Tag Archives: pandemic

Article – Ranks of Absent U.S. Food Inspectors Swell on Virus, Union Says

Posted on by
Well, normally I take anything a union says with a big grain of salt. Add in another heaping tablespoon for it coming from Bloomberg. But…it makes sense.
As I pointed out to someone in comments earlier, most people just looked at the immediate consequences of this pandemic (“I might get sick”) and many fewer looked at the downstream consequences (“The guy who fixes my car might get sick and I need to have work done on it.”, “The guy who delivers the food to the market might call in sick”, “I may not be able to schedule that root canal in two weeks”, etc.)
Meat inspectors? Sure. Probably the same for vehicle inspectors, air safety inspectors, engineering inspectors, etc. (Which might underscore that perhaps we have too many inspections required in our everyday lives.) Occupancy permit for your new addition on your house? City inspector isn’t coming out. Vehicle inspection so you can renew your tags? Most garages are at half staff and have huge waiting lists. You get the idea.
All of this, though, is completely predictable if you think far enough out. What is it that you cannot do yourself and will bottleneck things if the person who does it is unavailable? Thats the question. The answer, of course, is to have a workaround in place…could be stockpiled materials, alternate vendors, DIY, or a Plan B to make do until later.
And, maybe, it’s a good idea to make sure the freezer is topped off. Just in case.

Article- Five threats to US food supply chains

Posted on by

The coronavirus pandemic has upended food supply chains, led to closures of meat producing plants and left Americans with the unsettling experience of seeing empty shelves at supermarkets.

Coupled with the run on toilet paper that led to severe shortages, recent events are leading Americans to wonder if the nation’s food supply is secure.

Experts say that by and large, Americans don’t need to worry about food running out, but that does not mean all food will be readily available.

I’m seeing more and more articles like this pop up lately. The cynic in me says it’s simply the media looking for a new equine to flog. The conspiracy buff in me says it’s TPTB warming us up to the idea of Soviet-style grocery shortages. Regardless, I post the link here for your own scrutiny.

The article does make some sense about the threats to the food chain. For you TL;DR types, here they are:

  • Virus outbreaks at food plants
  • Agricultural reliance on guest workers
  • Supply chain mismatches
  • Increased food insecurity (Which really has nothing to do with the food chain)
  • Crunch on delivery capacity

The first one, virus outbreaks at food plants, are already happening as several meat processing plants have had to dial back. The rest…we shall see.

But despite all this, for now, my local supermarkets seem to be puttering along just fine. Of course, everything works fine right up until the point it doesn’t. Is this the calm before the storm of empty shelves? I have no idea. But… you don’t wait for a drought to dig a well, so if you’ve got some gaps in your pantry now might be a reasonable time to get ’em plugged.

 

Article – Food Rationing Is New Reality for Buyers Once Spoiled for Choice

Posted on by

(Bloomberg) — At a Publix store in St. Petersburg, Florida, handmade signs limit customers to two packages of beef, pork and Italian sausage. In Toronto, shoppers at a west end Loblaws can’t buy more than two dozen eggs and two gallons of milk.

Spoiled for choice before the pandemic, North American shoppers are finding they can’t get everything they want as grocery stores ration in-demand items to safeguard supplies.

While the panic that swept through supermarkets in the first weeks of the coronavirus lockdowns has eased, people are still filling fridges and pantries with stay-at-home staples from flour and yeast to pasta sauce and meat.

The strong demand comes at a time of supply disruptions as food makers adapt to dramatic shifts in buying patterns and some processing plants close as workers fall ill. As a result, stores are restricting purchases to prevent items from vanishing from shelves. For shoppers, that can be unnerving.

Wait..so there is a global crisis that may cause disruption in the availability of some food products? Who couuld have possibly predicted such things? Well, pretty much anyone with half a brain, really.

