Article – The Silver Rush at MF Global

Originally published at Notes from the bunker…. You can comment here or there.

Most of us don’t buy gold and silver as an investment (in the traditional sense) but rather as a hedge against inflation or currency devaluation. However, the lesson learned from these folks who invested is the same – if you buy precious metals but don’t actually have physical possession of them, well, you bought something but I don’t know what.

Investors are furious that they can’t get back the gold and silver they stashed with the failed brokerage.

It’s one thing for $1.2 billion to vanish into thin air through a series of complex trades, the well-publicized phenomenon at bankrupt MF Global. It’s something else for a bar of silver stashed in a vault to instantly shrink in size by more than 25%.

That, in essence, is what’s happening to investors whose bars of silver and gold were held through accounts with MF Global.

The trustee overseeing the liquidation of the failed brokerage has proposed dumping all remaining customer assets—gold, silver, cash, options, futures and commodities—into a single pool that would pay customers only 72% of the value of their holdings. In other words, while traders already may have paid the full price for delivery of specific bars of gold or silver—and hold “warehouse receipts” to prove it—they’ll have to forfeit 28% of the value.

Durability vs. survivability

Originally published at Notes from the bunker…. You can comment here or there.

Whenever I buy, well, pretty much anything, one of the qualities I look for is durability. If I have to pay $25 for something that is available in a lesser quality at half the price, I expect that difference in price to reflect a pretty hefty increase in useful life of that product. Or, to rephrase it, if I’m going to pay $200 for a flashlight it better last me a good twenty years.

This quality is referred to as ‘durability’….how durable something is. What is durability? It’s how long something will last in it’s expected work capacity. I expect a flashlight to work for ‘x’ amount of time as long as it is used as a flashlight. Used as a hammer, it’s durable work life may be somewhat shortened.

I also like gear that can take the occasional flying drop kick to the jaw and come out smiling. Previously, I associated this quality with durability but as I read more I discover that the term for this is, actually, survivability. What is the difference between the two? And are they exclusive to each other? Can gear have high durability and low survivability? Vice versa?

Survivability is the ability of a system (the term was originally used to describe systems, not items) to survive damage, attacks or failures and still retain a required degree of performance ability. In other words, it has to take a licking and keep on ticking. The best example of survivability is sitting in front of you right this second – the internet. As you know, back when they started flinging electrons around on this thing, the internet (which went under the name of ARPANET, among others) was designed to provide a communications network that would still function even if chunks of it became radioactive debris. It was designed for survivability.

Much of your critical military weapon systems are designed around survivability. Look at some of the armored vehicles and aircraft that come limping home to their bases overseas…helicopters with no oil left in them, humvees running with holes in the block, etc, etc. These are systems that are built with the notion that ‘worst case scenarios’ can’t be allowed to stop you, only slow you down.

So survivability, as it pertains to things like gear and equipment, is the ability of that item to take an amount of abuse, damage, neglect, or wear that is ‘out of the box’ from what the gear was designed to do and still function acceptably. Is survivability directly related to durability? I don’t think so. Durability is about the anticipated wear and tear of a product used the way it was intended. Survivability is about that some product going ‘above and beyond’ and coming out okay. Let’s use tires as an example. You get, what?, 30k miles? 40k? But if you swerve off the pavement and start driving down a dirt road covered in gravel, debris and who knows what else you get significantly shorter life.  And, as Leo Getz reminds us in Lethal Weapon 3, “Bullets aren’t covered under normal road hazards”.  A bullet-resistant tire has great survivability, but you’re probably not going to get the 40k miles out of it. Survivability good, durability …not so much.

So, yes, there’s a difference between survivability and durability. A Venn diagram with one circle showing durability and the other showing survivability would show us that we want that yummy subset where the two overlap…survivability and durability…two great tastes that taste great together. Are such things achievable? Sure…just not always in the things we want at prices we can afford. Simple systems, things like packs and clothing, can be modified to increase survivability and durability (although these are excellent examples of products that embody both) whereas more complex systems…things like electronics, vehicles, etc,…are pretty difficult to make major gains to without being darn near a certified technician in that field.

My point is, when I shop for gear I was confusing survivability with durability and conflating the two…a way of thinking that diminishes the value of each of those qualities. Now that I’m aware of it I need to look at the acquisition of gear and other items from the two standpoints, rather than the previously-conflated one. It’s the difference between buying a radio and asking “How well will this stand up over time” versus “How well will this stand up to being bounced around in a vehicle, hauled over distances, fed fluctuating voltages, knocked off of its stand, and exposed to the elements”.

Interesting way to re-think the value of things.

Stripper clip guide

Originally published at Notes from the bunker…. You can comment here or there.

