Scientia potentia est

Man, it’s hard not to read the news without incurring a a feeling of dread. No doubt someone in the comments will say something like “I don’t even watch the news anymore”, which in my opinion is like saying “I don’t keep my eyes open when I’m driving”. Sure, the news is almost uniformly gloomy, and rather depressing, but…so what? The whole point of news is to let you know about things that might impact you in a big way. Yeah, I feel a little helpless and hopeless reading the news, but I read it every single morning because, as a survivalist, I need every advantage I can get and knowing whats going on around me and around the world, even if its gloomy, is information that can give me an advantage.

Personally, while I think that we can objectively agree that the news is pretty often bad, my attitude is made better by knowing that once I know what the problem is, I can prepare against it. Still, it can be a bit of a downer to read the depressing news day after day.

The most…agitating…things in the news these days? The plethora of articles, seemingly at random, about ‘assault weapons’. It seems like every news outlet has a bunch of articles about an assault weapons ban. Were I the suspicious type, I’d say its part of a scheme to ‘normalize’ the idea….”Ban assault weapons? Why, everyone knows thats a good idea!” they’ll say…because it’s all theyve been fed as of late.

The other depressing news? With inflation running at levels unheard of since the days of eight-track, the current administration is wanting to spend more money it doesn’t have. You have to admire the optimism, if not the common sense, of the person who doubles down on a bad hand.

Resilience is the name of the game. And to be resilient against something you need to know what that something is. So, for me, yeah the news is a drag but so is being caught unprepared.

And, by the way, ingest news intelligently….remember, there’s three sides to every story: yours, theirs, and the truth (or facts). Don’t get all your news from just one (or even two or three) sources. These days forewarned really can wind up being forearmed.

Memento mori

NOTE: Black Friday Friday Of Color sales are starting early. Find a good one? A discount code? Flash deal? Put it in comments.

Went to the movies last night. Bought a ticket and noticed a price discrepancy from the listed price and what I was charged. I asked the high-school-age drone behind the counter what was up. His reply…”Senior discount.”

Doubleyew. Tee. Eff.?????

Look, I admit my hair has got more salt than pepper than it did a few years ago, but I am nowhere..nowhere….near ‘senior discount’ age. Part of me was offended and part of me wondered what else I could get away with.

But…I can’t deny that age comes on apace. Thirty-year freeze drieds are actually coming up on their ‘Best By’ dates, guns that were cheap and plentiful when I bough them are now collectors items, naps have a lot more appeal than they used to, and I spend a goodly amount of time waiting for the Advil to kick in. Apparently, somewhere, I got old.

I’m not stupid enough to think I’ll live forever. And, of course, I know that eventually it comes for us all. But, man, it sucks to be reminded of it.

But, reminded I was…and last month I updated my will. Because, as it turns out, part of getting old means acquiring a lot of stuff. Houses, land, gold, money, guns, vehicles, etc, etc. And I will set it all on fire before I let it fall into the hands of the state. In fact, sometimes I feel I should have some sort of fail-deadly switch to implode the place, wipe the accounts, purge the drives, and that sort of thing.

But, I did the next best thing and paid way too much to an attorney to write up some ‘final wishes’. It was all pretty straightforward. There’s only a small handful of people I want to leave stuff to and if for some reason they are unaccepting or unable to receive it, then it goes to the charity of my choice.

As I’ve mentioned before, if I go to my death without ever having had to use any of the ammo, freeze drieds, body armour, kerosene, chest seals, or parachute flares….well, I’ll consider that a victory.

But, realistically, and statistically, I’ve got about another 25 years left on the clock. Sure, I could have an aneurysm tomorrow, or get hit by a bus next week, but so far it’s been a somewhat quiet (in terms of life threatening events) existence these last few years.

But…senior discount. That still rubs me the wrong way.

Staying focused

In Heinlein’s “Starship Troopers” one of the characters muses how civilians think things are ‘at peace’ because no one they know is involved in the fighting. As a military man, the character knows that there’s never really ‘peace’..there’s always a fight going on somewhere…it’s just that you don’t know about it, so you think everything is peaceful.

Right now, in my world, there is food in the freezer, the lights come on, the water flows, there’s money in the bank, clothes on my back, and gas in the tank. All must be right in the world, yes? Of course not. There are people in hurricane-ravaged areas eating MRE’s and crapping in portapotties, there are people overseas working to keep gas prices high, there’s morons in Washington blindly groping around for ‘mandates’, and there is always some idiot somewhere who is off his meds and on his way to a WalMart. So, yeah, it’s quiet in my immediate vicinity but does that mean it’s quiet everywhere else? Heck no.

So…gotta fight that complacency. Be conscious of the fact (and it is a fact, m’friends) that it can all change Just. Like. That. <snaps fingers> Yeah, its a nice day today and the sun is out….so what? You know life isn’t always gonna be like that. Go out and do something that you’ll thank yourself for later.

 

Whats left?

That’s a trick question because, realistically and literally, there is always one more thing that a person can do to increase their resilience. You’re never really “done”…you’re simply at a more prepared stage than you were previously. Admittedly, there is a point where you’re just gilding the lilly but I don’t think I’m quite there yet.

But, after having been doing this for a couple decades what could possibly be left to accomplish? Well, the absolute biggest is the crowning jewel of any survivalist’s career – the BOL. That sweet little innocent-looking cabin in the middle of nowhere that is more heavily fortified, stocked, and hardened than Cheyenne Mountain. That one is going to take some serious planning and a metric buttload of cash.

Other than that rather expensive to-do list item, I’m fairly well set on most things. I mean, if there’s anything I think I really truly need at this point I can just buy it. I still need to get a nice radio setup for keeping tabs on the world, and it would be nice to have a larger stash of precious metals, but other than that I think I’m pretty set on things. I could always upgrade and increase the amounts of some things…food, ammo, cash, etc., but they’re at levels right now that I’m comfortable with and I’d rather funnel my resources into getting that nice chunk of Middle O’ Nowhere.

No one is every ‘fully prepared’, in my opinion. However, I’m satisfied enough with what I have now that, while I recognize there’s always room to add more depth to the stockpiles, I have no problem focusing resources into other projects.

It hasn’t always been this way, though. I remember when every $25 can of freeze drieds, and every $150 SKS, was a struggle to justify to my limited budget. But, I’ve hit the point in my life where I can drop a few hundred bucks here and there every so often for things that I want. Didn’t always be like that, though…..there were some pretty tight times back there.

Overall, though…I have absolutely no regrets about spending what I’ve spent over the years. I have literally thousands of dollars of freeze drieds and if I never wind up needing them I will still consider it money well spent. Like insurance, it gives me peace of mind and reduces risk. That has a value.

I also have no regrets because I see where the social zeitgeist is going and I’m pleased to say that I can sit back and watch everyone else scramble for freeze drieds, gas cans, ammo, and other gear. Those decades of picking up gear here and there have paid off in that I don’t have to deal with the scarcity and pricing issues that the Johnny-come-latelies have to face.

If you’ve been a survivalist for more than a few years, I trust that you are in a similar position. And if you’re new to the scene..well…don’t be discouraged.

Augason at Winco II

One of the nice things about blogging for twenty years is that I can go back and check details that would otherwise be lost in time.

The Augason storage food I mentioned yesterday? The price on the potato shreds is the same as it was last year. Interestingly, though, the butter powder is $2.50 cheaper than it was last year.

Storage food is insurance. Certainly it’s a nice hedge against the day the zombies arrive, Xenu comes back, the Chinese invade, the race war starts,  and the comet hits. But it’s also a comfort against job loss, economic troubles, and supply issues. In general, like all insurance, one of it’s great benefits is the peace of mind it offers.

We seldom see hunger in this country to the point that exists in other countries. (We’re the only country with obese poor people, so you know food isn’t exactly a problem for us.) But while as a nation we virtually never experience hunger, we can (and do) as individuals…we suffer individual setbacks like job losses, crippling injuries, etc. And while there may be miles of aisles of food at the Walmart, there may be none to be had by you. So….yes, a form of insurance.

Preaching to the choir, I know, but let’s be real….too many people emphasize the sexy gun stuff and under-emphasize the unsexy things like food. But your gonna eat a lot more often than you’re going to shoot things in most crises. So…yeah, lay back some .223 but spend at least as much in time, effort, and money on food as well.

 

Answering an email

This came in email today;

I was wondering how you came to decide on your quota/budget/allocations you do for things like gold, silver, ammo, IRA’s, cash, storage food etc.  You just figure a percentage of income to each category or?  Was wondering if you did some research to arrive at your system or perhaps you have tweaked it over the years?
So, really, a couple questions there…how do I decide on quotas, budget, and allocations.
Well, there’s a ‘baseline’ level.. I want to have X amount of food on-hand. I want X amount of money in the bank. I want X amount of silver set aside. That process is pretty much a “sit and think, then guess” sort of affair. Food? I’d like at least a years worth, right? Okay, so think about what I like to eat and how much a years worth of it looks like. There’s your quota, or total. Same for everything else. Establish a baseline amount and then add to it.
Example: I wanted the ‘Dave Ramsey’ style emergency fund. Started with $1000 in the bank. Ok, that covers most small immediate emergencies. Now what? Well, I’d like to have $5k by the end of this year, $10k by next year, $15k the year after that, and I’ll call it ‘fully funded’ when its at $20k. Alright, that looks like $416 a month to put away for emergencies. So..I do that. Extra money comes in, I put it towards that, which reduces the amount I need to come up with each month. If I get a windfall..say $2000…and finish my goal for the year early, great…now I can use the resources that would have gone towards that for other things.
Budgeting is easy….You know youre going to make, say, $3000 this month. Spend it all on paper at the beginning of the month. $1000 rent, $400 food, $300 utilities, etc, etc. until you’ve spent all $3000 on paper. Thats your budget. Every greenback has an assignment or mission. There shouldnt be any money that doesnt have a task assigned to it…even if that task is just ‘fun’ or ‘preps’ or ‘hookers-n-blow’.
Allocations are very haphazard. Once I write out my budget, I know I’ll  have, say, $375 available to me each month for prep-related stuff. Ok…15% to silver, 15% to gold, 40% to food, 15% to gun stuff, 15% to other gear. Its arbitrary but thats the numbers I choose…you can choose whatever you want….50/50 guns and food. Or 20/80 food and gold. Only you know what your goals are. Unexpected windfall? It gets spent to the same allocation.
My budgeting and allocations are based on a yearly budget. If I want to have $5k in the emergency fund by the end of this year, and I get that $5k in the bank by September. Do I put those resources to next years emergency fund budget and get an early start on getting next year done? Not usually. I treat each year on its own. If I finish early for this year, then I work on one of the other goals for this year.
I can’t tell you what to do, I can only tell you what works for me. But if you want my suggestion, I’d tell you exactly how I do/did things:
1) Establish a baseline amount of the item you want. It could be a period’s worth of food, a dollar value of cash, a weight of silver/gold, a quantity of ammo. Whatever. Just get a number to start shooting for as a goal.
2) Figure how much you need to do of that thing each month to get to the end of your yearly goal. X ounces each month, X dollars each month, X gallons each month…whatever.
3) If those amounts are do-able, do them. Follow your plan as religiously as possible. If the amounts aren’t do-able, revise your end-of-year goal so that the monthly contributions are do-able.
4) Set the goals for several years out. I go two years out past the current one. Life happens, you may not meet your goal in a particular year…carry the unfinished parts through the next one and try harder.
5) Decide what happens when your goal is met. I met my emergency fund goal a while back. Do I stop contributing? I could…I met my goal, the amount in the bank is good enough to cover 99% of any emergency. But…you can’t have too much money, so my modest goal is to increase it by 10% every year. An easy enough goal. Some things, like certain guns for instance, when I hit my goal I’m done. Divert the resources elsewhere. Only you can decide what items are ‘enough is enough’ and what items are ‘at desired level, now just maintaining and slightly growing’.
Thats really it. Just open a spreadsheet, make a list, and start budgeting. Once you’ve got your budget, You’ll know how much you can spend on a particular need. Stick tot he plan, stick to the budget. Sometimes you gotta go off-script, but if you can stay on the plan, stay on the budget, it makes life a lot easier.

Thoughts on the winters heating issues

So, it seems like not much has changed lately….inflation? Check. Russia doing Russia things because theyre Russia? Check. Dementia-addled President? Check. Gas still being insane? Check.

This is not the New Normal I was promised.

But…it is what it is, as the kids say. Now that July is here it is time to start thinking about fall and winter. If inflation, ‘supply chain issues’, and fuel prices don’t stop what they are currently doing, I can see this being an uncomfortably cold winter for many folks. Might be a lot of people turning the thermostats down a bit lower than they might do otherwise.

I always keep a cold house in the winter, so it’s no big deal to me. I usually keep the thermostat around 63-65 in the winter. But if you’re one of those people that needs 72 degrees all the time….well… this winter might be the one where youre eyes jump out of your skull likein a Tom-n-Jerry cartoon when you see your heating bill.

Years ago I signed up for ‘budget billing’ with my utility company. Basically, they take the entire previous years worth of utility charges, add them up, divide by twelve, and the result is what they bill you for each month regardless of your usage. At the end of the year you either owe them or you have a credit built up with them. Advantage? Predictable payments every month. In the summer, my heating bill is only a few bucks but in the winter it can be around $150+ per month. (Natural gas, in case youre curious.) But by the time the cold weather rolls around I’ve usually built up enough padding over the summer that the higher winter bills are mitigated by the credits from ‘overpaying’ over the summer. From a monthly budget standpoint, this is the way.

Given the proven adage of there beingno problem that can’t be made worse by having .gov get involved, I can see the Biden people ‘doing something’ to ‘keep Americans warm’ this winter. Tax credits? Price controls? Moratoriums on service disconnections for unpaid bills? Dare I say it….nationalization? Who knows? But what I do know is that now is the time to be making plans for bizarre inflation-adjusted, scarcity-affected heating costs this winter….not five minute after the mercury dips into freezing.

Get the window insulation, weather stripping, electric space  heaters, propane/kero heaters now because a) theyre only going to be more expensive in the fall and b) they won’t be available in the fall. Or, easier and less work, start socking away money now to be ready to pay for the increased heating costs that are virtually guaranteed to be coming this winter.

 

“Past performance is no guarantee of future results”

If you go hiking in Texas and then go hiking in Colorado, the environment must be exactly the same, right? I mean..you hike in Texas, you hike in Colorado…hiking is the same everywhere, right?

Darwin: No.

Seems pretty stupid on its face, but here it is:

“These hikers said they did not understand why it was so cold and rainy in Colorado, because it has been ‘so hot in Texas’ where they hike all the time,” rescuers said.

Mother Nature has no no sense of humour about these things. Look, it’s 90 degrees out this weekend and even though sitting in my truck is like being in an oven I still carry a heavy coat, rain poncho, sleeping bag, and other cold/wet weather gear in my truckbox….year-round.

But, interestingly, there is a bit of a cautionary tale and lesson here: just because something went one way when you experienced it does not necessarily mean that a similar experience will beget similar results. Hiking in Colorado doesn’t mean you will have the same experience as hiking in Texas…so plan accordingly. The lesson there is that just because you survived [name of experience] last time doesn’t mean that you will this time.

Made it through the inflationary period of the late 1970’s? And its gas shortages? That doesn’t mean that you’ll weather the current one. The things you did to mitigate negative outcomes that time may not work as well this time. As the guys at the brokerages say – “Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Don’t get complacent and think that just because you made it through the last blackout, shortage, pandemic, hurricane, etc. that you will therefore make it though the next one by doing the same thing.

The military has that saying about how we’re always planning to fight the last war. The implication being that we assume the next one will be like the last one and therefore whatver we learned from the last one will stand us in good stead on the next one. Sometimes that’s true. But survivalism isn’t about trusting to ‘Usually’ and ‘sometimes’.

Signs of the times

Drove up to Lowe’s the other day but they were closed for the Easter holiday. Ok, no big deal. What was terribly interesting though was that the closing up process including getting on a forklift and stacking pallets of heavy materials about nine feet high in front of the doors and loading entrances. Clearly, they are not taking chances on crash-n-snatch robberies. I understand this sort of thing is SOP in more urban locations, but its the first time I’ve seen that sort of thing out here.

Interestingly, the CostCo across the street from Lowe’s also appears to be…hardening…itself. Their remodel included moving the main entrance to the facility and that main entrance is now ‘picket fenced’ with concrete bollards every six feet or so to, presumably, prevent someone from crashing the place in a vehicle, looting, and scooting.

Once, when the Hells Angels were in town many years ago, I actually recall CostCo having a shotgun-toting guard at the front entrance. Never saw that again until about a year or so ago in the panic phase of the Wuhan Flu epidemic.

Heinlein said that one of the signs of a sick society, one that was on the decline, was the breakdown of civility and manners. I look around at the balkanization, increasing crime rates, the apologists trying to justify it, the social zeitgeist, and I am certain that I am not “better off than I was four years ago”, to borrow from Reagan…at least not socially.

I can’t say if it will ever get better but I can feel fairly certain that it will continue, if not get worse. All I can do is take measures to protect myself and my interests. I can’t change the course we are on, and I probably don’t want to. Sometimes to make an omelette, you’ve gotta break a few legs. Perhaps if this decline hits enough people hard enough they’ll shake off their indifference and step up to the plate….change laws, change politicians, change direction. Not holding my breath, but you never know.

Tribe recognizes tribe

We’ve all heard people in the preparedness community ask this particular question: “How do I meet like-minded people?”

As I’ve said before – if you have an interest and are active in a field that appeals to surivivalists (guns, backpacking, military/LE, radio, ‘primitive’ camping, being a Mormon, etc.) you probably already know several survivalists and just aren’t aware of it. But, may times you discover, in a casual conversation, that the person you are engaging with is on the same wavelength. Todays example comes form me standing at the deli counter picking up some chicken strips for lunch. The kid behind the counter takes my order….

Him: Three chicken strips today?
Me: Yeah, thanks. How are you doin’ today?
Him:I saw today wheat is up 33%.
Me: Hmm. Well, it’s gonna get worse before it gets better.
Him:Yeah. I’m trying to put some stuff back.
Me:Yeah, me too. I just cleaned out two cases of canning lids from aisle 6.
Him: Me and my brother can. We’ve been doing a lot of canning lately. I need to get water, though.

And we chit chat for another minute about the topic of socking away food against inflationary increases and filling up propane tanks this weekend.

Thats how it happens. No secret handshakes, no coded ‘Want to meet’ ads in Craigslist, no Friday night meetup at the VFW. It happens organically all the time…just keep your ears and eyes open. Tribe recognizes tribe.