Hazlitt said that economics was not about just looking at a particular action, but rather at the consequences of that action, for all groups, further downstream. It seems like many people figured that out, on a subconscious level mostly, as people wet out and started buying huge quantities of goods for reasons they couldn’t really articulate.

Which reminds me, the Current Situation is showing what people (as a group) are truly made of. For all their ”we are in this together” nonsense, even the most obnoxious NPR-listening, Volvo-driving, limousine-liberal is out there buying up  more than her ‘fair share’ of goods. Why? Because when it really comes down to survival we put our ‘tribe’ first. That tribe can be your family, your religion, your race, your class, your region, whatever…but we all have one. For 99.9% of us it’s our families.

Food rationing? Maybe, but not as it really is… ‘food rationing’ is not settling for store-brand Mac&Cheese because the Trader Joe Organic version was sold out. That’s not rationing. Rationing is getting something that is probably not what you want, not in the quantity you want, and not in the quality you want…and you’re grateful to have it.

Gun Jesus has a nice four-part series on food rationing in Britain during WW2. It’s interesting to see what you would have had to work with.

More Observations

Posted on by

I dunno about you, but so far, in this slow-moving apocalypse, I have yet to need to shoot anything or anyone in a directly-related-to-the-pandemic situation. In fact, amongst all the myriad items I (and probably you) put back against that uncertain future, virtually none have gotten taken out of their storage containers. Its starting to look like that for 90% of most disasters you can sum up your preps into two different items – a shoebox full of cash, and some food.

Gasoline? Not only is it still available it is at a markedly lower price than when this whole thing started. How many disasters do you see that make the price of a staple commodity go down?

Food? It’s been about a month since this thing really blew up and most of the shelves at my local grocery are back to normal..including TP and rice. It looks like there’s about a four-week lag for the supply and distribution change to catch up.

Guns and ammo? Yeah, they’ve been hit hard over at the gun shops. But, broadly speaking, I haven’t heard of anyone getting into a shootout with starving cannibal armies yet. In more rural environs, with overstretched departments, there might be some tweakers who are waiting for an opportunity to do some home invasions at remote properties but so far…nothing I’ve heard.

Water? I’ve not heard of anyone having problems with their water supplies.

I’m almost tempted to say that your basic Kung Flu survival needs can be met with a well-stocked freezer and a big-ass box of cash. (And, really, that box of cash is often the secret sauce for most disasters.)

Honestly, I could not have imagined such a global-scale disaster or event that still has all the utilities running as normal and seems so…orderly? Neat? Calm?

To be fair, I’m only going off my own experience here in a Montana city (or town, I suppose, if a population of less than 100,000 counts as a city).

But, thus far, it looks like the best preps have been to have money in the bank (or gun safe).

Key words there, though: thus far. Yeah, no shootouts with opportunistic looters…so far. No around-the-block lines for ground beef…so far. No fistfights at the pumps as cars line up for gas in a blocks-long queue… so far.

And its because of ‘so far’ that we keep the freeze drieds, stabilized fuel, Glocks and ammo, etc, etc.

But, I suspect one of the biggest takeaways from this episode, other than the obvious ‘wash your hands, dammit’ is that having money in the bank or on hand alleviates a large part of the headaches involved in a disaster.

Those Five Recession-Proof Businesses vs The Plague

Posted on by

I’ve mentioned that this Current Situation is an excellent chance to observe and learn. This is a dress rehearsal for whatever bigger things come down the pike next. If you’ve been watching the news lately, which is rather tough to avoid, we’ve been told that unemployment is rocketing through the roof as people are laid of, furloughed, fired, downsized, or otherwise off the payroll. Makes sense…if a business is closed then there’s no way to pay the employees.

But…some people are not only still getting paid, they’re getting paid more. They are in a position that allows them to continue to have employment in this situation. Let’s examine that.

