Article – The high price of low interest rates

An article by author Lionel Shriver about how we are now paying for the years of low interest rates and what to expect going forward. Shriver, you may recall, is the author of, among other works, the rather probably-prescient The Mandibles.

Paltry interest rates haven’t only been profoundly unjust – making a mockery of prudence, frugality and the old-fashioned habit of paying for stuff with money you’ve already made, while encouraging recklessness, profligacy and the terribly modern habit of buying stuff with money you may never earn. Nil rates were also systemically irresponsible. Reward debt, get more debt. It shouldn’t surprise central bankers that sovereign debt is through the roof (the US government now owes an unimaginable $31 trillion, the UK government nearly 100 per cent of GDP), that corporations have never been more leveraged, or that household debt is climbing towards its pre-2008 high. Soaring debt is intrinsically unstable – building an economy on borrowed money is like constructing a house atop a big black pit – and fiscal stability is what central banks are meant to ensure, not an ever-rising stock market.

To paraphrase Ayn Rand, you can ignore bad fiscal policy but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring bad fiscal policy.

Video – What Does The FDIC Do When Your Bank Fails

This video was from 2008…the last time bank failures were the Big Thing in the news. I’d imagine that the process has changed a bit since then, but it is still interesting nonetheless.

I have no idea why anyone would keep money in the bank. It earns virtually no interest, so that’s not really a valid reason. I suppose the only real reason is because youre simply afraid to trust your nest egg to a gun safe or a hole in your backyard.

The notion, expressed in the video, that the FDIC won’t cost the taxpayers anything because the FDIC gets its funds from premiums paid by the bank is…well…a platttude to allay the concerns of people who are paying attention. If enough banks fail, or enough banks with large losses, that backstop that the FDIC is holding will evaporate. And, as they said rather clearly in the video, they then ‘borrow’ from Treasury. Which means…..the taxpayer is on the hook.

When I was younger I recall meeting people who had parents who lived through the Depression, or grandparents who did, and some of them never recovered any faith in banks.

My own banking needs are pretty small….I keep money in a checking account to fund my debit card for various purchases, and thats about it. The rest of my money goes into silver, gold, investing, Roth, and cash-in-hand. If any of those tank, I’ve got enough elsewhere to keep me going. And if it all collapses…silver and gold become worthless, the banks disappear, the cash devalues to zero, and the stock market crashes. Well, thats a situation where money is way down the list of priorities and food, ammo, and fuel become primary measurements of wealth.

But…if you see some guys in suits outside your bank at 4:59pm on a Friday patiently waiting for the last customer to leave….well….maybe you might wanna get back on line and make a withdrawal.

When the cure is as bad as the disease

There’s a scene in some movie, I forget which one, where the one character is about to do something nefarious to another and they say:

“Don’t move. If I do this wrong it will hurt a little.”
“And if you do it right?”
“It’ll hurt alot.” <evil grin>

That about sums up government’s latest efforts to curb inflation by inflicting ‘pain’ on the average American. In short, the plan is to purposefully throw us into a recession to slow inflation. Trying to purposefully put the US into a recession at this point is like shooting out streetlights to make the sun go down.

First off, given this administrations clueless efforts at economic manipulation, I could totally see them oversteer and give us a depression rather than a recession. But, more importantly, how far down the path have we gone where a recession becomes the more attractive solution an economic problem?

If you never saw ‘World War Z’, a rather bad zombie movie, there’s a scene where the hero realizes that the zombies only attack healthy people. The zombies ignore the diseased and sick. So the hero injects himself with something fatal but curable. He injects himself, walks through the crowd of zombies unmolested, and when he gets to safety he is injected with the cure to what he injected himself with earlier. This economic strategy of purposeful recession to stem inflation is the economic analog to this.

Also, this doesn’t take into account that we’re already in a recession and, surprise, inflation is still a problem. (And, mind you, in the 70’s inflation was calculated in a different way than it is now. If we used the same method we used in the 70’s inflationary period we would see that our current inflation rate is rather significantly higher than what is being reported now.)

