Upcoming NFA tax change

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As you may know, after the first of the year the $200 transfer tax on certain NFA items (short-barreled shotguns and rifles, and suppressors) goes away. You still have the annoying background check and delays, but at least you won’t be paying $200 for the privilege.

The demand for those kinds of items (hereafter just referred to as ‘NFA items’) has always been tiny compared to the demand for non-NFA stuff. The reason, of course, is because most people don’t want to go through the hassle…this is evidenced by the fact we have ‘wrist braces’.

Since demand is usually fairly mild it’s not too hard to imagine that production rates of these NFA items is also a bit dialed back.

So, what do you think is going to happen after January 1st when theres no $200 tax to deter people anymore? Demand will go up, of course. But production rates my not be able to meet that demand. So when you go to buy a nice shiny Mojave9 or Sparrow, your dealer might say “Yeah, those are backordered.”

It makes sense that if youre of the mind to take advantage of the new rules on January 1st your strategy should probably be to order the the NFA item now, pay for it now, and have the dealer sit on it until January 1st and then do the paperwork.

 

When you don’t miss the .gov during a shurtdown

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Its been, what?, a month of government shutdown and…I haven’t even noticed. But, according to the news that may change when the barbarous hordes that rely on government aid to eat discover that the free money isn’t flowing into their EBT card as usual.

The internet, a bastion of truth and fact, has all sorts of warnings that people buying groceries will be attacked by the EBT crowd for their groceries. And that there will be mass shoplifting. And looting. And….well, you fill in the rest.

Will this sort of thing happen? Probably in some cases as people get fueled by these same articles. But by and large I don’t think so. If youre too lazy to work for food youre probably too lazy to steal it. But, I’ve been wrong before.

What amuses me terribly is that there are organizations and food banks that are rushing to cater (literally) to the poor souls of federal employees who may be going hungry as this nasty and evil ‘shutdown’ goes on. The depth of my absolute indifference for the plight of federal employees simply cannot be measured. How can you work at a government job, with government benefits, at government wages, and government schedules, and somehow not be able to put away enough money in the bank to buy yourself groceries for a month? How does that happen?

If you’re folding shirts for $12 and hour for twenty hours a week at Cabelas….yeah, youre living on a tight budget if you have a budget at all. But working as a GS whatever for Uncle Sam seems to give enough that you should be able to tuck a couple grand into a mason jar in the backyard for emergencies.

But…you know what? I don’t care. It’s not a nice thing to say out loud, but I have virtually no concern for anyone on “food stamps”. I absolutely recognize that there are plenty of people who genuinely are unable to feed themselves for very legitimate reasons. And it’s a shame that those people have to share the moral outrage that is directed at the able-bodied and ambition-challenged parasites that most people think of when food stamps are mentioned.

Do you know what happens if someone I care about winds up in a situation where they can’t afford to feed themselves and they need to run to .gov? I feed them. And I help them get back on their feet. And I look out for them as they get their act back together. It is not a financial hardship for me to feed someone I care about. I’ve been hungry before and as a result I’m always sensitive about food. In fact, I generally refuse to eat in front of other people unless theyre eating as well because I can’t shake the feeling that if I’m eating and the other person isnt, then somethings wrong and I need to get them some food.

But for now, this ‘government shutdown’ only affects me in one way: it makes me more careful and observant around food distribution places like Winco, Costco, Albertsons, and any stop-n-rob I happen to be in. ‘Flash mobs’ seeking ‘food justice’ by looting the shelves at Kroegers isn’t likely to be a thing here in flyover country but you never can tell what’s going to happen.

And we have, as survivalists, heard for years that ‘society is three days of food away from collapse’ and ‘hungry people are dangerous people’. Any violence that occurs now isn’t going to really be out of hunger because short of an absolute societal collapse, it seems, to  me, to be pretty difficult to starve in this country. Heck, we’re the only country in the world with fat poor people.

So, as far as Im concerned, the shutdown can go on for as long as it likes.

 

Storage in anticipation

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Still haven’t dialed in the piece of property I want to buy. But I have no doubt that its going to happen within the next year. I mean, sure, its possible it won’t but I really think it’s a pretty much a lock. To that end, it seems to me that it isn’t a bad idea to start picking up the things I anticipate needing…another generator, four wheeler, PV setup materials, batteries, tools, equipment, materials, storage tanks, piping, wiring, fixtures, etc, etc.