I received a package from someone the other week. He had emailed me that he had some goodies for me to try out and that I should be on the lookout for them. The box arrived at the post office and inside were several of these:

Thermold stripper clip guide for HK91 magazines.

My initial thought was “Man, I bet these are only gonna work with the Thermold magazines.” And, truly, that would be the suckage. Surprisingly, the stripper clip guide ( or charger, if you prefer) slips right on top of the surplus aluminum and steel G3 magazines that I have laying around. Okay, so far so good…but as far as I know there are no HK stripper clips, so what kinda stripper clips to use? Good question. A quick look around the junk bin in my reloading area turned up a coffee can full of stripper clips for .308/.30-06. I couldn’t tell you what country, I couldnt tell you what caliber, I couldnt tell you what era….but they worked.  (Most likely they were a mix of Mauser and 1903 clips.) The Thermold guide doesnt use the ‘bumps’ on the side of the stripper clip as a stop like most other stripper clip guides do. Rather, the clip simply binds up at the bottom of the clip guide and although the clip stops, the cartridges keep going….right into your magazine. So, it appears that pretty much any .308/.30-06 stripper clip might work.

Some advice: when you use stripper clips, you want your thumb (which is pushing down on the stack of cartridges) as close to the rear of the cartridge as possible. Otherwise, you wind up levering the cartridge against the clip and causing it to bind. If, like me, you’re pulling a handful of clips out of a coffee can you found sitting under your reloading bench, take the time to inspect and examine each clip. I discovered that some clips were cruddy with dried grease and it made getting the cartridges out of the clips extremely difficult….ruining what would otherwise have been an excellent speed record for loading a twenty-round magazine. Word to the wise: try each clip several times before planning on using them to store your ammo.

If, like me, you’ve been around the world of evil black rifles a few years, you may be thinking to yourself “hey, that looks alot like an FAL stripper clip guide“. Indeed it does. And, having procured a FAL clip guide for comparison, I can tell you the resemblence is strictly skin deep. The HK mags, with their double-layer of metal on the feed portion of the mag, are too wide to fit the FAL guide….close, though.

HK did used to make a magazine loader/unloader but it was a one-at-a-time affair…much like the LULA brand devices. To the best of my limited knowledge, I’ve never seen, nor come across, an HK G3 stripper clip or stripper clip guide. Maybe theyre out there….but if they are then they are so rare that, for my needs, they may as well not exist at all.

The Thermold product works quite well. My only reservation is that it is plastic and therefore may not last as long, or handle the rough and tumble lifestyle, the way a metal product would. (Also, for the money, you’d think you’d get two of them at that price.)  Realistically, my use for this thing is mostly for at the range. Running around with a bandoleer of .308 clips and a charger seems a bit less useful than just simply carrying extra loaded mags…esp. when the aluminum mags are so lightweight and I’ve got over 500 of them.

Conclusion: its a good product, as I’ve experienced it so far. I’d also like to thank the generous person who sent me these to try out – much thanks.

Speaking of a guide to clips about strippers, here’s the most awesome stripper pole move I’ve seen in a while. (Chicks are wearing workout clothes, so if you think there is something NSFW or ‘crude’ in this video you need to get your head out of the Middle Ages.) [ETA: And, to be fair, here’s a guy doing a similar move…uphill]

Article – Electromagnetic pulse a real threat

Originally published at Notes from the bunker…. You can comment here or there.

An opinion piece from the Washington Times about the threat of EMP usage.

Is electromagnetic pulse a real threat to American security? On the heels of recent Republican primary debates, the danger to U.S. electronics and infrastructure posed by a high-altitude nuclear blast suddenly has emerged as a campaign issue. So has concerted opposition to it, with both liberal and conservative skeptics ridiculing the idea as an overblown, even fabricated, distraction. Yet there is ample evidence that the danger is both clear and present.

Certainly, EMP warfare has some very attractive features to the user…it preserves much of the infrastructure in terms of buildings, bridges, roadways, etc…it cripples response systems and unprotected military systems…and it doesnt leave a nasty fallout footprint. On a very, very small scale you can achieve an EMP pulse without resorting to cracking atoms. I read an article about a guy that made an EMP “gun” that he could cripple a computer across the room with. The military, Im sure, has some small EMP generators to fry various electrical systems. The notion of a big airburst over Kansas would shut out the lights from coast to coast? I dunno…that’s mostly theory, I think. No one has actually done it on a scale that big, as far as I know.

Of course, that’s a misleading scenario to begin with….it would be more likely that multiple events would occur rather than one big single one. Regardless, it’s a technology that be attractive to those who can’t afford a surplus SS-24 or build one on their own.

There’s more than a few books out there that turn EMP into the new boogeyman, the most well-known would be “One Second After”, which was pretty entertaining although quite derivative of Lucifer’s Hammer. It does, though, a good job of illustrating what life in a complete infrastructure failure would be like.

