Monthly Archives: March 2022

Fill ’em up

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A year or so back I wound up purchasing a handful of NATO-style gas cans to put in storage for such time as where I thought it made sense to have more than the usual amount of fuel stored up. Annnnnd…I was up at CostCo filling them this morning, Not necessarily in anticipation of a price increase (although that certainly comes into play) but also because of availability concerns. Look, there are a whole handful of factors that could limit your ability to purchase fuel…price, rationing, electronic payment failure due to retaliatory cyberattack, fuel refinery bottlenecks, delivery manpower issues, panic buying, hurricanes, pipeline failures, etc, etc. So…seemed like a good idea to up the storage a tad.

Additionally, I’d like to mention that having a supply of top-quality fuel cans on hand and in your storage for later use is not a bad idea since trying to find them now (not the plastic cans….the good metal ones) is like trying to find primers – difficult and sphincter-bruisingly expensive.

But….whats it worth for the peace of mind knowing that you’ve got the necessary fuel on hand to keep you and your family safe?

Economic butterfly effect

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Hazlitt, in his outstanding book “Economics In One Lesson“, said ““…the whole of economics can be reduced to a single lesson, and that lesson can be reduced to a single sentence. The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.”

That follow-through, the tracing of consequences through all the branches, is really what I recommend doing in these interesting times. If gas prices go up, for example, the result is…you pay more at the pumps. Thats the easy sound-bite answer. But follow the consequences further…transport costs go up, those costs get passed on to consumers, prices go up to make up the difference, everything costs more, less goods may get shipped, less goods shipped means shortages or ‘supply issues’, etc, etc. And the ‘more at the pumps’ translates into less money for food, bills, medicine, etc. Our world is a sweater that unravels pretty quickly when you start pulling a couple threads.

There’s a whole economic ‘butterfly effect‘ that probably needs to be examined. For most of us, the most immediate effect we’ve seen is a rise in gas prices (and a dramatic price drop in Ukrainian real estate). But there will be tons of other consequences that, in hindsight, will seem obvious. Economic warfare between nations will spawn all sorts of collateral and retaliatory consequences. Remember the oil embargo in ’73?

The point I’m trying to make is that, as competent survivalists, it would be a good idea to sit down in a quiet room and just think for awhile.How does whats going on in Europe affect your day-to-day existence? How will sanctions affect it? Retaliatory cyberwarfare? Nutjob self-appointed ‘warriors for [Ukraine/Putin/China/religion]‘? And that’s in addition to the bizarre and draconian experiences that Wuhan Flu Mk! & II have given us.

Even if you’re not a survivalist, you can still use your rational mind to examine the current situation and, I would think, come to the same conclusion: now is a good time to make sure you’ve increased your resilience. Resilience to a job loss, resilience to the toilet paper aisle being empty, resilience to $8/# ground beef, resilience to ‘temporary’ power outages, resilience to ‘peaceful demonstrations’, resilience to having to stand on line for…anything.

I’m very curious to see how all this shakes out. Nuclear WWIII? A virtual impossibility, IMHO. The minute Putin gives the order to launch I think his generals will take matters into their own hands and there’ll be an announcement that Comrade Putin has succumbed to the stresses of his position and is taking a medically mandated respite. Plus, there are several precedents for ‘cooler heads prevailing’.

But I’m usually wrong in my predictions, so…there’s that.

Im not saying………..

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$3.54/gal when I went to work this morning, $3.71/gal when I got off work. Hmm.

While it is important, no doubt, to stockpile guns, ammo, precious metals, and that sort of thing. I cannot overemphasize how important it is to stockpile the ‘unsexy’ stuff. The toothpaste, socks, light bulbs, aluminum foil, dental floss, laundry soap, etc. Everything is going to a) go up in price and b) have it’s availability fluctuate.

I’m not saying the power grid is going to shut down and we’ll all freeze to death, but what will happen is prices will go up and you’ll shave 5 degrees off your thermostat…or turn the heat off at night….or wear more layers around the house.

I’m not saying you’ll go to the gas pumps and find them empty, I’m saying you’ll go there, fill up, and then question every trip you make afterwards. You’ll get your groceries from one grocery store each week rather than drive to the other side of town because that one grocery store has the special orange juice you like

I’m not saying you’ll be eating freezedrieds and MRE’s for breakfast, lunch, and dinner….but you will reduce the amount of meat and other premium ingredients in what you cook. And maybe you’ll take leftovers more seriously. .And you’ll return from the market with less food for having spent the same amount of money.

I’m not saying you’ll sit up at night with a shotgun across your knees, keeping watch while your family sleeps. But you will become more acutely aware of your surroundings and the people around you.

It isn’t the end of the world yet, but it’s definitely a change in the world. How far down this slope we go is still anyone’s guess. But, for me, I’m focused less on ammo and guns right now and more on things I buy for my day-to-day life that I’d like to not have to worry about.

Two weeks ago it was a fairly unexciting, though gloomy, world….I wonder what it’ll be two weeks from now.

 

Scenes from the supermarket

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This is the sort of thing that makes my brain itch:

These signs were at the meat and deli counter at the supermarket. What I didn’t take a picture of was the other sign apologizing for the deli counter keeping limited hours because of ‘staffing shortages’.

Look, I’m the first to admit that I overthink things. I’ve spent the last twenty years on this blog not saying that the sky is falling, but rather that it is about to fall. Still maintain that.

Let’s look at things objectively. Inflation is among us, whittling away your saved money. Agreed? And fuel prices, which were already moving north, are going to definitely be going up now that World War Three is finally on deck. So..we can agree that fuel prices aren’t likely to come down anytime soon. Agreed? And we know that businesses do not stay in business by operating at a loss. Increases in costs (esp. due to that increased fuel costs) and shortages of material/manpower mean that consumer prices have to go…up.

So what you’ve got here, m’friend, is a virtual certainty that literally everything you buy is going to not go down in price, will likely not stay at its current price, and is pretty much guaranteed to increase in price. Assuming its even available. And not rationed.

I recommend that you cut the fat out of your budget, skip buying the jet ski, big TV, or skip the vacation, and funnel that money into food, ammo, fuel, clothes, diapers, or whatever else you buy often and want to avoid paying more for. Or that you don’t want to risk availability issues.

I’m not saying that because I think T-62’s and Russian paratroops are gonna be landing on our shores. I’m saying it because there’s at least a a half-dozen catalysts (war, inflation, pandemic, etc.) on the loose that by themselves would be cause for heightened awareness and thoughtfulness. But theres more than one..and their effect is synergistic.

If you’ve got a family or partner/spouse who thinks you’ve always been ‘a little out there’ with ‘all that survivalist nonsense’ you’re gonna have a rough time of it. You’re gonna have to decide if incurring the wrath of those close to you is worth giving them the margin of safety that comes from sacrificing the trip to Hawaii and buying canned goods instead. I don’t envy you. But sometimes you’ve got to get all 1950’s and put your foot down and say “I’m doing this because I believe it’s the right thing to do for us, to keep us safe, to keep us secure, and I make no apologies for it.” Lemme know how that works out.

If you’re lucky enough to be in a situation where those around you are ‘on the same page’, then sit down with them (with the TV and phones off) and talk about your-and-their concerns and make plans how youre going to address those concerns. And… Its time to talk to your like-minded buddies and agree to share information….what store has primers in stock? Who has sirloin on sale this week? What gas station did you see with the best price?

In all likelihood at this time next year things will look alot like they do now…we’ll still go to work, we’ll still have hot water and electricity, we’ll still go to CostCo on the weekends. I’d put it at the high 90% range. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t going to be hiccups between now and then. Do the things necessary to smooth out any bumps in the road that may appear.