The problem with that is…where do I keep it until I have the need for it? I’m not throwing it all under a tarp in my in-town backyard, and I’m not storing it in my living room indefinitely. It seems to me, at first blush, that the answer is to get a storage unit. (An ideal plan would be to just buy a cargo container to use for storage, but, again, where the heck am I going to keep it until I buy property?) [Although, I could, I suppose, buy a small 10′ conex cube, park it in a storage unit, and have a sort of secure storage wthin a secure storage.]

So, I need to shop around for a storage unit, I think. This of course opens up all sorts of barrels of fishhooks in regards to opsec, persec, and just avoiding general thievery. The most obvious way would be to simply not store anything of substantial value and high portability (guns, for example) in such a place. But…thats not always going to be feasible. While I’d never store guns and ammo in a storage unit that was not under my direct observation, I am going to need a place for fuel cans, water jugs, blue barrels. generator, four wheeler, tubs of clothing, bedding, etc, etc.

I’d like to start amassing things now since a) prices are only gonna go up and b) who knows where availability might go? And by buying before the property is acquired gives me time to research things to make sure I’m getting the best bang for my buck. The major detraction from doing this, as I see it, is that this involves spending money before I purchase the property…which means I may be handicapping myself in terms of available cash when a property comes up that I like. I suppose that can be mitigated by saving the very high dollar items for further down the road after the purchase, but there are definitely some things Id like to have all packed up and ready to go once the ink dries.

I suppose its time to crack open Excel and start a list with pricing, sources, priorities, and that sort of thing.

 

Loewes water container

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I was heading back to work from my lunch break and cut through the Loewe’s parking lot and beheld these:

Hmm. Interesting. I was curious so I pulled over to get some detail. Its a 260-gal emergency water storage tank. Conveniently, it’ll fit through a doorway. Inconveniently, it’s about 2200# when filled…so strictly a basement or garage item.

I try to keep at least 75 gallons or so of water on hand at all times, and theres another 50 gallons or so in the water heaters, but if you ever need to break into your stored water you probably won’t think that a larger tank is ‘too much’.

The reason I posted this is because I find it interesting that something like an ’emergency water storage tank’ has gone mainstream enough to be at Loewe’s. I should also like to point out that if youre in Missoula or thereabouts, Murdoch’s and Mountain Supply both carry a very large variety of water tanks…from the convenient and small 35-gal. all the way up to the monstrous and useful 2500-gal.

When I get my little hideyhole squared away there will be at least a couple of these sitting around ‘just in case’.

Switching over

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The gunternet is in a bit of an excited state because it has been announced (sorta) that Glock is changing the design of their pistols in order to make them less ‘convertible’ to full-auto using the slideplade-mounted ‘switches’ that are all the rage in certain places.

Here’s the part that has me scratching my head. The Gen3 version of the Glock pistol has hit the stage where manufacturers can make, generally, copies of it. Trademark protections are still there so you can’t make the gun look like a Glock, but you can copy it down to the smallest part. We see this in the Ruger RXM, Palmetto Dagger, and a few other off-brand importers and manufacturers. Additionally, Glock-style frames are 3D printed easily enough, and aftermarket Gen3 slides and components are also well represented in the market.

So, if Glock brings out this model that is designed to be incompatible with the already-illegal ‘switches’, why wouldn’t a potential bad guy simply switch to a Glock clone that apes the Gen3 design? Or will this be the ‘camels nose under the tent’ to create a rubric where a gun has to meet some sort of arbitrary ‘convertability standard’ to be permitted into commerce? (Much like California’s current ‘approved handgun’ scheme.)

Beats me. I’ve a dozen Gen3 17’s and 19’s sitting here, as well as a dozen clones from Palmetto. I’ve never been interested in a full-auto Glock so my only dog in this fight is about the precedent it sets. If there ever comes a time I actually need a full-auto firearm..there will probably be plenty of them laying around.

But…. this is a good example of how, for totally unexpected reasons, your logistics can shift. I’m a devotee of the Gen3 Glocks…and as such I stocked all sortsa parts. Most parts are not generation-specific….Part X from a Gen3 will most likely be identical to a Part X from a Gen4 which is probably going to be identical to a Part X from a Gen5, etc, etc. Not for every single part, but for enough of them to make logistics pretty easy. Now, the man who buys a ‘V’ series Glock may discover that the last five generations of trigger bar…or striker cover…or locking block….may not work in his new pistol.

The moral here is that whatever boomtoy you plan on running through Ragnarok with should have as complete and well-thought-out logistics as you can afford – spare parts, spare mags, etc, etc. And most of the time it won’t be a problem, but sometimes something will happen and the ‘tweak’ made to a particular boomtoy suddenly renders future logistics a bit uncertain. So…don’t hesitate to buy the support material (and materiel) as soon as possible when you introduce a new gun into your life.

