Some light reading for Saturday:
If Russia launched a weapon from international waters just off the East Coast, people in cities like New York, Boston, and Washington, DC, might have just 10 to 15 minutes to prepare.
“You wouldn’t even have time to go get your kids from school,” Irwin Redlener, a public-health expert at Columbia University who specializes in disaster preparedness, told Insider last year.
Arguably, the American public is not as prepared or educated on what to do in the event of a nuclear attack as Americans were during the Cold War, when fallout shelters, , and air raid sirens were in place across the nation. So here’s a minute-by-minute guide to help.
Llikelihood of the classic Reagan-era all-out nukefest actually happening? Pretty small, I think. But all it takes is one thermonuclear weapon to ruin your whole day and , besides, this information may prove to come in handy some day.
The Russians have already said they would detonate a nuclear weapon in the shallow coastal waters to create a radioactive tsunami up to 100 feet tall to wipe areas clean with no warning and almost no chance of survival in targeted areas. They also have hypersonic missles that can not be defended against and may only have a few moments of warning,but unless you live near a top tier target you would not have to worry until later waves of attacks on vital infrastructure. Russians have stated use of depleted uranium munitions we are senging to Ukraine would be viewed as”dirty weapons” attacks and responded to accordingly(dirty bomb top 25-50 NATO capitals/sites?). Remember the stated goal is to reduce world population to 500million the rest as fertilizer on Bill Gates recently purchased farmland. THEY WANT YOU DEAD. Happy glow in the dark
They can nuke every blue piss-hole on the eastern seaboard, for all I care. Way too many ferals stinking up the place.
While I live on the other side of the country, Tim, and while I share your contempt for Eastern libs, your comment is among the lowest form of Neanderthal thinking that I have ever seen.
Aside from the blatant and abject immorality of the basest form, America’s dependence on the East Coast would make any catastrophe there a blow to the entire country’s supply chain, standard of living, and financial stability.
I suppose that if you live alone in a Unabomber cabin and scratch out a living in the American Outback, you would be more insulated than most Americans, but your hermit world would still be badly damaged.
Comments like yours give survivalists/preppers/Self-Reliants a bad name, and they provide support for the view of some that we are all crazy.
The discussion is about nuclear attack on CONUS. Where you you prefer they attack?
Cities are the obvious targets, and most of them happen to be dark-blue. I don’t make them that way – libs did. So be it.
I note that you didn’t disagree with my characterization of your thinking: “I suppose that if you live alone in a Unabomber cabin and scratch out a living in the American Outback, you would be more insulated than most Americans, but your hermit world would still be badly damaged.”
You’re a retard, “survivor man”. These people hate you & want you dead. Your girly-mind believes you’re going to negotiate with them. You’ll be dead – and no one will miss you less than me.
Okay, Tiny Tim, we’re well down the ad hominem path. Your reply at the bottom is hilarious. You have no idea about who I am, how I think, or how I deal with anyone.
I know, let’s have a spelling contest.
The Russians know that if they nuke the blue cities, the US will end up a lot better off in the long run (after lots of suffering), so in sure they’re more eager to let us self destruct or continue with stagnant decline.
The response works in both directions and the Russians know that. The Russian are not the threat we should worry about, it is China. Russia is just the distraction.
CZ it was interesting that you posted this. Another blogger from the Bitterroot Valley posted about preparedness. Check it out https://mtdawn.com/2023/04/07/be-prepared-for/
With the crazies running Russia and China who knows. The biggest detergent then was MAD. Mutually Assured Destruction. But that was then. This is now. Putin and Xi have joined forces with the Norks, Irainians, Brazilians, and any other rag tag bunch of terrorists.
We’ve already had a taste of bio warfare courtesy of Xi. Putin is determined to finish Ukraine. And the dumb weak bastard in the White House is an incompetent loser. He telegraphed his weakness in the rout from Afghanistan. Xi owns old Joey. Putin isn’t afraid of him either. Our standibg in the world is suffering severely.
The one thing Reagan was correct about. Peace through Strength. Biden has our military completely unprepared to fight even one enemy. Let alone two. It is under strength. The recruiters can’t intice anybody to sign on the dotted line. All this comes back to the left. They hate the military. They always try to blame them when their precious diplomacy fails. Which with these morons is a constant.
Anything that can be done should be done to prepare. A good radio such as a small radio with Miliband capability. Those get many stations from across the planet. And many countries offer English language broadcasts.