Is it enough to make me go trade in my Motorola radios for a couple of heliographs? Nope.

Silver

Originally published at Notes from the bunker…. You can comment here or there.

Hmmm….my friendly ‘precious metals’ dealer just walked into the shop with a Liberty Dollar for me. As we chatted it came to my attention that, as of this moment, silver is below $30 for the first time in quite a while. Not sure why, not sure for how long, not sure if this is the beginning of a long slide, not sure if it’ll be ever north of $30 again….but what I am sure about is that I need to get more of it. I mean, really, given all the crap going on how can it not go up?

ETA: it dropped almost another dollar as I was typing this

Bioweapon

Originally published at Notes from the bunker…. You can comment here or there.

Today was the day I dropped Nuke at the vet for a little surgery…you know the kind.

I handed the leash to the gal and she led him (or, more accurately, he led her) down the hallway to where they keep the animals until they’re ready for the surgery.

It was really weird and disturbing to watch someone else walk away with my dog. I kinda choke up just thinking about it.

Potential terrorist

Originally published at Notes from the bunker…. You can comment here or there.

Someone sent me a link to an article about proposed anti-terror legislation that includes some fairly broad language about who may be a ‘potential terror suspect’. First off, every human being on the planet is a ‘potential’ terror suspect. Potential being a pretty inclusive term, I can also say that everyone reading this is a potential rapist, potential arsonist, potential Nobel Prize winner, potential movie star and even a potential potentate. It’s one thing to go after the sharks but when you throw a big enough net you sometimes get all the wrong fish.

One interesting take on how to gauge new legislation is through the Jews In The Attic test.

I explained to the others in my little band of activists that I looked at all laws that restricted freedom with a view to the impact it would have in a worst case scenario of our government run amok. Will this law make it difficult or impossible to protect innocent life from a government intent on their imprisonment or death? Although I pretty much made everything up on the spot I told them I called this test my “Jews In The Attic Test”. Furthermore I told them that if it fails this test no further discussion is really needed, the law must be opposed in the most vigorous manner possible.

A lovely thought experiment that is interesting to hold already established laws against as well as proposed ones.

What does any of this have to do with preparedness? Well, according to some reports (which I have not established the veracity of), the feds are urging sellers of things likely to be on a survivalists checklist to be suspicious of:

People or groups who:

* Provide identification that is inconsistent or suspect or demand identity “privacy”
* Insist on paying with cash or uses credit card(s) in different names
* Make suspicious comments regarding anti-US, radical theology, vague or cryptic warnings that suggests or appear to endorse the use of violence in support of a cause
* Demonstrate interest in uses that do not seem consistent with the intended use of the item being purchased
* Possess little knowledge of intended purchase items
* Make bulk purchases of items to include:
-Weatherproofed ammunition or match containers
-Meals Ready to Eat
-Night Vision Devices; night flashlights; gas masks
-High capacity magazines
-Bi-pods or tri-pods for rifles

A person spends thousands of dollars on food to feed their family in a crisis but they want to pay for it in cash and refuse to identify themselves? How utterly horrible for the .gov. Speaking as someone who has moved a lot of MRE’s and storage food into the consumer pipeline, I can tell you that if someone walks in and drops $1600 for twenty cases of Mountain House, pays with cash, and doesn’t offer up their name…well…as long as those are real hundred dollar bills I don’t care who you are and why you want it. And, honestly, it’s no one else’s business either. I’m sure some would say that I’m “part of the problem” and that “if those people have nothing to hide” they shouldn’t have any problems with their name being attached to a receipt. Rightly or wrongly, I consider those people to be …. unwise.

Having nothing to hide is not a condition of privacy, in my world. Is it possible that some nutjob will buy a half ton of fertilizer a drum of diesel, whip up a bomb and blow something up? Sure, it’s possible. Should that possibility mean that every person buying fertilizer or gassing up a truck be compelled to show ID and get on a list somewhere? Not to me, it doesn’t.

Is there really a .gov plan to come after people who ‘hoard’ food, fuel, guns, ammo, etc.? I doubt it. It may happen, sure, but is there actually a written plan somewhere that starts off with “Find all the survivalists and take their gear”? Doubtful. This isnt to say that it doesnt happen, but rather that it isn’t part of a greater contingency plan somewhere. I remember reading about people tossing gas cans and generators into the back of their trucks, driving to New Orleans to help out friends or family after Katrina, and getting stopped at checkpoints and having their ’spare’ fuel and generators confiscated by the authorities who justified it on their ‘needs’. Again, not something I’ve researched the veracity of but seems plausible considering some of the other amazingly outrageous things that happened down there.

Fortunately, the overwhelming majority of purchases I’ve made (and make) are cash transactions at places where no one really asks for a name. (Like supermarkets, pawn shops, and those sorts of venues) If I did go into some place to buy, say, a couple 50# bags of wheat and the salesperson asked me for ID I would tell them that I didn’t bring it and if its a dealbreaker, so be it. About the only things that really call for ID are gun purchases and I usually try to buy unpapered guns as much as possible.

So…’potential terrorist’, indeed. I should have that put on a business card. “Hi! My name is….potential terrorist”.

Article – Looking for Inflation? It’s Hiding in Smaller Package Sizes

Originally published at Notes from the bunker…. You can comment here or there.

As I’ve mentioned before, the amazing shrink ray has been getting quite the workout in the supermarkets. This article discusses it but what jumps out about it is that they pointedly mention Breyers, my favorite ice cream, jumping from 2 quarts ( half gallon) to 1.75 qt. to 1.5 qt. And it wouldnt surprise me if they whipped a little more air into it to make it look like a full container. I love Breyers but , man, was I pissed when I saw that.

This is why, when shopping, I always go by the weight (or quantity) divided by price. Coke is $6 for a 20-pack (What happened to the 24-pack? Oh, thats right, take out four cans but keep it looking like a case of 24) but 12-packs are on sale 3-for-$11…what to do, what to do. The answer, obviously, is do the math and see that one comes out to thirty cents a can and the other comes out to .305 per can. These are the details youve gotta keep in mind. Thats what I love about smartphones…I can keep track of pricing at various stores and have a calculator handy to do the math. Are two 12-oz. bottles of Tabasco a better deal than one 20-oz. bottle? That sort of thing. Of course, things like price arent always the only thing to consider….a #10 can of corn is cheaper than a handful of 15 oz cans but I’ll waste more than half the can before I can finish it off…so thats a false economy right there.

The point, though, is that it isnt just me…things really are subtly (and sometimes not so subtly) changing with regard to the economy. I know companies do this to keep sales high and prevent customers from walking away in disgust, thats business….the interesting side effect is that people who are less observant will say “Inflation? What inflation?”..after all, their $5 still gets them a ‘half gallon’ of ice cream just like it did five years ago.

Check the fine print, man…you may learn more about the economy from reading the label on a box of cake mix than you will from reading .gov inflation reports.

Article – NM man talks of ordeal in Arizona mountains

Another tragic story about a couple who Jim Kimmed themselves.

 

GLOBE, Ariz. (AP) – Dana and Elizabeth Davis had spent nearly five grueling days stranded in their car in the rugged Arizona mountains during a snowstorm when they finally realized they needed to venture out for help.

The car had run out of gas, and their rations of sandwiches, cookies, chocolate bars and juice were depleted. Dana, 86, bundled in multiple layers of clothing, put socks on his hands for warmth as he and 82-year-old Elizabeth started walking.

What happened next became a story of incredible tragedy and survival. Elizabeth collapsed just 15 to 20 feet into the walk, her body in a weakened state after five days in the cold. Dana forged ahead, walking eight miles, spending a night under a tree and leaving behind pieces of his wife’s knitting yarn to create a trail to the body.

 

My usual comment about this sort of thing is ’stay with the vehicle’. Easier to do when you’ve actually got a pack of gear in the vehicle for just this sort of an emergency….sleping bag, blankets, candles, food, water, etc. But, beyond that, one of the biggest factors in these cases is that people made a mistake and then compounded it. If youre not driving a four wheel drive vehicle and your not equipped for an impromptu roadside campout then you need to stop and turn the frak around when you realize you’ve a) gone in the wrong direction and b) the pavement has disappeared. Taking unfamiliar ’short cuts’ seems to be a common thread here too. It seems like amny of these situations could have been avoided by just turning around and going back the way you came once you realized you were not where you were supposed to be.

On the other hand, I’ve also come across stories of people who stayed with the vehicle and died anyway, usually from starvation over a course of several weeks. So, even staying with the vehicle, while normally a good choice, can sometimes prove to be equally ineffective. In every case, however, prior planning would have made a difference…more than anything else, knowing when to turn around and say ’screw this, I’m going back’ would have made all the difference. After that, having a bag of gear for just such a situation would probably have turned several of these tragedies into happy endings.

I’ve a surplus military pack that has a goodly selection of items I’d want to have in such a situation…the absolute first thing that went in the bag was a sleeping bag and a wool blanket. After that, a broad selection of the usual things you’d want to have….matches, firestarter, candle lantern, water, flares, flashlight, batts, etc, etc. Stuff like that would have made the difference in some of these cases, myabe not in others….but at least the opportunity is there with the right gear.

Previous posts can be found under the category: strandings