Higher Breyers

Went grocery shopping yesterday to try and catch some post-Thanksgiving turkey sales. Didnt really see anything spectacular, but I did notice that my favorite ice cream…Breyers…was at…wait for it…..over $7 for a not-a-half gallon. Merciful Crom, when the heck did $7 for grocery-store-quality ice cream become normal?

This is one of the reasons I feel a bit pleased with myself in terms of being a survivalist. When food, fuel, and other staples start getting out of control, and wages don’t keep up, I can dilute the effect by relying on my rather prodigious stash of supplies.

But, also, my survivalist lifestyle and its non-stop concern for consequences has led me to a life where, when ice cream hits $7 and gas hits $5, I can absorb it without too much difficulty because i’ve lived a life of financial moderation. No mortgage, no student loans, no car loans, no bank loans, no medical debt. Doesn’t mean I’m indifferent to the mess that the economy is being made into, just means I can weather it better than Joe Sixpack who spends it as fast as he gets it on stupid stuff like big screen televisions, jet skis, and chrome wheels.

But, dang it, $7 for ice cream is just ridiculous. And it doesnt stop there… I hit Wendy’s for lunch and a double cheeseburger, fries, and a coke is $12. What the heck??? I don’t want to be one of those guys from my childhood who, when confronted with a price they didnt like, would say “When I was a kid, this cost a nickel”, but that same combo was $7 just a couple years ago.

Being a survivalist is more than a basement full of MRE’s and 5.56mm. It’s thinking about the potential possibilities of what the future may bring. As they say, “the dildo of consequences rarely arrives lubed”. And thinking about consequences is a really large part of what being a survivalist is really about.

Being forced to choose between food and gas, rent or medicine, or an emergency room visit versus shoes for the kids, is no way to live. I feel bad for people who are in that strait, but most people have had just as long to get ready for this sort of thing as I did…and they had better income during that time. So, yeah, I feel bad for you but you’re the one who played your mandolin all summer while Ii was getting ready for winter.

Article – Half cows, entire pigs: Families are buying meat in bulk to save money

It was the $200 weekly grocery bills that finally did him in. With three young kids and soaring meat costs, Logan Wagoner decided it was time to go whole hog.

This spring, the St. Louis attorney bought half a cow and an entire pig – plus a freezer that now holds 320 pounds of bacon, sausages, rib-eye steaks, ground beef and soup bones in his basement.

I’m somewhat amused, and mildly dismayed, that it’s only now that the normies have discovered that, golly, buying in bulk saves money. Who knew? There is, of course, another alternative to dropping that much money at once and that is to actively pursue sales and bargains, which has generally been my strategy. There are plenty of cases, documented here on the blog, where I found a closeout or sale on some meat and swooped in on the whole batch.

But the notion that buying a freezer and half a beef is somehow newsworthy? Dude, one generation ago this was standard practice.

I’d say that its a pretty solid bet that 95% of the people reading this already have freezers, and keep them full all the time. And…thats not newsworthy.

Up, up, and away

Between lunch and getting off work, the local gas station raised it’s price another ten cents. Thats almost a fifty cent increase from this time last week.

And when fuel prices go up, the cost of everything delivered by fuel-consuming vehicles goes up. And electric vehicles are not the answer that the lefties would have you think it is. After all, where is that electricity coming from? Why, fossil-fuel power plants in most places. Either in your tank or in a generating station somewhere, you’re still burning hydrocarbons.

For those of you on fixed incomes…..ouch.

Inflation and fixed incomes

Iwas talking about inflation the other day with someone and they opined that inflation was ‘no big deal’. I asked them what about people on fixed incomes? They shrugged and said that having to spend a few extra dollars here and there won’t make any material difference. Not eating for a month is, to me, a material difference.

People on fixed incomes…pensions, Social Insecurity,  or disability…are the ones who get it worst. Let me give some examples….

Every month you carefully budget and spend $400 on groceries. That means for $4800 you get to eat all year…January 1 to December 31. Well, at 7% inflation you get to eat until…December 6th. And thats at the official rate of 7%. They took food and fuel out of inflation calculations years ago because those prices were too volatile…they could be affected by factors that had nothing to do with economic policy. Factors like oil embargos or crop failures. In all actuality, inflation is probably higher.

But, lets run with that 7% number. At 7% inflation you’re only able to spend out until that first week of December. After that you either do without, go into debt, use reserves, or come up with more income. And as inflation goes up, that deadline of when your money runs out moves closer and closer to ‘now’. And, whats worse, is that it’s compounded over the years…7% inflation this year means your money only buys 93% of what it did, and next year that money that bought 93% of what it used to will now only buy 93% of that. (In other words, your $100 that used to buy $100 of groceries will now only buy $93 worth. And next year it’ll buy about $87 worth of what it bought two years earlier.

What can you do? Well, I’m an idiot so my knee jerk reaction is ‘go make more money’. Alternatively, you juggle your budget to accommodate the new normal…you cut back on things, buy the cheaper brand, or find a less expensive source. But for some people thats not an option. I don’t know what to tell them. Only thing I could suggest to them is that they tighten their belts now so they can get used to making do with less.

For me, inflation is a pain in the butt, but it isn’t a crippler. My living expenses are low enough that having to pay extra on gas, food, etc, won’t break the bank but it does tie up resources I’d rather have elsewhere. Additionally, I have enough necessities in storage that i can defray a bout of inflation by living out of my stored supplies. Inflation doesn’t last forever, but it doesn’t go away overnight either…those of you who can remember the late 70’s and early 80’s know what I mean.

Inflation is an insidious thing…it devalues what you have worked hard to save, assuming you’ve dumped a pile of greenbacks in the bank. This is why you always hear people talking about ‘tangibles’. A ten dollar bill may only be worth nine dollars next year, but a Glock 17 will still be worth..a Glock 17 next year. If only there was some sort of compact form of wealth that would keep its value over time against inflation.

Fortunately, most of us arent on fixed incomes (yet), so we can roll with the inflationary punches a little bit. But the smart move, in my uneducated opinion, is to to buy any big-ticket items you’ve had your eye on sooner rather than later. (Assuming they are in stock and not subject to ‘supply chain issues’.) Why? Because it’s just gonna be more expensive later.

Oh, and before I forget, someone is actually coming out with a literal gold-backed currency. No, seriously, the bill is imbued with a specific weight of gold. I’m curious if stetting the bill on fire would result a small pile of ash and a residual tiny couple flecks of gold. No doubt this will got he way of the Liberty Dollar but the idea is clever. Paper notes that are actually gold.

 

 

 

Sticker shock

You know, the problem with living out of your freezer for months at a time is that when you ultimately do head down to the supermarket to grab some dead animal flesh you are shocked at the price because you’ve not had to be aware of pricing for the last several months.

Even at the grocery places that traditionally have been the least expensive it was still, to me, outrageous what the prices on beef was.

Chicken even took a hit….Winco had been selling boneless skinless chicken breast at 1.98/#. Then a couple weeks ago there was a note limiting purchase to four trays of meat. Then last week they were completely out. And then when I was in there today…it was back…at $2.18/#…almost a 10% increase. Hmmm.

Pork loin roasts have now become my ‘go to’ for animal protein since it’s the least expensive of the meats I usually buy.

But, geez Ruiz, 85/15 at $5.50? 93/7 at almost $7? Owie. I need to keep my eyes open for deals on meats like I do for deals on ammo.

Meat

I am amazed at what meat prices are doing these days. I was at CostCo the other day and regular 88/12 ground beef was something like $4.30 a pound. For freakin’ hamburger! It still seems like just yesterday I was getting it remaindered for less than $2/#. Fortunately I have a pretty healthy supply of the stuff in the deep freeze and, honestly, I don’t eat it that much. My go to is usually chicken breast and, as of late, various pork cuts. WinCo sells boneless skinless chicken breast at $1.99/#, which is reasonable, and pork for around $1.85/#. For my cooking, which is often a stir-fry type of affair, those types of meat are just fine.

But, good grief, hamburger at almost four and a half bucks a pound? What the heck are they feeding those cows? Imported Swiss hay?

But, this is the sort of thing I suppose we should be getting ready to encounter on a more frequent basis. Some of you may be old enough to remember a time in the 1970’s when inflation and meat prices were driving many people to designate one day of the week as “Meatless [weekday]”…Meatless Mondays, etc, etc.

I’m an omnivore, as all of us human-ish types are. I do , however, like meat. In fact, I am of the opinion that a meal is not a meal if there is no meat. (Eggs kinda count but that’s getting pretty nitpicky).

Here’s a really odd thing – I’ve been taking pictures of the pricing board at the CostCo meat department for the last few months and the price of some meats has actually come down. That kinda puzzled me until it occurred to me that with ‘supply chain issues’ and whatnot, it may make more sense for ranchers to slaughter their herds (and thus flood the market and drive prices down) than to pay higher prices for feed as the supply becomes unpredictable. What you wind up with is a glut and price drop…for now. The other side of that equation will not be a happy one for the consumer.

I’m lucky because I can live with ‘cheap meats’. I have a pressure cooker, cast iron cookware, a penchant for cooking, and rather low standards. I can take pretty much any cut of meat and make it into something I’m willing to eat. So…I’ve no problem with switching over to cheaper cuts and critters.

But, geez Ruiz, $almost four and a half bucks for burger is just alarming.

Wealth

It’s a lovely, warm, touchy-feely thing to say that the wealthiest man is the one that has love in his life…love of family, friends, etc.

Uhm..yeah. That and fifty cents will get you a round of .223. For now.

What does wealth look like at the moment? Well, for me, it looks like this:And this:

Because of this:

Ok, its actually a bit more complicated than that….the real damage hasn’t even started to show yet. But give it time…. this time next year $100 worth of groceries is gonna be a lot less bulky and heavy than you remember it being.