As the saying goes, there is no problem so difficult that government cannot make it worse. George Washington died not from illness, but rather from the treatments given to him at the time. It is ironic that Washington (the person) died from treatments meant to heal him from illness, and now we’re looking at Washington (the .gov) inflicting treatments for an economic illness that will be  more punishing than the illness itself.

So, even if we weren’t in a recession (but we are, despite the hastily redefined term ‘recession’) we can expect one as .gov tries to stem inflation by any means except the most logical one – stop the free money express.

Inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. At least, thats one of the definitions. By that definition the solution is to either reduce the amount of money being spent or increase the amount of goods. Since we’re still dealing with ‘supply chain issues’ from when .gov mandated businesses close up or run at half-strength, increasing the supply of goods might be tricky. Easier to reduce the amount of available money. How’s that done? Well…youre going to find out. Gov could stop with the handouts (student loans, extended unemployment, etc.) but what are the odds of that. A recession, though….unemployment goes up, people hold onto their money, they stop spending, prices come down, inflation is tamed, and all it cost you was the jobs, homes, and financial security of millions of citizens.

he trick is going to be being one of those citizens who isn’t negatively affected. How do you do that? Shoot, man…you already know he answer to that. Get out of debt. Yes, in periods of high inflation you are at an advantage by paying off debt with devalued money…but you still have to have the money. And if your job suddenly goes tango uniform, the last thing you need is to be sending your remaining dollars to the bank rather than to the grocery.

Get out of debt as fast as you can, buy in large quantities things you anticipate using up over time, try to have more than one revenue source, and spend deliberately and carefully.

Midterm elections are coming, and as unpalatable as this stuff is, it is going to be even worse when the elections are over and they can roll out the stuff that will really get the masses reeling.

Skip the jet ski and new car this year..and next year. Work on your economic resilience instead. There’s gonna be plenty of jet skis and like-new cars at bargain prices being sold by short-sighted sheeple before this is all done.

 

Rotating and reminiscing

One of the cool things about being a survivalist (or, at least, a moderately prepared survivalist) is that your stockpiles become snapshots of the economy in different periods of time. For example, today I rotated out some canned tomatoes. Tomatoes,  because of their high acidity, need to be rotated fairly frequently….a couple years is about all I’m willing to trust in a metal can (even lined ones). In glass jars is a different story, but for cans….a couple years, tops.

So, I headed up to WinCo, cornered the grocery manager, and asked him to order me up a few cases of my preferred tomatoes. As I was swapping them out with the previously stored ones, I could not help but notice:

As you can see from the image, these were purchased at CostCo in 2020. $5.99 for eight cans. Thats $6 divided by eight. That comes out to seventy-five cents per can. Todays cost at WinCo? 66% more per can. Must be that Putinflation that Dopey Joe keeps deflecting to.

Get used to it.

And, while I was at Winco, I checked for remaindered meat. WinCo doesn’t discount as much as Albertson’s used to, but they will discount by 30% when meats are approaching their ‘use by’ date. Me, I’m a big fan of animal protein, so I cleaned ’em out on small breakfast-type steaks. These’ll get vacuum sealed and put away in the deep freeze for use in the coming economic disaster….which means I’ll probably be eating them next month.

Sticker shock

It’s bad enough that at CostCo, cheapest gas in town, I was still forking out almost $4.70 per gallon (I’d happily put up with mean tweets for $2 gas), but then I decided to ease my agitated soul with some fast food. Nothing fancy, mind you…a double cheeseburger, fries, and a Coke. Nothing fancy. That’ll e $10.69 please. Are you kidding me? You could cover that meal combo with hookers and cocaine and it wouldn’t be worth ten bucks.

I feel sorry for the people on fixed incomes. It’s going to be some severe belt tightening and, for some, a major life change as mortgages that were previously affordable become less so as prices of everything else go up and start eating into the budget.