The Ruskies seem to be getting close to unhinged enough to set off a nuke. Throw in the uncertainties of China and N. Korea and the wicket starts to get quite sticky.
The image of a good man who was kind to his parents, children, spouse and small animals sticks in my mind. He worked hard at his job at the ball bearing factory and rose up ranks to reach a salary that provided for his family in an above average manner. He took the kids to the zoo, helped them with their homework, washed the dishes for his wife once in a while and made sure her car had fresh oil and proper tire pressure.
None of that mattered at all when the bomb went off over their heads in Nagasaki. We can only do what we can do and try to cover as many bases as we can with our preps.
I’m going to see how long I can last before heading on to the final adventure. Like the black knight in Monty Python with no arms and legs on the ground trying to bite his enemy.
The Ace in the hole might well be the Norks. The Haircut has been launching missiles with regularity. First this bullshi about going totally electric will not work.
Most people have no idea how weak the electric grid is. There are people who have been warning about hardening the grid. From the equipment to the technology that actually is supposed to protect the system. Thry have been ignored. First the grid cannot handle the increased load thry intend to put on it. Blown transformers and the power stations like the one behind me have nasty habits of crapping out. Oh. BTW. Those things that are referred to pots at the substation. Their made in…….wait for it……CHINA. The Haircut if my guess is correct is testing his hardware to essentially detonate a nuclear warhead over the United States at altitude. The resulting EMP burst will fry every electrical component in the country. Those not fried won’t work because the generation plants will be off line for years.
And remember. Old Decrepit Joey allowed his Chinese masters to fly a balloon over the US. The track took it over our hardened silos where our MIRV equipped missiles are. Then over Whiteman AFB that is home to our B2 Spirit Stealth bombers. Then on to Tennessee and Kentucky where the 160th SOAR is located along with the 101st Airborne Div. Then across to the Carolinas. Fort Brag, where Delta Force lives. And of course our Marine training facilities in South Carolina. The amount of Intel that balloon gathered must have been enormous. And Old Dummy just let it fly. They are getting ready for something. Heard this afternoon that China sent 71 aircraft to Taiwan to practice enforcement. A month ago the National idiot promised F16 Fighting Falcons to Taiwan. They haven’t been sent yet.
Another piece of information floated my way. The Chinese are building a new aircraft carrier. And remarkably it looks just like our new Ford Class carrier the USS Gerald R Ford. Isn’t that something. Probably another gift from Joey.
Seems odd that it’s always the Russians getting “unhinged” and crazy enough to use a nuke.
Seems the only country to USE a Nuke (actually 2) on a near fully destroyed enemy was the USA.
Are our White House-DOJ-DOD folks SANE by any Non-Woke definition of the term?
Is Putin writing Red Flag Laws or prompting Tranny Shooters in our schools? If you’re not condemning and punishing Trannys that call for VIOLENCE against Conservatives and Christians, then are you supporting their “Fight against Tranny Genocide” (excuse me while I puke).
My sad bet is any nuke on America will be a domestic False Flag one to enrage normal Americans against something else besides their Insane Government.
No. It’s internal. Doctrination in the schools and preschools. Remember. These are the children and grandchildren of the sixties radicals. SDS was a KGB front group. Funded by KGB and GRU. These cells were in almost every major college in the country. Many thought SDS went away. It didn’t. It’s still active.
The Marxist ideology tells its adherent’s to attack the societal institutions. Primarily the family. The church and the education system. Control the latter and you can indoctrinate unimpeded. Only during the COVID19 lock downs did parents have access to the lesson plans being fought. They were horrified. Hence we have the movement to fight this. Oh Dummy is trying to remove the parents from the equation. It won’t work. His executive orders are a violation of the 10th amendment.
As John F Kennedy once said. The price of Freedom us eternal vigilance.
Never discount the evil and dedication if these leftist. And keep an eye on the cities. San Fran, Chicongo, St Louis, Atlanta. And others. San Fran saw an egress of 230,000 residents since the beginning of this year. The woke refund the police types don’t understand even the minorities want peaceful cities. Yet they bear the brunt of the entrenched lawlessness in the large cities which are all run by Marxist. Chicago. It will go from bad to worse.