More Tapco

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I’d picked up a couple Mini-14s over the course of the year and that means that the mag:gun ratio shifted unfavorably after each purchase. Whats that mean for the savvy survivalist? Duh..it means buy more mags:

I stumbled across these Tapco Gen2 mags on Gunbroker and made a deal to take all the guy had. I’ve posted about these mags before and I recommend them. Even the Ruger factory mags arent always 100%….the 20-rd mags work flawlessly but the 30’s sometimes fail to feed reliably. These Tapcos (and the Eagles) seem to work more reliably than the Ruger OEM…and theyre usually cheaper (when you can find them).

As I’ve said, the Mini-14 isn’t even a tertiary level of backup around here but despite that, it doesn’t mean there shouldn’t be a decent mag supply on hand for them.

“Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn’t stop to think if they should.”

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I don’t know who asked for this, but…..
Admittedly, there arent very many 10mm carbines out there, although there are more now than there used to be. Ruger just came out with one on their LC platform which is doomed for failure. HiPoint, of all people, came out with one. And there’s a few oddball AR platforms out there. But…compared to the 9mm, and even the .40, the field of 10mm carbines is pretty small.

Not sure who the market is for this thing. I mean, the natural answer is that its for the man who owns a 1omm pistol, but if I’m carrying a semi-auto 10mm Im probably want a carbine that is semi auto and takes the same mags. On the other hand, there are 10mm revolvers out there so it might make a good companion for them….but if youre going to carry a revolver and a levergun, why not . 357 or .44 instead of a boutique round for a semiauto?

Will I buy one? Probably. Just for the novelty value. But I admire RugerMarlin for trying new things.

All the metal they can hold

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Gold and silver, in case you didnt notice, took a bit of a dip. Is it “The Dip”? Who knows? I just know that I picked these up:

Interestingly, my local ‘guy’ was selling generic silver at $.50 over spot, which is pretty much an all time low for him. These Eagles were a little more than that ($2 over), but I always wanted to flesh out my silver holdings with some minted stuff rather than just generics. However….buy the generics first. Get the most silver for your money.

Why the slump in metals? Profit taking, I am told. The story I hear, from someone who is well positioned to know, is that a large holder decided it was time to cash in their chips. As a result..prices drop. They might have another little dip here, but theyre definitely on their way up.

Regardless, I had a few bucks sitting around and its never a bad idea to convert a little cash into metals every so often. Got plenty of guns, plenty of ammo, plenty of food….but there’s always room for precious metals.

When the war finally kicks off…with Russia, China, or both….I expect things will get rather unstable quickly and some hard currency is never a bad thing to have in a time of wild uncertainty.

The harsh reality of gun logistics

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Remember when the SCAR from FN was gonna be the new standard by which all other ‘battle rifles/carbines’ would be judged? Maybe not so much. And while FN makes excellent stuff and parts breakage may not be as big an issue as with some brands, if youre gonna drop several grand on one rifle youd like to have the expectation its going to be able to live a long life of parts support from the OEM. To be fair, there is some third-party representation out there for the SCAR, but with the discontinuation of the model it seems those third parties are going to have to pivot to other things to take up the revenue loss. In short, if you love your SCAR perhaps it is the time to stockpile parts and mags. Or, trade it in for something a bit more plebian that is well-supported.

As Friend Of The BLog(tm), Tam over at View From The Porch sagely notes about FN: They’re still making ARs.

I ceratinly go off the reservation once in a while when it comes to picking up a less-than-common boomtoy. I have a few Mini-14s here which are notoriously difficult to source spare parts for, for example. But for ‘run out the door’ guns for when things suddenly become PvP, it’s the boring-and-predictable trio of AR, Glock, and 870/500. Guns that are rather ‘unsexy’ but will have logistical support  until youre on life support.

This doesnt mean those are the ‘best’ guns. It just means that theyre the ones likely to have the biggest, broadest, most robust logisitcal support. Just because something is popular or numerous doesnt always equate to ‘best’. Sometimes the not-the-best is the smarter choice simply because the logistics support is stronger. I love  me some HiPower, but I carry a Glock. I shoot better with the HiPower, but finding parts and mags is not nealy as easy as for the Glock. And since I usually buy guns, for preparedness purposes, with the attitude of “what if I can’t get any more of these tomorrow?” I tend to trend towards stuff that is going to have easy logistics.