I read somewhere that people who made it through the tumult of World War Two noted that no matter how bad the situation in the civilian population, certain trades or businesses were able to stay afloat. Broadly, there were five: food, medical, sex, weapons, and entertainment. If you were in a business that was in one of these categories, the odds were better in your favor during recessions, depressions, etc. With various states on lockdowns, people holding onto their money (if they’re smart), and social distancing the order of the day…who is still in business?

Well, the gun and ammo businesses are doing well. Weapons always make people feel, right or wrong, that they have some control over their lives. If you’re in the ammo business or the gun business right now, and you have some inventory, you’re probably doing pretty well. So…thats 1/5th that seems accurate.

Grocers are always going to see people buying from them. Folks have to eat. And, again, as long as they have inventory there will be no supermarket that has sales flatline. Pandemic or no, people wanna eat. (Also folding booze and smokes into this group.) 2/5ths.

Nurses and doctors are probably not short of work right now unless youre something a little more pedestrian and a lot less ER. For example, I don’t think there’s a lot of dentists or podiatrists doing business right now. But you’re an ER, ICU, or flight nurse? Bet you’re getting all the work you want. So, yeah, 3/5ths.

Entertainment? Thats tricky. Mass gatherings are kinda frowned upon right now..concerts, movies, etc, are not doing well. Even if your venue isn’t closed down by .gov edict, no one wants to sit elbow-to-elbow with coughing strangers. So, no, this fifth doesn’t work in this situation.

Sex? Well, with everyone staying at home there’s a rise (ahem) in online porn, toy purchases, cam shows, etc, etc. And, I suppose that for those who make house calls…there might be a consistent demand. 4/5ths.

So out of those five businesses, it looks like four of them will weather this pandemic. Others I’ve noticed: the local gold/silver shop is doing crazy business.

If you work for government, you’re probably also somewhat bulletproof in all this. Certainly if youre a cop or fireman you can expect to keep working.

All in all, this is an interesting subject to watch play out in the real world. If you’re looking for a career or sideline to give you an extra income in all sorts of situations, you might want to look around your neighorhood and see who is open, and how much business theyre doing. If they can make money during a crisis like this, then perhaps its a business worth looking into.

Link – NJ Gov. Orders State Police To Commandeer Needed Medical Supplies

Posted on by

So, if I understand this correctly, organizations that do not have the tremendous purchasing power or the seemingly deep pockets of state government managed to acquire supplies and the state, rather than actually buying those supplies themselves previously, are going to simply seize them. I mean…it’s not like the state had resources and buying power to purchase these things months or years ago, right? Right?

 

TRENTON, N.J. (CBSNewYork) – Gov. Phil Murphy has given New Jersey State Police orders to take N95 masks, ventilators and other personal protective equipment that health care facilities need in their race to slow the spread of coronavirus.

“While we look forward to these facilities cooperating with us and providing this equipment as needed, this order gives (police) the express authority to requisition it for distribution to our acute care hospitals and other healthcare facilities,” said Murphy in his daily COVID-19 briefing. “And needless to say, they badly need the equipment.”

This is why the first rule of Prep Club is……….

 

The uniquely American perspective

Posted on by

Can we agree that, as far as the US is concerned, quarantines just don’t work? I’m not an epidemiologist, health professional, or anything like that … what I am is someone who comments on what I observe.  What I observe is that quarantines may work in other countries but I don’t think they’ll work here.

China implemented quarantines and they seem (if you can believe the communists) to have worked. But…China is a nation full of people who are quite used to saying ‘how high’ when the .gov tells them to jump. Many European countries are similar…people are used to a supremacy of .gov and believe that .gov is for ‘the greater good’. Thus, when ‘gov declares a crisis and says ‘do this’, the population usually toes the line.

And then you get the US… a nation whose entire national identity is based on BFYTW. Lots of folks already distrust .gov, no matter who is in office. And when they tell you to do something, our natural inclination is, often, to say “Yeah, no.”