Eventually, if this trend follows the norm it will begin to turn on itself. Which we are seeing in small increments. Hopefully it will continue and grow. What should we do. Stay out of the way. Let them eat each other. People can only take so much. Eventually even the most hardened leftist begins to understand their ideology is greatly flawed. Doesn’t work in any positive way. And is not benificial to any group or society. The point where the pendulum starts to swing the other way hasn’t been reached yet. But it will. It happened in Detroit. After nearly a half century of crime and political exploitation the citizens had enough of corrupt Mayors elected only because of their skin color. They elected Mayor Mike Duggan. A business man with a hefty investment in the city. The downtown is cleaner. Crime is lower. All in all a better place that is attracting business and people coming to the attractions at the major entertainment venues. But it will be a long road back. It took 70 years to destroy the city. Not sure when the recovery will be complete. But they have begun.
America is that bad neighbor that nobody likes. “My sad bet is any nuke on America will be a domestic False Flag one to enrage normal Americans against something else besides their Insane Government.” 100% agree.
MP and Jimbo. Is it the Russians who are nuts or is it our guys? We just watched the commie DA of Travis County convict a man for defending himself. He hid evidence from the defense and jury. Fed law broken (Brady material)? Nah, he’s one of ours! We see the fearless leaders or great leaders go to Nashville because 3 commies got removed from their cushy state rep jobs for breaking the rules. Nothing said about 3 little girls. Our guys are the ones pushing NATO eastward after promising not to. Our guys are in the Davos crowd. Are the Russian and Chinese leaders good people??? Hell, no, but they aren’t nutty like our guys. It’s not the Reds destroying our economy, it’s our guys. I don’t believe they will nuke us first, only if they are nuked first. They don’t have to. We are doing a good job of nuking our country ourselves. Note a story today. Hollyweird’s new movie out glorifies the left radical “students” destroying the Texas pipeline. I hope CZ’s family is out of New York if someone did that. Mighty cold up there without natural gas in winter.
There seems to be a lot of mis-information about potassium iodide. The article states that it “Doctors can often treat radiation damage with substances such as potassium iodide”. Potassium iodide is not a treatment for radiation sickness, it is a prophylactic, that is a preventative, for absorbing radioactive iodine isotopes that could lead to thyroid cancer later on. If you are 50 and over the “experts” say that you do not need to take potassium iodide. The thought is that you may be dead of old age before thyroid cancer. But I am not sure what age the “experts” used for the average life expectancy.
The people that puts these types of articles together don’t consider other variables that may impact one’s survival etc. for example I would NOT put too much faith in receiving any type of warning. Past occurrences of perceived threats had those in charge question the validity of what they were seeing on radars, etc. (thank God). We can surmise that in a real event those same people in charge will also assume that what they are seeing on radars, etc. are not correct (normalcy bias). They will try to confirm what the radars are indicating or otherwise try to ensure that we are under attack. This is good BUT with only 10-30 minutes of time before detonation, it will eat a lot of that time up. Then when or if the warning does go out to the states the states will try to confirm the warning validity before sending out EAS and WEA messages. I believe that the Feds can activate both the EAS and WEA systems but I think the WEA system has only been tested nationally once and I know I did Not get the test massage. Not an expert on the EAS de decoders at the TV and Radio stations or at government levels but I do know that certain levels of government can stop the message from proceeding automatically. This is to stop false alarms. We also assume that all the TV and Radio systems have operating EAS systems.
The article talks about finding a safe spot in the 30 minutes before the fallout arrives but doesn’t take into account things like traffic, damaged buildings, etc. the best course of action would be to find immediate shelter near by. With that said I’ll be heading home, sometimes the “best” course of action isn’t the right answer.
The other short coming of the article assumes that any nuclear attack will come out of the blue. We can probably assume that there will be other “hostile” attacks before someone butt hurt world leader pushes the BIG RED BUTTON. In this day and age we can also assume that a massive cyber attack would precede a nuclear attack. Long held Soviet/Russian is to use an EMP attack as an opening salvo to a nuke attack so as to try and “blind” our military/government from having command, control and communications capabilities. The Chinese. On the other hand actually have EMP attacks as part of the Cyber Warfare doctrine.
Something I wrote about KI:
Radiation Protection
Sources of Radiation exposure
There are perhaps three types of radiation exposure that we are concerned with…that from a nuclear detonation (bomb), a reactor accident (Fukushima, Three Mile Island, Chernobyl), or a ‘radiological dispersal device’, RDD, or ‘Dirty Bomb’. Each is different in its materials, and effects.