Fortunately, I’ve been somewhat ready for this for a while. I keep expenses low, multiple revenue streams, and no debt. Paying ten bucks for a cheeseburger still annoys me greatly, but at least I can still afford to do it. In fact, I still have enough margin that I can pick up some gold and silver, which I did this week. I told my metals guy that if he gets in any gold that he wants to sell at spot, let me know. Why would  he do that? Sometimes stuff comes in that is unattractive to a potential buyer…a $5 gold coin that someone drilled a hole in, an oddball weight of gold, a bent-in-half 1/10th, whatever. He buys it below spot and I’ll pay him spot for it. Why not? A tenth ounce of gold is still a tenth ounce of gold even if it is bent, tarnished, or whatever…as long as it’s really gold and weighs what it’s supposed to, I don’t care.

And in other news, while manhandling a box of bullets that weighted 70 pounds, I managed to crack a rib. Ow. Actually heard it go when it happened. So…moving a little slow this week.

And finally, Dopey Joe is stirring up the winds of ban in regards to gun control, which has now rebranded itself as ‘gun safety’. I bought another case of Pmags two weeks ago an was on the fence about whether it was a good idea. Now I feel better about it. Maybe a ban is coming, maybe not. But even if not, I’m still going to be ahead in terms of inflation.

It’s getting to be an even weirder world out there, kids. Let’s be careful out there.

Overnight price increase

One nice thing about blogging is that it gives me some benchmarks to work with. Apparently, at the beginning of the year, boneless skinless chicken breast was $1.98/# at Winco. A bit later in January it jumped to $2.18/#…and increase of almost 10%. Today at Winco I was met with this:

Thats right, kids…it jumped sixty cents a pound in one swoop. Thats’s an overnight increase of 28%. Or, if you start with January, a 40% increase in chicken in six months. Put another way, if you spent the same amount of money as you did in January to buy 30 days worth of chicken, you’d only get about 21 says worth of chicken now.

So, unless you got a 40% raise in the last six months, you are gonna be at a net loss chicken-wise.

It must have been a very recent price increase because there were still a few lower-priced trays left:

Other than gas prices, this has been the most in-your-face thing I’ve seen. And this will be happening on everything.

LARPing the Weimar

Y’know, just because I’m a survivalist with a closet full of guns, a basement full of food, and a winners attitude doesn’t mean that I actually want the Bad Things to happen.

I’m really curious to see how all this…mess…shakes out. I can’t see a way where any of these nagging things like inflation, ‘supply chain issues’, threats of war, pandemic, etc, come to a close any time soon. A year? Maybe. Two years? Maybe. Three months? Not gonna happen. But…I’ve been wrong before.

I have the worst record at the predicting the future, but I just cannot fathom a scenario where prices do not continue to rise, driven by higher fuel prices, absurd spending, and organic/manufactured logisitics issues. Heck, I just bought a set of tires the other day that I really didn’t want to buy because I knew, with the same level of certainty I know the sun will rise tomorrow, that they would just cost more later assuming they were even available. Sometimes it feels like LARPing the Weimar Germany days.

One thing I’m not doing these days is buying guns and ammo (although I may have just bought another case of Pmags). I settled the gun and ammo thing quite a while back. Which means right now my focus is on pretty much everything else because I think it’s a fait accompli that everything is only going to get more expensive and decrease in availability.

Like what? Geez, man,…everything. What am I buying more of? Every consumable I can think of…soap, toilet paper, laundry detergent, aluminum foil, plastic wrap, socks, shoes, q-tips, sponges, dish soap, batteries, etc, etc. Im actually reviewing the Preponomicon to see if maybe I should bump up my ‘ideal amount’ on a few things. And I was hoping that I was past the expensive part of tings, but nope. And, couple that with Bidenflation, and it’s an even harder kick to the fiscal jimmies.

But…I am at a level of resilience that makes me feel more confident….not about the future, but rather my ability to get through better than most.

Prices going up

The weekends are my usual shopping days…WinCo, CostCo, gas, and maybe WalMart. This means that weekends are the time when I look at the price of things and go “Hey, wasn’t this cheaper last weekend?” For example, gas was up another dime to around $4.18/gal. Ground beef 85/15? $5.25/#. CocaCola? $0.388 per can in a 35-can case….that’s almost 30% higher than what i used to pay about a year or so ago.

I feel bad for people on fixed incomes. For them, their only choice is to find ways to get more income or start cutting things out of their budget.

And, as if inflation wasn’t bad enough, we still have the Wuhan Flu hangover, ‘mostly peaceful’ demonstrations, a heightened possibility of WW3.1, and whatever nonsensical activities the goobers in Washington have planned.

I’m starting to think there will never be a point in my life where I look at a lifetime of being a survivalist and say “Wow, that was a waste.”

So what’s on tap these days for yours truly? Well, not much really. Other than working on financial resources, I’m mostly comfortable with what I’ve got. And, honestly, I’ve virtually no room for more stuff. I guess now is the time to start polishing what I’ve got and refine the small details.

.Gov is upping the interest rates a bit in hopes of slowing down the economy and thereby putting the brakes on inflation. But that has it’s own separate problems. It’s like chemotherapy – it targets the bad stuff but there’s a buncha collateral damage. So you better shrink that tumor fast because if you keep up the treatment for too long you’ll kill off the healthy stuff. And that’s about the extent of my oncological background. But, you get my idea, yes?

So what are you doing to get ahead of this inflationary episode? Cutting back? Buying bulk in advance? Locking in prices?

Inflation and fixed incomes

Iwas talking about inflation the other day with someone and they opined that inflation was ‘no big deal’. I asked them what about people on fixed incomes? They shrugged and said that having to spend a few extra dollars here and there won’t make any material difference. Not eating for a month is, to me, a material difference.

People on fixed incomes…pensions, Social Insecurity,  or disability…are the ones who get it worst. Let me give some examples….

Every month you carefully budget and spend $400 on groceries. That means for $4800 you get to eat all year…January 1 to December 31. Well, at 7% inflation you get to eat until…December 6th. And thats at the official rate of 7%. They took food and fuel out of inflation calculations years ago because those prices were too volatile…they could be affected by factors that had nothing to do with economic policy. Factors like oil embargos or crop failures. In all actuality, inflation is probably higher.

But, lets run with that 7% number. At 7% inflation you’re only able to spend out until that first week of December. After that you either do without, go into debt, use reserves, or come up with more income. And as inflation goes up, that deadline of when your money runs out moves closer and closer to ‘now’. And, whats worse, is that it’s compounded over the years…7% inflation this year means your money only buys 93% of what it did, and next year that money that bought 93% of what it used to will now only buy 93% of that. (In other words, your $100 that used to buy $100 of groceries will now only buy $93 worth. And next year it’ll buy about $87 worth of what it bought two years earlier.

What can you do? Well, I’m an idiot so my knee jerk reaction is ‘go make more money’. Alternatively, you juggle your budget to accommodate the new normal…you cut back on things, buy the cheaper brand, or find a less expensive source. But for some people thats not an option. I don’t know what to tell them. Only thing I could suggest to them is that they tighten their belts now so they can get used to making do with less.

For me, inflation is a pain in the butt, but it isn’t a crippler. My living expenses are low enough that having to pay extra on gas, food, etc, won’t break the bank but it does tie up resources I’d rather have elsewhere. Additionally, I have enough necessities in storage that i can defray a bout of inflation by living out of my stored supplies. Inflation doesn’t last forever, but it doesn’t go away overnight either…those of you who can remember the late 70’s and early 80’s know what I mean.

Inflation is an insidious thing…it devalues what you have worked hard to save, assuming you’ve dumped a pile of greenbacks in the bank. This is why you always hear people talking about ‘tangibles’. A ten dollar bill may only be worth nine dollars next year, but a Glock 17 will still be worth..a Glock 17 next year. If only there was some sort of compact form of wealth that would keep its value over time against inflation.

Fortunately, most of us arent on fixed incomes (yet), so we can roll with the inflationary punches a little bit. But the smart move, in my uneducated opinion, is to to buy any big-ticket items you’ve had your eye on sooner rather than later. (Assuming they are in stock and not subject to ‘supply chain issues’.) Why? Because it’s just gonna be more expensive later.

Oh, and before I forget, someone is actually coming out with a literal gold-backed currency. No, seriously, the bill is imbued with a specific weight of gold. I’m curious if stetting the bill on fire would result a small pile of ash and a residual tiny couple flecks of gold. No doubt this will got he way of the Liberty Dollar but the idea is clever. Paper notes that are actually gold.