Signs of the time

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Whats missing from this picture of the CostCo meat counter?

Answer: Prices.

Usually there’s a couple big signs on the wall listing the regular and case prices. Those signs, clearly, are now absent. Reason? I’m guessing it’s because prices (and availability) are uncertain. Now, remember, this is just my opinion…I didn’t actually ask anyone there. For all I know they pulled the signs down so they could paint the walls or something. But…given the Current Situation, I suspect its a matter of pricing and availability.

Just one of those little things I’m sure not many other people at CostCo noticed, but little things like that kinda jump out at me.

 

Beef – it’s what’s not for dinner

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I was in my local Albertson’s and was doing my usual trawling of the meat department for bargains when I notices that a large amount of ground beef was plastered with the “30%” off stickers. But no “50%”. I inquired at the meat counter and was told that a) meats aren’t getting marked down 50% because the demand is high enough that it will sell at 30% off and b) the 50% is too much of a price cut because of the higher prices they are having to pay these days. That last part made no sense but the guy in the white coat and hairnet isn’t a finance major.

Regardless of the guy’s statement, I can see some of what he’s getting at. No two ways around it, beef prices are up. Ground beef is at prices that, to me, are just ridiculous. Fortunately, chicken is my main go-to for animal protein and I can usually get that on sale for around $1.99/#. But my meat trays, which have been a staple of my freezer stocking program for quite a few years now, are reflecting these new sensibilities. Gone is the 3# “Log” of ground beef that used to make up 1/4 of the tray. And the sirloins which sometimes were part of the tray are now completely gone. Whats left? Pork and chicken. Invariably it’s now some type of sausage, pork steak, chicken legs, and some other cut of pork. In my opinion, not really worth the bother anymore.

Meat tray as it used to be

Another version of the meat tray as it used to be. Note this one is 1/2 beef.

Fortunately, I’ve been stocking the freezer long before this, and chicken is my main choice of meat, so the relative high price/scarcity of beef doesn’t really faze me. But…it is kind of unsettling to think that in a country whose supermarkets were incomprehensible to people from communist countries, we are starting to get the very faintest of whiffs of the kind of supermarket shortages that we always associated with Communist/Socialist states.

Come to think of it, this year is the first time I have ever seen national-level grocery store shortages. We had The Great TP Rush of 2020, and similar runs on things like Rice, pasta, frozen pizzas, and that sort of thing. Sure, we see it when hurricanes and earthquakes occur…but that’s usually a local-level thing. Earlier this year it didn’t matter if you were in Alaska or Alabama, you weren’t gonna get to squeeze any Charmin.

And now, as there is talk of ‘re-lockdowns’, it might be time to make sure that you’ve learned your lesson from earlier this year. And,Ā  by the by, even if there’s not a shortage of [beef/pasta/rice/TP] I can almost guarantee you that there is going to be a shortage of money. I think right now people are holding onto their cash with both hands as they worry about the market, their jobs, etc. Housing prices in my town, which were ridiculously high, have come down slightly as people are deciding that perhaps this isn’t the year to be spending huge money and perhaps it might be better to just hold onto that down payment money until next year…you know…’just in case’.

Its the weekend, so for me it’s time for another $50 towards getting items on the Preponomicon into the green. Go. Buy. Stockpile.

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Thereā€™s a link at the top of the column on the right hand of your screen. I think what Iā€™ll probably do is, on an experimental basis for now, post a footer in a random post once a week with a quick link. Weā€™ll see if that doesnā€™t come across as too crass and self-serving.

The first rule of Prep Club

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I was talking to someone the other day and they mentioned that their wife, who had been ‘on board’ with his interest in preparedness has, as of late, become more approving of his interest. I told him that he was not the first person to experience this lately. I know several people whose wives tolerated their interest in preparedness as a sort of ‘quirky guy thing’ and have suddenly discovered that they rather appreciate the increased feeling of security it provides.

But, any situation threatening enough to make an on-the-fence/humouring spouse suddenly a believer is also threatening enough that the old “I’ll just come to your place in case anything happens” scenario a bit more dangerous.

This is brought to mind by a dream I had the other night. I dreamt that there was a Mount St Helens type of explosion off on the horizon and my neighbors and I stood on the street and watched half a mountain disappear. Then we watched it re-appear as Volkswagen-size chunks of earth came crashing down around us, destroying homes, cars, power lines, etc. In the dream, I told me neighbor not to worry and to follow me into my basement. The were, naturally, impressed. And I thought “This may have been a bad idea.” Then I woke up.

The message? In calmer times it’s a good idea to obey the first rule of Prep Club. In times of…excitement…it is even more vital. The classic scenario is that the world comes to an end and everyone tries to get into your bomb shelter. But things don’t have to reach that level for secrecy to be your friend. Even without bombs dropping or the dead roaming the land, you still have a ton of resources tied up in ammo, guns, radios, gold, and a dozen other things that your garden-variety burglar or thief is interested in. So, yeah, the first rule of Prep Club is that you don’t talk about Prep Club. (Which is ironic since I am, at the moment, talking about Prep Club.)

I suppose that’s one of my biggest gripes about ‘survival groups’ or ‘mutual aid’ groups. You’re trusting people whom you otherwise might not even spend time with ‘in real life’ with information and location about very valuable things you have. Personally, I find it hard to hand out that level of trust. This is why, in my opinion, the best ‘survival groups’ are very small and have a common social denominator that is extremely intimate. Family, for example, is probably the most intimate social group you can have. And even then, we all have that Aunt Jane or Cousin Joe who we would probably not trust with that sort of information. So if something as closely knit as a family has members who you’d not want ‘in your inner circle’, imagine what it’d be like when you start looking outside that family group. All relationships are transitory. The people you trusted with the GPS coords to your stash buried in the National Forest may, for whatever reason, wind up no longer being part of your circle. And when they depart, they take that information with them and you wind up having to change locks and rebury caches.

