einstein
100 million casualties would take care of those high bacon prices, though.
I heard an interesting piece on the radio this morning, claiming that from the Russian perspective war isn’t likely, that it is the US government and media pushing for it.
They also pointed out that to be successful, the Russians either need the ground to be frozen, or dry so that tanks have cross country mobility instead of being limited to roads. The winter there this year is unusually warm and wet, so the conditions are wrong for a successful invasion.
Personally, I’ve looked at the number of troops deployed and I don’t think it’s enough to take the country; I think Russia is either sabre rattling, or just looking for a chunk of Ukraine.
I think you are correct in your assessment that there will not be a nuclear exchange.
In politics, like everything else, in order to understand what happened, what is happening and what will happen, you must follow the money. The Biden family it was just reported got something in the tune of $31 million from the CCP, so we know where their loyalty lies. Companies that are in bed with China and the CCP, like Apple and Nike, also give tens of millions in bribes ( campaign donations ) to our politicians, so we know where their votes are going. The oligarchs, on both sides of the pond, have been shifting money and power to China for decades now, and do not want to see their new darling hurt. so there is that.
China is going to invade Taiwan. Japan and the US have said this cannot stand. How are the CCP’s allies in the West going to protect them?
A deal will be cut with Putin. Russia will be given a large portion of Ukraine and they will take possession of it with troops. The US and NATO will act horrified, and wring their hands and bemoan the evil Russia. We will pack up and send a hundred thousand troops to what is left of Ukraine where they will sit on their asses for 9 months or so. Nordstream II will send Russian gas to Europe, everyone will get over it, and the “crisis” will de-escalate.
But… while that little drama unfolds in Ukraine, China will take Taiwan. The CCP owned politicians and Biden will “rage” at the evilness of China’s timing and state that there is just no way the US can respond to the second front with another near peer adversary. Japan will not have the guts to go it alone without the US carrying the majority of the burden and Voila, just like that, Winnie the Pooh controls the world’s semiconductor industry, which averts his political crisis at home. Mission accomplished, China wins, Russia is blamed, China backers make lots of money, Taiwan is sacrificed, Japan looks impotent, and the balance of power in the world shifts irrevocably.
You heard it here first. Have a wonderful life.
Einstein had it right. The reason for the possibility of Nuke war is for the military industrial complex to make obscene amounts of money out of fear that there will be one, and more obscene amounts cause we will avoid it at all costs but conventional arms will still be the weapons of the day.
Comarada Emperador Pantalones de Caca and his cabal of minions & lackeys are so adamant about getting the Ukrainians protected, because he doesn’t want the cash flow into his dipshit kid hunters and his bank accounts to stop.
As for the results and Einsteins theory being correct, after even a limited nuke fiasco when all is settled after the long term die-offs, leading to chaos, anarchy, everything shortages and unavailabilities, we the survivors, will all be living in a “World Made By Hand” (J H Kunstler) anyway. And what the outcome of that new world will be is anyones guess, assuming there is anyone left to guess. But I highly doubt of those who do survive and build a new world they will remember the mistakes of the past. For some reason it seems that the human species is the only one that is smart enough to record their past, but still too damn stupid to keep from repeating it.
I suspect Putin is making eyes at Ukraine as a way of getting the world to accede to his crimea acquisition.
He may be thinking that by appearing to be a threat to all of Ukraine, the world might do a Neville chamberlain and trade Crimea for ‘ peace in our time ‘.
Am I the only one who noticed that one notable country of interest comes out on top, unscathed in that simulation? That would be China. Who are we finding out has a lot of influence over government officials and institutions in this country? That would again be China. The question now would be, does China have enough influence over the right people to encourage the US to go to war with Russia?
Ok, well, this is reaching back a couple of years but since the mention of nukes was made,
https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/USDHSFACIR/2017/02/03/file_attachments/765901/Planning%2BGuidance%2Bfor%2BResponse%2Bto%2Ba%2BNuclear%2BDetonation.pdf
Your tax dollars produced it. Might as well get some benefit.
n
Wars are fought over religion, wars are fought over real estate.
Always have ben, always will be.
Sorry kids, I can’t get wrapped up around this axle with you. I don’t view it as a football game that we can win. Whether “we” have the best..offense, defence, quarterback or coaching, it all stinks.
Ukies vs. Biden/Barisma/The Big Guy/The Little Guy with Laptops and Coke and Hookers, Nordstream 2 cheerleaders led by our own “F the EU” Vicktoria Baby.
With social scientist, extraordinaire Wendy Sherman “the former lead negotiator with the Iran NucDeal” and “$2billion cash on pallets” now in on this, what can go wrong?
She was lookin’ “tough” in the photo op donyathink?
If Moscow is deploying S400’s in the city proper, what can go wrong? If Brandon may send a “few troops”, to who f’n knows where, what can go wrong? If Vladimir is talking with Germany et. al “on the side”, what can possibly go wrong?
Not saying this isn’t real, yet or it can’t be. Just saying it ALL STINKS! Moscow deploying S400’s on city streets. Oh yeah, NYC, where are yours? DC, “What’s in Your Wallet?” Most of Vlad’s ships are at sea. Have you checked your own USNI?
Has everyone lost their collective mind? Or is this now “Kabuki” Theatre?
“Oh Lord, Please Don’t Let Me Be…Miss Understood” 🙂
I hope in 3 months on April Fools Day to report back, as “Chicken Little” Cluck, fn Cluck. Out.