So when .gov tells you, with a straight face and the wagging finger of seriousness, that you ‘must’ stay at home, avoid other people, not go to work, and generally be under house arrest…well, a lot of people are going to say ‘Yeah, screw that..I’m going to WalMart’. Some people say this is socially irresponsible and these people are selfish clowns who should be beaten with cluesticks until they stop putting others at risk….and theres some who say that individual freedom includes the freedom to make bad choices. (Although usually that argument doesn’t include those bad choices affecting anyone else except the individual in question.) But no matter which side you’re on (if there is a such thing as sides in this) I think it’s pretty obvious that quarantines won’t work in this country the way they do in others.

But…that’s why quarantines won’t work in the US. Short version: we are too individualistic to do what .gov tells us to do, and our .gov is quite reluctant to go to the measures that other countries do. The Chinese physically rounded up people off the street. The Italians have Carabinieri at checkpoints. The Germans…well…I don’t know what the Germans have but it’s probably really well-engineered and expensive…maybe some sort of virus-targetting laser robot thing. But the US is not the kind of country (yet) that rolls out nationwide roadblocks and military patrols to stuff coughing pedestrians into the back of unamarked vans for their own protection.

There are plenty of Americans who are obeying the .gov’s requests to stay at home. But those people aren’t motivated by patriotic altruism and obedience, they do it out of self-preservation because theyre in the target demographic for this thing. The young and dumb are out doing the same things as always because youth. And a quarantine is, I suspect like virginity…no grey areas. You either have a quarantine or you don’t. At this time, we don’t. And I don’t think we will, given the lack resolve to step into the jackboots of ugly-times-call-for-ugly-measures.

I am not a fan of big .gov. I’m rather pleased at the seeming impotence of .gov in terms of establishing the kind of control that other countries are exhibiting. Why? Because once you give a power to ‘gov, they virtually never relinquish it and they always find a way to use it. It’s a very personal choice, but I would rather take my chances at keeping my distance from other people, staying home as much as possible, and keeping outside trips to a minimum, by my own choice, and have a higher risk of catching this thing than have a lower chance of catching it in exchange for having guys with guns and uniforms driving around my neighborhood at night spotlighting houses looking for curfew violators.

But, it’s for those reasons that I dont think, barring some seriously unprecedented draconian responses by .gov, that quarantines will work here as well as they have elsewhere.

Grid up disasters

Posted on by

So far ( and that’s really a key modifier here) this kung flu thing is turning out to be, for the overwhelming majority, a ‘grid up’ scenario.

I don’t know about you but for me most of my wargaming and ‘possible scenarios’ against which I prepare involve a ‘grid down’ scenario. That’s the one where critical utility services are unavailable or strictly curtailed – no water, no electricity, no natural gas, that sort of thing. “The big one” earthquake? Grid down. Tornado? Grid down? Killer ice storm? Grid down. The kung flu is turning out (thus far) to be a ‘grid up’ scenario which, while not something I have discounted, was certainly not what I was anticipating.

Obviously, though, that ‘grid up’ thing can become ‘grid down’ in a hurry. All it takes is a bunch of self-quarantining linemen, power plant operators, electrical engineers, etc., staying home for the delivery systems to get stretched thin. I would guess that if you’re in a place that gets it’s power from nuclear plants the number of easily-replaced personnel running those things is pretty thin.

What’s that mean to me? Well, first of all, and I’m not sure this is a negative, it makes it a bit harder to interpret the current situation as a disaster. I mean, if we’re honest, when we were stocking away freeze drieds and tucking away cans of ammo we envisioned The Big Crisis as one where we would be in the dark and cold, using candles and kerosene lamps, cooking over our grills and campstoves, and heating water in big pots over campfires. Right now? I turn the handle marked “H” on my sink and hot water comes out. I flip on the lightswitch and my room lights up. I press a button on the wall and my house gets warmer. It’s a bit hard to not have a little mental disconnect.