The decay from a nuclear power plant reactor breach is quite different from the decay from a nuclear detonation, because the materials used are quite different. Quite a bit of trouble is taken in building nuclear weapons to make certain only the ‘right’ materials are in them, for efficiency and physics reasons. Because of the nature of a reactor, there are lots different types of radioactive materials being transmuted (converted from one element to another, with the release of energy). Some of those new materials are themselves used in the nuclear processes while some are not. The effects of a so-called ‘dirty bomb’ are different still, mainly because most dirty bombs would be made with only a single, non-chain reacting radioactive material.
Secondly, fallout is radioactive material, stuck to (mostly) dirt, following a nuclear detonation. After a reactor accident, you may well have radioactive contamination, which is different – it is melted radioactive material being blown around by the wind.
A small difference? Not really. In a nuclear detonation, there is a massive heat bloom caused by the detonation (itself reaching temperatures approaching 10-million degrees C), that heats the air up tremendously. Hot air rises, and the resulting fireball, vertical column and mushroom cloud sucks fallout up into the upper atmosphere (the stratosphere) where it gets blown around by the jet stream and other global weather patterns. In a reactor accident virtually none of the nuclear fuel, and only very small quantities of radioactive byproducts gets blown around Following the reactor accidents in Japan, the radiation that was detected on the west coast of N. America was in such small amounts as to be truly negligible – we have the technology to detect far smaller quantities of radiation than can likely harm us.
Consider if material from Japan had entered the stratosphere (and the jet stream), it would have reached the west coast of N. America in about a day. Since we know it didn’t (it took around 8 days (at an average wind speed of around 21 knots (25 mph) and a distance of 4300 nautical miles (almost 5000 statute miles) to be detectable in the west coast) we know it wasn’t up there in the fast lane. The vast majority of the radiation and contamination from Japan is going into the ocean, bad for the Japanese (how do you think we got Godzilla?); but not so bad for the rest of us…once the stuff settles to the bottom, very diluted, it will be covered with sludge and not be much of a practical factor…all the while decaying.
In the Chernobyl disaster, the reactor used giant blocks of graphite as the control for the nuclear process (a very different type of reactor, with different internal components, and no containment building around it at all). When it got out of control, that graphite started burning, becoming basically a giant barbecue (graphite is one crystalline form of carbon, coal is a non-crystalline form of carbon, diamond is another crystalline form of carbon, get them hot enough and they all burn). The radioactive fuel and byproducts mixed with burning graphite was the contamination that blew around Europe.
Even with that, the only deaths that can be positively attributed to the disaster are those of the workers who were sent in to try to control it (they were screwed). We can estimate that perhaps 300 more total deaths over the lifetime of everyone who was alive at that time will occur because of the radiation exposure, but we can’t say who or when. We do know that at least 300 people who were nearby have committed suicide because of their fears (not for any actual physical reason relating to the disaster).
However, the vast majority of both contamination and fallout tends to settle near the source, downwind, because they do not go up high, and radioactive fuel materials tend to be quite heavy. Therefore, they do not go far.
Radioactive Decay and the 7/10 rule
For nuclear detonations, for every 7-hour period after the peak in radiation, the intensity of radiation fallout will decrease by 10%. So, say a detonation peaks at noon, and your handy survey meter says that it’s 1000 R/Hr outside (very bad news, which is why it better be outside). At 1 PM, the l000 R/Hr level will have decreased by 10%, to 900 R/Hr. Still, pretty damned bad. Another hour, 2 PM, and the level has gone down 10% more (to 810 R/Hr), and so on. There are several spreadsheets around that people have made to do the math, you can search the net for them. I like the ones made by “Jerry D. Young”, and “TOM” (Tired Old Man), two prolific writers of PAW fiction.
To make life simple, you can assume that the radiation after a nuclear detonation has gone down to 10% of what it was originally after 7*7 hours (49 hours, or 2 days and change). That would mean in our example, 100 R/Hr, still pretty bad, 50% of the people who were out in it for an hour would have symptoms of radiation exposure (not really bad symptoms, but still….) and a lifetime increased risk of cancer. 2 hours and 50% would be sick, 6 hours and most of them would be dead in a month.
After 7*7*7 hours, 343 hours or 14 days and change, it will have gone down to 1% of what it was (1 R/Hr). At this point, you can decide if there is something (taking care of animals, getting food, water or other supplies, throwing out the trash, burying the dead) is worth the risk. An hour or two probably won’t hurt much, but you still can’t spend all day in it (24 R/day over 8 days is 200 R).
After 7*7*7*7 hours, 2401 hours or a around 100 days, (a bit more than 14 weeks or 3 months) the level outside will be down to 0.1% of what it was (0.1 R/Hr). This is probably an OK level to go outside, work, salvage, grow food, etc, but I’d still sleep in a shelter at night, for another 6 months to a year or so. BTW, children (especially infants) should NOT be casually exposed to radiation, or even contaminated soil after a detonation…their entire body is closer to the source, the ground, so they get a higher whole-body dose.
If you are close enough for the shock wave of a nuclear detonation to hit you (call it within 5 miles, there are few very large warheads today because it doesn’t make any sense to build them), you will probably have other issues to deal with – like surviving the blast waves (there are at least two, one rushing away from the detonation and another blowing back to fill the hole, and it’s the second one that does the most damage).
But, you can expect fallout to start almost any time, and being close it will be quite heavy. You can calculate the time it will take by estimating the wind speed, if the wind is blowing 10 mph and you’re 5 miles downwind, it will take 1/2 hour to get to you. Pretty simple. You can also figure out where a detonation was by how long it takes for the fallout to reach you, based on wind speed and direction…if the wind is 10 mph from the west, and it takes 24 hours from the time you know a detonation occurred until it gets to you, it was 240 miles to your west.
The best thing to do if you feel the shock wave or see the detonation is to move crosswind as quickly as possible for however much time you think you will have, until you reach a good shelter. A keychain radiation detector (NukAlert or similar) may be useful in this regard, merely detecting radiation does not mean you will be affected adversely by it.
For a reactor accident, the individual components of the reactor core (which is changing all the time) have to be calculated…but you have to know what they are to begin, so there is no calculation you can do ad hoc.
A good shelter might be a deep basement with good cover, or even the upper stories of a tall building (not the upper 3 or lower 5 floors, you want at least some distance between horizontal surfaces where fallout might accumulate and you).
The book Nuclear War Survival Skills was written in the 1980’s and has many plans for good, self-made fallout shelters, even ones made on the fly. It is available here for free: http://www.oism.org/nwss/index.htm
Note: The first aid info given there is pretty badly out of date. The rest of the information is mostly OK.
There are old US Government Civil Defense booklets on line about how to build a shelter into your existing home, or find the amount of mass you need to halve the radiation exposure for different kinds of construction materials. For example a shelter with 3′ of packed earth roof provides a factor of 10 halving thicknesses or 1/2^10 (1024), that is 1/1024th as much radiation as outside. In my home, we got a little carried away. We have 3′ of packed earth, and wound up with 24″ of reinforced concrete as well; another 2^10, for a total of 2^20 or a factor of a million and change. We get more radiation from the concrete (it’s naturally radioactive) than we would from a 1000 R/Hr point source outside…and it didn’t cost that much more than building the basement did without it.
One thing the Government has recently said is that in the event of a ‘dirty bomb’, the best thing to do would be to stay indoors (shelter in place) for a few days. You wait until the outsides are decontaminated (mostly flushed off); so having a weeks’ worth of food, water, and sanitation capability in a simple shelter would be a good thing.
http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2011/01/the-unexpected-return-of-duck-and-cover/68776/
HTH. I guess this is another draft to finalize.
Good luck!
And something I wrote about how radiation damages cells:
How Radiation Damages Cells
The way that radiation damages cells (and we are all made of cells) is by the radiation (particle, or wave) hitting something important inside the cell (cells are mostly water inside, just like the rest of us). If the something important is damaged (think of a pool table, with the cue ball breaking the nice ordered rack of balls), the cell goes into ‘apoptosis’, or programmed cell death, and various parts of the body and the cell start recycling most everything. If a lot of this happens at once, that is bad – it leads to nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, in near-term radiation exposure cases. If the radiation hits a chromosome in the nucleus of the cell, it blasts apart the DNA (think of a BB hitting a glass rod)…maybe the repair mechanisms in the cell can fix it, maybe not. Again, apoptosis results. If this happens in (say) bone marrow, then your blood products aren’t re-manufactured (they get used up and wear out), it’s like the factory burnt down, and you don’t get any more until it’s rebuilt. Maybe you will survive that long, maybe not. The worst effect is on the cells that reproduce the fastest, skin, the lining of the gut, hair, bone marrow (where blood products are manufactured), and that’s why these are affected first.
The worst case is the radiation hits the chromosome, and changes the DNA…DNA has repair mechanisms, error-checking mechanisms, and it also has a ‘kill switch’ to keep an individual cell from reproducing more than 55 or 60 times. If the error-correcting mechanism breaks then the cell starts reproducing badly – or doesn’t do what it’s supposed to. If the kill switch breaks, it starts reproducing willy-nilly.
We call that cancer. Bad news.
Fortunately, it doesn’t happen all that often, but still – better to use mass, distance and time to avoid it. Fortunately, 4500 miles or more (from Japan) is enough distance.
There is an experimental drug, Ex-Rad that offers real protection against cellular damage caused by radiation. http://www.onconova.com/exrad.shtml However, it is experimental, and likely will only ever be approved for use in cancer patients undergoing radiation therapy. I can’t see approval ever being given for even testing in radiation exposure patients, because who would be the test subjects? We can’t expose people to potentially fatal levels of radiation.
Whoops: Sorry, this is the KI article
Use of Iodine blockers in nuclear fallout environments
© 2005-2011-2023 Flight-ER-Doc
What is KI and why do we need it? KI is the chemical symbol for Potassium Iodide. Another product with a purportedly similar effect is Potassium Iodate (KIO3), more on this below.
One of the products of fallout (actually, product of decay of higher atomic weight radioactive materials) is a radioactive form of Iodine, Iodine-131. The thyroid gland takes iodine from your diet, and uses it to make a hormone that is essential as a raw material for a LOT of things in the way cells process raw materials to make other materials. You can’t live without the various thyroid hormones that are produced, you can however live without a thyroid, as long as you take a thyroid supplement. BTW, it’s almost impossible to overdose on iodine (with a normal diet), since it’s water soluble – you just eliminate excesses of it.
Now, if you’re exposed to I-131, your thyroid gland will happily use it, just like any other source of iodine. Since it’s radioactive, though, the iodine will irradiate your thyroid gland (with beta particles, if anyone is interested) and do bad things to it. Beta particles are not particularly strong, on the skin they cause slight burns that look and feel like sunburn. However, in the thyroid, the beta particles can get into the thyroid cells and kill them, or cause the DNA in the nucleus to not duplicate correctly during mitosis (a mutation), or worse, cause them to start growing wildly. These last two conditions are what we call ‘cancer’.
While your thyroid gland will be very happy using radioactive Iodine, it will also be very happy using non-radioactive iodine. And, it really doesn’t use a LOT of iodine in either case. So, if you can ‘flood’ your thyroid and system with non-radioactive iodine prior to exposure to the bad stuff, the radioactive excess will just be eliminated from your body.
Since you need your thyroid (or the products from the thyroid) to live, having it stop working is bad. Fortunately (I guess) it takes usually 10 years or more for such a cancer to develop, following a major nuclear release (Hiroshima/Nagasaki, Chernobyl).
Half-Lives
Radioactive materials have ‘half lives’. This is the time it takes for 1/2 of the radioactive atoms in a substance to release their energy and become something else. People worry about elements that have a very long half-life (plutonium, for instance, has an isotope with a half-life of 25,000 years) but the immediate threat are isotopes that have a very short half life. An analogy may be helpful:
Keep in mind that when something is radioactive, it’s emitting energy (like heat, or light). That energy has to go somewhere and do something, the central dogma of physics is that energy cannot be created or destroyed, only changed in form. So, that energy is what causes the damage to your thyroid.
A mass of radioactive material is like a pan of popcorn kernels, waiting to pop. The popping is the release of the energy, and the conversion from one element to another (I-131 turns into xenon, which is stable. Uranium-238, for example, ultimately (after more than 4.5 billion years) turns into lead). Now, picture your standing over the stove, with your Jiffy-Pop™ – what has more energy, a pan where half the kernels pop (release energy) in 10 milliseconds (some weird isotopes are even shorter lived that that), or one that takes 25,000 years to pop HALF the kernels? And another 25,000 years to pop half of the remaining unpopped kernels (so, you now have 75% of the kernels popped), and another 25,000 years for half of the remaining 25% (87.5% total popped)? Of course, the ones that release their energy quickly are the more ‘energetic’ ones.
I-131 has a half life of about 8 days. Normally, we like to say that 10 half-lives are necessary to reduce the amount of radiation to a negligible level, or 80 days. This would reduce the radiation by a factor of 2 to the 10th power, or 1/1024 of the original amount, a very significant amount.
Potassium Iodate
As mentioned, products containing potassium iodate (KIO3) are on the market. Some say they are better. They certainly taste better, but there is a reason they aren’t approved for use.
Iodine, like most chemicals, has an electrical charge on it. Different forms of iodine have different charges – these charges kind of need to match up to the chemicals they attach to, inside or outside the body.