 

Investments vs. wealth preservation

First, some definitions –

conflate – combine (two or more texts, ideas, etc.) into one. Example: conflating clip and magazine when they clearly are not the same thing.

As I sometimes mention market investments, and then segue into things like metals and tangibles, people bring up ‘preserving wealth’. And then they go on to say that [xxxx] is a bad investment. Ya gotta keep in mind, investment is not the same as wealth preservaiton, broadly speaking.

I have $2000 cash in my hands. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that $2000 will buy me six months worth of groceries…or gasoline….or health insurance. As inflation works its erosive magic, the price of things go up. Next year, that $2000 buys me only five months of groceries, gas, or insurance. So, I need my $2000 to suddenly have the buying power of $2400, since it now takes $2400 to buy what $2000 bought last year. How can I do that?

Really, only one of two ways: either take the $2000 cash and ‘put it to work’ in such a way that in a year it is $2400. Investing is one way to do that. So is gambling. So is buying something for $2000 and trying to sell it for $2400 next year. Or buying something for $2000, renting it for $33 a month for a year, and then having $2000 and $400 worth of rental income. You get the idea. As inflation rises, you’ve gotta hit that blackjack table for higher and higher wins in order to purchase the same amount of goods as you did last year. Inflation is a sneaky bugger.

Plan B is to take the $2000 and turn it into something that will, very broadly speaking, always be worth what you paid for it across different currencies. Meaning: $2000 of gold today, buys what $2000 of cash will buy today next year. It ‘held its value’. There’s a very well-traveled (why doesn’t traveled have two L’s???) ‘fact’ about how a hundred years ago an ounce of gold would buy you [a new suit/a Colt pistol/etc.] and how an ounce of gold today would buy you those same things, thereby proving that gold ‘retains its value’ over time. I think there’s some truth to that, but it’s not a sure thing.

I invest in the market. When I want my money to make money, to grow, I go to the market. The market has never hit zero, and so far it has always bounced back from whatever the crisis du jour was. Does that mean it’ll never go to zero? Of course not. It just means that I have enough belief in the unlikeliness of a market-destroying event that I’m comfortable investing in it. However, I am not comfortable enough to put all my eggs in one basket. For some people, the idea of ‘letting it ride in the market’ is akin to betting it all on black at the roulette table. For some, their idea of investing is something like real estate or a vending machine business or something that puts their money (capital) in one place and it makes money by collecting rent or sales revenue. Thats great, and I do that too… but, honestly, I’d rather spend three hours a week on my keyboard with a brokerage wesbite than chase tenants and customers for money. But..suspenders-n-belt….I do both. I don’t buy gold/silver to increase a value, I buy it to retain a value…

I invest in the market, but I keep my critical money in in metals, property, tangibles, and some cash (even though the cash loses a bit to inflation I find it is pretty necessary to have a certain amount of liquidity in case things come up that require money in a hurry. I’m willing to expose some money to inflation by just having it sit in the bank for convenience.) As I’ve gotten older and more deliberate in financial matters, I know how much I need to keep inviolate and how much I can ‘play’ with and expose to various degrees of risk. If the market crashed to zero, today, right now, would it wipe me out? Nope. Would it hurt? Oh heck yeah. But I’d still have property, precious metals, food, guns, some cash, and, of course, mans basic survival tool. I’d take a hit alright, but I wouldn’t lose my lifestyle…I’d still have a house, hot water, a vehicle, electricity, and food. I wouldn’t have to start from zero.

I mention all of this because, as I said, it seems like when I drift into this topic many people conflate investing with wealth preservation. Investing adds to your purchase power, preserving keeps it at the current level. Big difference..especially in strategy and tactics.

Look, you will never, ever, ever go wrong by having ‘too much’ money. I hate to use that term because it implies that there is a ‘good’ amount of money to have and beyond that is simply ‘extra’. Thats the thinking of Bernie Sanders and his fellow travelers. But, broadly, when in doubt…add to your stack of cash/gold/property/investments.

I’m a cautious person, with some bad experiences, a fierce sense of self-preservation, a little bit of head-knowledge, and access to the internet….and it is my personal opinion that, yeah, we’re heading for inflation, maybe stagflation, and you can’t go wrong by being too ready for it. Weimar-esque inflation? Seems possible, of course, but I think it’s unlikely. I think what you’ll see is a drifting towards the economic situation we saw in the Carter years…maybe not a full-Carter economy, but certainly leaning towards it.

If I were a fixed-income type, living off pensions and that sort of thing, I’d probably very slowly start moving what I could towards inflation-resistant forms like metals while trying not to dip into principal to deeply. If reported inflation starts ticking up consistently I might want to think about accelerating things a bit. But thats me. You do you, man.

Anyway.. investments /= wealth preservation. The two are different enough that they call for different strategies and ways of thinking. Don’t conflate the two. Thats my inflation-adjusted $.02 worth.

ETA: If you want a dramatized but rather plausible (IMHO) of how inflation upsets your apple cart, pick up a copy of this book.