“Past performance is no guarantee of future results”

If you go hiking in Texas and then go hiking in Colorado, the environment must be exactly the same, right? I mean..you hike in Texas, you hike in Colorado…hiking is the same everywhere, right?

Darwin: No.

Seems pretty stupid on its face, but here it is:

“These hikers said they did not understand why it was so cold and rainy in Colorado, because it has been ‘so hot in Texas’ where they hike all the time,” rescuers said.

Mother Nature has no no sense of humour about these things. Look, it’s 90 degrees out this weekend and even though sitting in my truck is like being in an oven I still carry a heavy coat, rain poncho, sleeping bag, and other cold/wet weather gear in my truckbox….year-round.

But, interestingly, there is a bit of a cautionary tale and lesson here: just because something went one way when you experienced it does not necessarily mean that a similar experience will beget similar results. Hiking in Colorado doesn’t mean you will have the same experience as hiking in Texas…so plan accordingly. The lesson there is that just because you survived [name of experience] last time doesn’t mean that you will this time.

Made it through the inflationary period of the late 1970’s? And its gas shortages? That doesn’t mean that you’ll weather the current one. The things you did to mitigate negative outcomes that time may not work as well this time. As the guys at the brokerages say – “Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Don’t get complacent and think that just because you made it through the last blackout, shortage, pandemic, hurricane, etc. that you will therefore make it though the next one by doing the same thing.

The military has that saying about how we’re always planning to fight the last war. The implication being that we assume the next one will be like the last one and therefore whatver we learned from the last one will stand us in good stead on the next one. Sometimes that’s true. But survivalism isn’t about trusting to ‘Usually’ and ‘sometimes’.

6 thoughts on ““Past performance is no guarantee of future results”

  1. Goes in reverse too. Palo Duro Canyon just closed trails. Let’s see. 105 in the shade (what little there is). No water. A lot of big rocks sucking in that heat just to radiate it back onto you. No breeze (it is a canyon after all). Yup. Rangers had to do multiple rescues to those not use to the heat and did not prepare.

    • Been on many a hike in Palo Duro Canyon in all seasons. You had better bring plenty water and suitable clothing and head gear in the summer. The dry heat will dry you out and the sun reflecting off of the rocks will sunburn you fast if you are not suitably prepared. Dangerous in the winter too. Used to not be very many rescues back 50 years ago, but back then people had a bit more sense. And don’t forget all of the shale slides and other poor footing. One time when I was there, a woman who fell 300 feet down a shale slide and broke her back was being rescued.

  2. This is not rocket science, but apparently in todays world where everything known to man is available at the touch of a finger, the intelligence of the average person has vacated the premises. Any one with more than 2 brain cells to rub together can figure out the average elevation in Texas is 1700 ft. and the average in Colorado is 6800 ft. Well no shit Sherlock, it’s gonna be colder. And these people actually are able to dress themselves in the mornings, apparently! Maybe their mothers do it, I dunno.

  3. this is why our BOB’s are big. Water and ammo are heavy. Got to prepare for a range of things to happen not just one. Cold, heat, darkness, sun exposure (love the old style space blanket) dry, wet, guns, knives, fire, fuel, food, pots and pans, etc. Most of us pretty much have it covered but obviously the Darwin effect is still working. Sometimes 911 won’t answer.

  4. This tells me that one. They most likely voted for Joe Biden.
    Two. They think Jomentia is doing a fantastic job.
    In other words they are leftist educated idiots who should never leave a large metropolitan area run by Marxocrats.

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