In reality, if you have a SCAR it is highly likely, almost to the point of certainty, that you will never use it enough to have a parts breakage issue come to the point that the rifle is shut down. But I don’t like to play the odds if I can avoid it. Sure, the likelihood of tomorrow bringing the apocalypse and me spending the next twenty years living, running, hiding, fighting, guarding, and shooting with one rifle is virtually zero. But it isn’t zero. Survivalism is about resilience….min-max’ing things to give yourself every possible percentage point in your favor. And life has a habit of throwing some wild curve balls.

Doesn’t mean the AR is the ‘best’ rifle, it simply means that it is the best supported rifle. And long-term support is a very highly desired quality to have when picking something to run out the door with.

Invariably, someone in comments will chime in with ‘amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics’. I’m not a professional, but I don’t think I’m an amateur either. What I definitely am is a guy who tries to set dogma aside (“Hurrr  hurr…back-to-back World War champions!”) and look at the choices from a particular viewpoint. That viewpoint is the one of “If what I have today is all I can have for the rest of my life, would I be okay?” If tomorrow the pipeline were shut off for the AR…no new guns, no new mags, etc., would I have the logistics in place to keep them going for the long-term? Absolutely. The market has provided unlimited resources that make getting squared away for a scenario like that a piece of cake. Compare against, say, the SCAR…or the G36….or the Mini-14…or the Beretta AR70…or any ’boutique’ or niche carbine.

All this to say that when you’re picking your next boomtoy with an eye towards the apocalypse, it might serve you well to pick something with an already established logistics train. At the moment, the AR platform is probably the most heavily supported platform of anything with a shoulder stock on it in the US. AK, HK, M1A, whatever….all fine bullet thowers but all way down on the ladder when compared to the logistical all-you-can-eat buffet that the AR brings.

I know it sounds like I’m stroking the AR here, but its simply that it is the most relatable and prevalent example of a wildly robustly supported platform. It’s subjective, but here’s my thinking on what platforms have the most robust support:

Rifle/carbine – The AR by miles. After that probably the AK. Everything after those two are more distant on the list. Plenty of support out there for the M1A and the AR10, but not like those first two choices.

Shotgun – Remington and Mossberg. Even with Remington’s reduced role these days there are literally tons and tons of parts, barrels, stocks, etc out there waiting to be had. Same for Mossberg. That Turkish M4 Benelli-clone you bought is cool, but when you need a new recoil spring or shell lifter you might have a problem.

Pistol – Glock wins hands down. One of the few guns you can build from scratch using only aftermarket parts. Maybe tied with 1911 for ubiquity, but as I’ve said, a Glock repair uses, at most, a punch and a hammer. A 1911 repair uses a mill and a lathe. VP9, Beretta 92, Sig 226, Smith M&P, all fine guns but not nearly the same level of support….close though.

.22 Rifle – The 10/22 is the hands-down logistics champ. Nothing else comes close.

Im sure SCAR owners will be fine, and FN says they’ll have parts for years, but that doesn’t change the fact that when you adopt a new platform you are at the mercy of the logistics needed to support it. Something to think about on your next preparedness gun purchase.

 

Serendipity

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A rare day full of serendipity. There was a small gun show this weekend here at the fairgrounds. Ok, figured I’ll go with friends. While there I came across a grail gun that a friend of mine had been wanting. I had planned on getting it for them for Christmas, but it was here, now, new in box and with no paperwork trail. So….happy early Christmas buddy! For those who are curious, it was a stainless Ruger 10/22 takedown with fibre optic sights, threaded barrel, and a Magpul Backpacker stock….ah, its easier to just show you. Out the door at $400. (Oh..and I threw in ten Butler Creek mags from that purchase years and years ago.)

And, while I was there, I just happen to run into a friend of mine who is 6’4″ and has spent the last twenty some-odd years swinging freight at a trucking terminal for a living. Why is this fortuitous? Because last weekend, friend of 10/22 takedown fame found me a piece of furniture at a used furniture place here in town and it was delivered to my front porch this morning. To my front porch. See, I can’t just let two strangers into my house. Bad PerSec. But I’m also running out of friends with high levels of upper body strength. And this friend also had a Ruger 77 in .30-06 that he was selling that I snagged from him for $300. I didn’t need an ’06 but I’ll never turn down a quality paperless firearm at a good price…and by the way, can I borrow you for fifteen minutes to help me move a piece of furniture? And…he could.

So I took the .30-06 to its new home and managed to get this monstrous mission-style dresser moved into my hallway just outside the bedroom. From there, I can manage it into the bedroom once I rearrange the furniture.

So, all in all, got a lot accomplished today. I am fully expecting the pendulum to swing in the other direction in the next few days to balance out the good….so Im dreading what the recalibration looks like. But, for now, new rifle and a piece of real grown-up furniture.