Iodide has a charge of -1. It will disassociate from the potassium (a charge of +1) fairly easily, and be available to attach to anything in the body with a charge of +1.
Iodate, on the other hand, has a charge of +7. It has to disassociate from the potassium and oxygen, break the double electron bonds on two of the three oxygen molecules, change it’s charge by picking up two -1 electrons and then becomes available to do it’s good work in the body. Until it does that, it’s a ‘free radical’ that the body doesn’t have a method of dealing with.
For this reason, KIO3 isn’t approved, and is not recommended. I include dosing below for those who want to tempt fate. Good luck!
Now, why do people get so worked up about radioactive iodine in the thyroid? Well, it’s a significant threat (at least 10 years or so post exposure), and it’s very easily preventable (just stock and take some sort of thyroid iodine blocker).
So, which form is better? Any of them will probably do about as good a job, but only one form has been approved by the FDA – the one that tastes so bad you might vomit after tasting it.
If you are exposed to fallout, taking an Iodine preparation is probably a good idea. You should take it for 90 days after the radioactive iodine is released, to ensure that 10 half-lives have deteriorated. Follow the dosing schedule on the package, which should be something along the lines of:
Over 12 years old 130mg KI, 170mg KIO3
3 – 12 years old 65mg KI 85mg KIO3
1 – 36 months old 32mg KI, 42mg KIO3
< 1 month old 16mg KI, 21mg KIO3
World Health Organization, Guidelines for Iodine Prophylaxis following Nuclear Accidents, Update 1999
Since the KI or KIO3 is water soluble, there is NO benefit in taking an extra dose
Limitations
Since the KI or KIO3 ONLY protects the thyroid gland, it does NOT protect any body parts against any other types of radiation exposure. It is not an ‘invincibility pill”.
What about other radiation exposure? What happens if you’re not in a shelter during the worst part of the fallout. Fallout decays in strength about 10% for every 7 hours post peak. So, if you're in a shelter with a monitor and notice a peak in the reading outside, 7 hours later the reading will be 10% less, 14 hours later it will be 10% of 90% less, etc. So, the conventional wisdom is that if you shelter for about 14 days (7x7x7 hours) you will get only 1/1,000 (10x10x10) the exposure had you been there at the peak.
If the exposure was high (say, 1,000 Roentgen (R)/Hr peak), after 2 weeks you would only be getting 1 rad/hour. At this level you can go outside for an hour or two and take care of animals, get more food or water, etc. You may need to stay in the shelter longer, and probably should sleep in the shelter for awhile longer, but the longer since the peak in radiation, the more 7 hour periods that the radiation is decaying, too. If you were to stay in shelter for say 100 days (7x7x7x7x7 hours) the radiation outside (1,000 R total) would be 1/10,000 (10x10x10x10) or 0.1 R/hour.
Now, peacetime limits are quite strict, but a dose of as much as 50R total (RAD, or Roentgen absorbed dose), 10 times the peacetime annual standard for nuclear workers probably isn't going to cause much trouble for anyone. That would be exposure to 1 R for 50 hours, or exposure to 5 R for 10 hours, etc. At 100 RAD there is less than a 50% chance of slight clinical symptoms of radiation exposure, and it takes as much as 200 RAD to cause significant health issues, especially for older people (who, frankly, have less time left to develop a long-term cancer).
Nobody (especially me) wants to see a nuclear war or release of nuclear materials. However, if people actually learn the truth about nuclear weapons affects (such as the info above) the ability of such weapons to terrorize would be far less. Unfortunately (political speech coming), there are many who will use ignorance to further their own agendas and make claims that cause people to be misled – such as the specious claim that you cant protect yourself from radiation, or that fallout will kill everyone on earth.
Hope this helps.
The difference between the nuclear preparedness of the Russian population and the American population is striking. That explains why the Russian nuclear war strategy holds that such a war is winnable. The reality is that, if one occurs, the Russians might not “win,” since no one will, but Russian will certainly come out better than the US.
Americans would have “the vapors” if Washington began funding a serious Civil Defense program. “They’re gonna get us all KILLED!” Anti-war protests would break out across the country.
Americans prefer to live in denial and blissful ignorance. This attitude only reinforces memes: “No one is coming to save you!”
You are clearly on your own, so get crackin’.
It doesn’t even have to be a near-peer actor. North Korea could certainly launch a IRBM with a nuke warhead from a freighter off any US coastline…It is within the capabilities of terrorist actors as well, should they want to invest the money.
The American Govt IS NOT Going to say a word.
To control Panic.
Callin it now.
You get Nothing dirt flesh!
The fact that the mainstream media is now apparently saying we need to learn how to duck and cover in case of nuclear war is slightly concerning.
ok, everyone is nuts, now what?
Jimbo the rule of threes is a very good start.
Also Grahams Killhouse Rules are in effect.
1. NOBODY IS COMING TO SAVE YOU. Whether an event lasts a few seconds, a few hours, or even a few days – you have to work as though nobody is coming to save you.
2. You are your savior, so start working because EVERYTHING IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY. You are your security, you are your medic, you are your rescuer.
3. You are your own best resource to SAVE WHO NEEDS TO BE SAVED. Nobody wants to save your life more than you, so set yourself up for success by having the simple tools and knowledge to do so: do what you can with what you have. Recognize that nobody is in a better position to start saving your life than you.
4. Sometimes saving lives means you have to KILL WHO NEEDS TO BE KILLED. It has been almost 15 years since I first wrote “the more effective you are at taking a life, the more successful you’ll be at saving one” and nothing in the intervening time has changed my mind. Be swift, be decisive, be final.
5. Mostly, ALWAYS BE WORKING. There is always something you can be doing to improve your position. Always. Because nobody is coming to save you.
Tempus Fugit
My message is create allies not enemies. All over history someone was trying to kill off and take the money/land/commerce of someone else. The strong survived. The bigger our numbers the stronger we are.
Falling for the divide and conquer is the most basic screw up of all. Red vs. Blue, Black vs. White, Biden vs. Trump, etc. etc. We can work to correct those issues but it’s where the sausage is made.
I’ve been in hearings every day for the last ten days from 9am to 5pm trying to stop JUST ONE COMPANY from stealing our money. Tens of thousands of pages of testimony to work through, hours and hours of witnesses babbling nonsense, waiting for the Erin Brockovich moment when I can maybe successful. But if just three commissioners vote yes then they win. I have to try and get them to vote no.
How about finding ways to come together to win and quit talking about killing each other.
My message is the Titanic is sinking, the lifeboats are already stolen by the “Elite”.
Get busy building your OWN lifeboat.
And prepare to deal with those who WILL try to clamber aboard your limited assets lifeboat.
Stealing our money? LOL like the Government isn’t doing a Weimar Germany 2.0 on us RIGHT NOW?
If you turned off your home’s main breaker for a 3 day exercise, how would it affect your priorities?
Got plenty of safe water for your family?
Protect your family. Killhouse rule #3.
Nice post Michael.
Yeah, there is always something more we can be doing. My youngest son would jokingly say “get home, load AK magazines” in response to a serious emergency. Truth is he knows enough to be very helpful, fill water containers, get out the emergency lighting, etc. in minor crisis situiations. Some basic awareness goes a long way.
That stated, I fear societies never see the end WHEN THEY ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF IT. Human nature I suppose.
They’re pointing out the enemy to keep you deaf and blind
They wanna sap your energy, incarcerate your mind – Dire Straights
I think Michael is correct,
No one is coming.
Not to help you, not to get you.
You are on your own, regardless of who you are or where you are.
No one is coming, they don’t give a crap about you.
Found another recent revelation. The Norks have now doubled their nuclear complement of nuclear weapons. The number they can deploy is put at 17. .
The ICBM that the Norks have at their disposal is a missile that falls somewhere between a medium range and a long range launch system. It can reach the center of the US. Be capable of hitting say Chicago to New Orleans.
But a new missile was used earlier this year to orbit a satellite. It is obvious the Chinese are assisting the Norks in boosting the capability of their weapon delivery systems.
Still 17 warheads all being thermonuclear weapons meaning hydrogen bombs which means the warhead yield is measured in mega tons rather then kilo tons can do a lot of damage. 17 large population centers will result in about 35% of the population being killed in the first strike. With another 15 to 20 percent dying for radiation exposure. Definitely something to think about.
UPDATE! According to another source published this morning the Norks have 45 thermonuclear devices that can be deployed.
The only issue I see here. They have limited launch sites. And those are stationary. I’ve never seen any information about the Norks having hardened silos or mobile launchers.
So my previous post is negated by this new information. Except to say that the damage and casualty estimates would be doubled. The only thing I see as a vulnerability is the launchers. Depending on how long it takes the Old Turd to issue orders to strike. The current launcher types are the biggest vulnerability I see for the Norks. But it’s a sure bet if they have EMP capability those will be in the first strike.