Here’s an example of what I mean – I’m assuming many of you watch The Walking Dead, and if you don’t I am certain you at least know the premise. For the first few seasons our heroes (such as they are) lived in abandoned buildings, campsites, etc, with no running water, electricity, etc, etc. It was a very close to the edge existence. Later in the show they find a haven with running water and electricity….a sense of normalcy develops, despite the fact the zombies are just outside the walls.  My point being that while intellectually I know this is a very serious time, the relative lack of obvious impact on my day-to-day is making it hard to feel like it’s as big a deal as it is.

One thing I had not considered, at all, was the possibility that in a ‘grid up’ crisis those grid up utilities could be manipulated by others to force a control on me. For example, in places that have ordered ‘non essential’ businesses to close, municipalities are threatening to turn off utility services to businesses that don’t comply. That’s only a step or two away from turning off utilities to neighborhoods to force them to evacuate to quarantine locations or to exact some other sort of behavioral change. I never thought of that, had you?

The “Hmm-I-Never-Considered-That” moments are starting to come a bit faster these days. When all of this blows over (or, at least, diminishes a bit) there’s going to be some frenzied activity in the blogosphere as people recount what they should have done and will do differently ‘next time’.

Your papers, please.

Posted on by

So it appears that the fine folks running the state of Rhode Island have decided to pull over cars with NY plates and go house-to-house searching for NY residents. No word if they have boxcars waiting at the railyard for any New Yorkers they find.

I can’t recall ever hearing of such actions happening previously. And I can’t imagine the joy of a traffic stop where every. single. person. you pull over is from NY and you have to give them bad news. If you thought New Yorkers were jerks to each other, this will be a whole new level.

But.. this is one of dozens of things that I’m betting many of us never thought about in regards to our ideas about how to prepare for the end of the world. I suppose the savvy survivalist might pull the plates off of abandoned out-of-state cars and keep them handy for this sort of event. Certainly, my plans never included leaving the great state of Montana (we have plenty of room to social distance) so it never occurred to me that ID, WY, ND, and SD, might have folks at their borders saying ‘Yankee Montanan Go Home’. This region is also rather porous in terms of logging roads crisscrossing the hills…you might very well be able to cross into other states without ever having to have your tires hit the pavement.

On the other hand, there is a nationwide groupthink that places like MT and ID are ‘safe havens’ and people with resources are making open-ended vacations to our sleepy little region of the country. It will not end well.

I suppose that as we try to take in lessons from this whole pandemic thing, one of them will be wargaming the possibility of statewide enforced-at-the-border ‘quarantines’. Who knew? But thats really the biggest takeaway from this pandemic experience – the real-world stress-testing of our various preparations/systems/supplies/networks. Certainly, I am finding things that I need to do differently. I’ve no doubt you are as well. But, honestly, the notion of states dropping into a Balkanization mode never occurred to me. Race riots? Sure. Class warfare? Possible. State-on-state violence? Never occurred to me. Although there is a precedence about a hundred and sixty years ago with the War Of Southern Overconfidence..

I suspect in an all-out state-.gov-sponsored shooting war the guys in NY would come out on top. The NYPD alone is something like 40,000 armed guys. Factor in all the other armed city/state agencies and you’d probably be around 100,000 troops. To put that in perspective, Rhode Islands largest city is the capital, Providence, with a population of less than 180,000. Using the ratio of officers:population, NYC’s 40,000 cops for 8,000,000 people is one cop per 200 people. If Providence has that same ratio, that means their department is about 900 men. Being outgunned almost 40:1 would be rather entertaining to watch.

But, obviously that ain’t gonna happen. What will happen, no doubt, is that someone in Rhode Island is going to realize that their grocery stores, gas stations, and businesses get a lot of stuff delivered ‘just in time’ from NY and maybe it might be a good idea to consider ‘message delivered’ and rescind their order.

In survivalist fiction there is almost always that scene where some town or county establishes roadblocks ‘for protection’ to keep the non-residents out. I find it fascinating that it’s happening in real life. I guess its only a few weeks until this: