Year in review

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The low hanging fruit of the blogging world is the reviewing the previous year and speculating on the upcoming year. Not being proud, here we go….

2020. Holy Drokk, where to start? From a survivalist standpoint is was a fairly validating year. I didn’t wind up needing to use any of the stored food or supplies. Even toilet paper needs were met handily just by the ‘on hand’ supply that exists outside of the stored stuff. But, the situation did give me the impetus to double-down on a lot of stuff. Most notably, the Preponomicon was thoroughly examined, revised, reviewed, and adhered to. While I was doing quite well on most things, I took this time to really polish off a few glaring weak spots and beef up what I already had.

Gunwise, it was a freakin’ Mardi Gras. If I told you what I spent on guns and magazines this year you would be aghast. But…I did what I believed was necessary for the continued safety and security of my future self. So..I regret nothing.

Financially, there was a little bit of a hiccup in March when things really hit the fan in terms of the Wuhan Flu becoming A Big Deal. I had to dip into cash reserves a tiny bit but then the income stream resumed it’s normal flow and I made up for it. In fact, 2020, despite my outrageous purchases, turned out to be a good year in terms of making progress on finances.

There were, of course, some down moments. Most notably the election. Because I had my doubts about a Trump re-election, I decided early in the year to get a start on going heavy on Uncertain Goods. Unfortunately, I was not the only one and between political maneuvering, race riots, a pandemic, and gasping economy, there were plenty of moments where things I wanted were either unavailable or grossly overpriced. However, I managed to get it all done with a bit of time to spare. Yay me.

All in all, 2020 was actually…and I hate to say this because it makes me sound like a colossal jerk…a really good year for me. I got a lot done, hit a bunch of goals, had virtually no hit to my income or finances, and pretty much skated through a year that left a lot of people crashed and burning by the side of the road. And…it wasn’t luck. By living below my means, getting the house paid off, not carrying debt, having multiple income streams, and keeping a cautious eye open for opportunities, 2020 wound up being, on paper, a good year for me.

What’s my prediction for 2021?  The likeliest thing I see happening is economic uncertainty. Keep in mind, I say “uncertainty” but that doesn’t indicate good or bad. There could be an economic revival of sorts as the ‘dead wood’ is swept aside as businesses that were long past tenable finally disappear, leaving behind smaller, more agile, better run businesses to take up the slack. The void left by businesses closing is an opportunity for new businesses. The forced acceleration of the inevitable switch to more ‘telecommuting’ or ‘remote’ jobs may open avenues for people who have wanted to work for East/West coast companies but never wanted to leave Kansas. So, there is a perspective that says 2021 might be a good year.

But, then theres the other side of the argument….businesses close or reduce their workforce, long-term leases for business space dry up creating commercial real estate ghost towns, unemployment increases, .gov starts printing money for benefits, state and local .gov get carried away with their newfound powers in the name of ‘the public health’, the Trump tax changes get repealed, we all lumber through a prolonged recession….that sort of thing. Telecommuting means a broader pool of competitors for a job opening, possibly even outsourcing. A larger pool of candidates means employers can offer less compensation and be reasonably sure someone, somewhere, will take it. Could go either way. So….yeah, changes ahead….and those changes could swing in either direction.

And that doesn’t even touch on whether or not the new administration (or whoever is pulling their strings) finally gets around to the old chestnut of ‘reasonable gun control’ that has become a rallying cry for the left.

Personally, I think 2021 will be a year that is full of the consequences of 2020. I think the economic impact of the everything that happened in 2020 will ‘come home to roost’ in 2021. My personal plans for 2021 include reducing expenditures and maximizing income as much as possible, spreading my assets out into various forms…cash, savings, metals, etc., working on some sideline gigs that will generate some cash fairly consistently so there’s always something coming in, and overall just working on increasing my resilience against whatever is coming.

A going concern

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As you may recall, Remington went into bankruptcy a little while back and several of their subsidiary companies were picked up by other people. Most notably, Marlin was acquired by Ruger. I think this bodes extremely well for the continuation of the Marlin product line. However, I was so excited about Marlin becoming part of Ruger that I failed to see the forest for all the trees. To wit: Remington is out of business.

Or is it?

Remington, as I understand it, is now part of Vista Outdoors and they’ve begun the process of starting up the plant tog et back to making guns. But…I’ve seen this before in the gun industry… a company goes under, a group of investors (or a single investor) buys it up and thinks they’ll just pick up where things left off, and usually after a short while they go out of business. Examples? Hmmm…AMT (The AutoMag folks), Wildey, Lorcin/Bryco/Raven, at least half a dozen lower-tier AR manufacturers, etc.

The reason I was thinking about this was because if Remington is, in fact, no longer ‘a going concern’, then one of the staples of the survivalist’s armory, the 870, may be living on borrowed time.

Name two of the most common, most well regarded pump-action shotguns. You said Mossberg and Remington, right? Sure…FN and a couple other outfits make some quite nice pump guns but for probably 90% of the gun buying population, when they buy a pumpgun its either an 870 or a 500/590. Easy.

So, I’m curious if perhaps it’s time to recommend the 500/590 over the 870 simply on the basis of future availability. Certainly existing 870’s will have virtually all their needs met by third-party markets. Remington 870’s are like Ford 9N tractors…you can build one virtually from nothing but aftermarket parts and never use an original OEM part.

Personally, I’ve got enough 870’s tucked away to completely remove en entire taxon of waterfowl… the death of the 870 will be sad but effect me minimally. I know there are Chinese knockoffs of the 870 and yours works flawlessly, but anyone who buys a Chinese copy of an 870 with the idea it’s “just as good as” deserves what they get.

I suspect that Remington as an arms manufacturer might be a little ‘too big to fail’…with its long history, highly regarded (at least, up until a few years ago) product line of stalwart designs, and high aftermarket support, it would make sense for future owners/investors to try to keep some of the flagship guns like the 870 in production. But…who knows? These could be the same goobers that gave us the R51, RP9, and that crappy .380 they came out with.

As I think about it, I am getting more and more respect for Ruger. They’ve managed to run their business better than Colt, Remington, and Winchester if bankruptcies and sales of ownership are anything to go by.

Should be interesting to see what happens…I will definitely be watching to see what happens to Marlin under Ruger, but it’ll also be worth watching to see if the 870 continues to be on the market. (And hopefully with better QC than what was slipping out the doors a few years ago.)

 

 

Seasons Beatings

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Well, I’m not really a Christmas kinda guy..what with being a nonbeliever an all, but I recognize that a lot of folks get into the holiday so I’ll go ahead and cover my bases and wish everyone a merry Chrismahanukwanzika.

I’d also like to take a moment to thank a couple people who sent me Amazon gift cards as Christmas presents .Very thoughtful, guys…thank you very much.

2020 goes into the history books in another week and then we face 2021 with all of the unknowns arrayed before us. It should be an extremely interesting year.

BUT…thats a week away. In the meantime, have a nice holiday and let me know if you got any cool gifties.

 

Hit it, Placido….

Back to the regularly scheduled buying

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No one was even hinting at banning rice, pasta, drink mix, frozen meat, or canned vegetables. But…they were talking about banning ‘assault weapons’ and ‘high capacity’ magazines. As a result, it made logical sense to focus on the acquisition of things that may not be obtainable if I waited. So, now that thats out of the way and the mags are resting in their new olive-drab steel homes, it’s time to reshift my focus back to where it was earlier – increasing resilience against the upcoming economic issues that seem to loom for 2021.

For me, that resilience-building is exactly three things: resources (money/metals) laid back, more food and necessary tangible goods, and alternate sources of income.

Once in a while someone asks if I’m really stockpiling food because I’m worried about some sort of shortage or famine. No, I’m not. I think that, by and large, it’s virtually impossible to starve in this country as a result of economic factors. I store food (and other things like TP, cleaning supplies, socks, soap, cooking oil, etc.) because if my life hits a hiccup where I suffer an income loss I’ll be able to use whatever income remains wisely since I won’t need to spend it on those goods. Coincidentally, those goods also come in handy if something Very Bad does, in fact, happen.

I’ve no idea what 2021 holds, but even if the Wuhan Flu thing gets under control, there are sill some major paradigm shifts that are going to have consequences. Probably the biggest is the ‘work from home’ model that we have moved into. For decades we have been told that with the advent of he internet we will all be telecommuting and that we will be able to work form home. It never happened on a big scale because there was little motivation for it to happen. It would have happened eventually, but the flu has forced that change to come much earlier. And now businesses are realizing that employees either weren’t 100% necessary, or they are realizing that if employees work remotely then they can hire cheaper employees from across the nation or across the world for the same results and less money. As a result, I see the jobs market changing radically. No longer are you competing with other job hunters in your region, you are now competing with job hunters from across the nation (and world). And with that kind of competition, the wages can be lower because someone will always be willing to work for less. So, to my way of thinking, while there never was a such thing as a ‘steady job’ there is now even less stability in a job. Physical jobs will be mostly unaffected…the guys on the garbage truck, the guys changing your oil, the fella delivering packages…they’ll be okay. But accountants, salespeople, consultants, the white collar stuff….thats going to be different. And since I can’t see how that’s going to shake out, I err on the side of caution and try to be ready.

So I’m finished with the ‘ban stuff’ stockpiling (unless something comes along at a screaming deal) and getting back to the basics – update the preponomicon and start continue increasing resilience.

 

Cheaper Than Dirt called out for price gouging

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It was brought to my attention in comments that CTD, home of the $100 Pmag, has been called to the carpet by the Texas AG for price gouging to the tune of having to refund $400k to customers.

Some linkage:

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coronavirus/article242031861.html

BREAKING: Texas AG Accuses Cheaper Than Dirt of Price Gouging

I have razzed CTD for years for their computerized algorithm that raises prices to slow demand as inventory dwindles. Succinctly, as inventory levels go down, the automatic pricing raises the price to slow down the sales of inventory. The idea being that you slow down the sales of inventory so that you’ll get restocked before you run out of stuff. Problem is, in a panic buying situation the inventory is flying off the shelf so fast, and the next resupply is uncertain, that the price keeps going up up up….thats how you get $99 Pmags.

However, you also get them when someone just arbitrarily says “Quadruple the price of everything.”

Regardless, CTD just took a hit to their reputation that is going to be legendary in the gun community for years to come. I expect them to either make a statement denying the charges and saying they settled for $400k to avoid more costly  litigation..or…I expect the to say nothing in hopes it all blows over.

Regardless, for those of you who never saw the earlier times CTD dropped its pants and bent the consumer over……….

ETA: I almost forgot to mention, CTD has also, during times of panic, cancelled existing orders that were already made forcing the would-be purchaser to either renew the order at the new higher prices or go elsewhere. Classy.

Final mag purchases of 2020

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Unless something insanely discounted happens, I am done with buying magazines. (Although I am done buying them, there’s still some in the pipeline that aren’t here yet. Most notably a buncha Magpul AR-10 mags.)

Under a Biden $200-tax-stamp-on-magazines program, you’re looking at $40,000 worth of tax stamp. I mean…you know…if a person actually registered them.

For the want of a nail 2021 was lost

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“I can’t wait for 2020 to be over!” is something I keep hearing over and over. To me, it’s like hearing people boarding the Titanic saying “I can’t wait for this ship to pull away from the dock and get under way!”

Why does anyone think that 2021 is going to be an improvement over 2020? I mean, think about it a minute….all the negative things that occurred in 2020? The consequences of those events will carry into or appear in 2021. 2021 is going to be full of unplanned, unintended, and unanticipated consequences of things that happened in 2020.

Lemme give you an example – Wuhan Flu erupts and Joe the waiter gets his hours cut or his job ‘temporarily’ eliminated. Ok, we can foresee that. And then Joe can’t pay his rent, but have no fear…government puts a moratorium on evictions. Joe is safe. But there’s further downstream consequences…Sally, the retired schoolteacher who owns the rental property that Joe is not paying rent on, counts on that rental income every month to supplement her small pension. And pay the property taxes on that rental. And the insurance. And now that Joe has a gov-issued free pass to squat there, Sally has to choose between eating and paying property taxes to avoid losing her rental property. Unintended consequences.

I think 2021 is going to be full of downstream consequences like that. People only look one or two, maybe three, steps downstream at what the consequences of some of these things will be. Look further and you’ll see that it takes time for the affects of those things to occur…and when will those affects finally start bubbling to the surface? 2021.

The original proverb goes something like this;

For want of a nail a horseshoe was lost,
for want of a horseshoe a horse went lame,
for want of a horse a rider never got through,
for want of a rider a message never arrived,
for want of a message an army was never sent,
for want of an army a battle was lost,
for want of a battle a war was lost,
for want of a war a kingdom fell,
and all for want of a nail.

The guy putting shoes on the horse probably never thinks that if he does his job incorrectly the kingdom will fall into ruin, after all its just a nail in a horseshoe. But…its an excellent example of how not thinking about the far reaching consequences of an action come back to bite you on the ass.

My point is: there is no, and I mean NO, indication that 2021 is going to be a welcome relief from 2020. Even with a vaccine, the damage that has been done socially, economically, politically, ideologically, and emotionally is already in play. Like an earthquake in the middle of the ocean, the tsunami has already started to head towards land. The fact that it doesnt strike right away doesn’t change the fact that it has already started. Same thing.

More worrisome are the people who think that once the calendar rolls over to 2021…whew!..we’re safe. These are the people who will be caught empty pantry, empty bank account, empty magazines, empty life when 2021 doubles down on the crap that 2020 started.

But…I could be wrong. Maybe everyone gets the vaccine, infection rates drop, businesses (the ones that survived) roar back and boundless opportunities present themselves. Might happen. But I’d rather prepare for the other alternative and be proven wrong, than not prepare because I believe in the rosy future and wind up shoplifting steaks to survive.