On the other hand, you could play it close to the vest and your family may not even know about all the things you’ve put away for them. And you get caught away from home (or worse, killed in the crisis) and they have no idea that their salvation was hidden in the basement behind the grandma’s old furniture or sitting in the rafters of the garage.

It’s definitely interesting times that we are living in. And it is reasonably possible that some aspects of the preparations we have made (almost certainly the financial ones, at least) will wind up coming in handy and getting put to use. It’s because of this increased likelihood, and the increased awareness (and desperation) of others, that keeping information about our personal WalMart we’ve created in the basement should stay under our tinfoil hat.

Ben Franklin said that ‘three can keep a secret if two of them are dead’. I wouldn’t go quite that far but, in todays heightened environment, I definitely do keep a pretty tight hand on who I let in my house and who I talk about this sorta stuff with.

 

Article – How long you can take medications like ibuprofen and aspirin after opening them

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One of the things on the Preponomicon that I am trying to get into the green is some OTC medications. Presumably, these things are going to sit on a shelf for, at least, several years. Does aspirin turn into some sort of toxic acid a few years after its ‘Best By’ date?

Just like food, medication is required by law to have an expiration date on its packaging. But how long past that date can you keep using your over-the-counter and prescription drugs? And is it safe to take expired medicine?

INSIDER talked to medical experts to find out how long you can keep using some common medications after opening them.

The answer, it seems, is ” a usefully long time”. But, honestly, this is one of those times where I’m probably going to disregard the common advice, as well as the small financial hit, and simply throw out and replace my 500-tablet bottle of ibuprofin every five years.

Hunter S. Thompson’s Continental breakfast

However, up until a few years ago I was still using a gigantic bottle of Advil that I’d bought at CostCo with an ‘Expiration date’ in 1997. Made my headaches go away just fine.

TL,DR: your Tylenol, Advil, and aspirin are GTG for about 5 years.

 

ETA: I was sent this in email:

The military did a study back in the 80’s examining the bioactivity of stored drugs…Ā  And found that almost all of them were good to go years after their expiration dates. These are drugs that were stored in climate controlled warehouses, in original factory packaging.

ProTip:Ā  Don’t buy one big bottle of a drug, buy lots of little ones… Drugs are hermetically sealed at the factory, and onceĀ  you open them and start shaking things out, moisture gets in and starts degrading the drug.Ā  Not to mention whatever you may introduce with your finger..

For drug storage, put the unopened drugs in a refrigerator – don’t freeze them.Ā  Why keep them cool?Ā  In general (rule of thumb time) for every 10-degree C reduction in temperature a chemical process (like a drug, degrading) experiences, the rate of the process reduces by 1/2.Ā  So, your drugs will last about 4 times longer in the refrigerator at 2-c, then at room temperature at 22-c.

Why not freeze them?Ā  Because they may degrade (especially liquid or ointment products) and separate (the various components freeze at different temperatures).Ā  When they thaw, they melt at different temps too, and don’t reconstitute.Ā  This is ESPECIALLY important for drugs like insulin, a protein: Freezing the protein breaks it apart, and then it is done.Ā  No longer useful…Ā Ā  So, cold:Ā  Not frozen.

The military did a study back in the 80’s examining the bioactivity of stored drugs…Ā  And found that almost all of them were good to go years after their expiration dates. These are drugs that were stored in climate controlled warehouses, in original factory packaging.

Disclaimer:Ā  I am a physician. I am NOT your physician.Ā  This is not medical advice.

https://www.propublica.org/article/the-myth-of-drug-expiration-dates

https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/expiration-dating-extension

Furthering the resilience

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Another weekend, another couple items on my list moved ‘into the green’. While I was at CostCo picking up oatmeal and hand sanitizer I noticed that the seemingly endless social distancing annoyances are fading. The directional arrows to encourage one-way traffic in an aisle? Gone. The “Please wait here until called forward by cashier” signs? Gone. The red tape on the floor marking where to stand with your cart while in line? Gone. Requirement to wear a mask? Still there. Can’t have everything, I suppose.

Having finally gotten the house paid off has freed up enough cash from the monthly budget that spending $50 a weekend on ‘preps’ is a less than zero sum game, budgetwise. I need to start moving some of that available money into my Roth, cash savings, and metals.

The hardcore among you will say that I’m foolish to be putting money into my Roth when the economy is going to come crashing down any day as the BIlderbergerTrilateralCFRIlluminati sre only moments away from executing their grand plan to crush the US economy and get the Blue Helmets out on the street.

Look, I’ve been a survivalist for over thirty years…I’ve needed $50 bills far more often than I’ve needed .50 BMG. And being a survivalist means you prepare for the future…and if the economy doesn’t come crashing down, I want to be ready for that too. So..I continue to put money into the markets through my Roth. And, just in case, I also put money into silver. And, for those middle-of-the-road emergencies…cash. And none of those strategies, such as they are, are preventing me from making progress. Putting money in my Roth isn’t leaving me vulnerable and unprepared against the boogaloo, and preparing for the zombie apocalypse isn’t keeping me from making smart moves with my Roth and savings. I can do those things at the same time.

Right now, I don’t see the economy imploding and turning us into a crowd of Steinbeck characters standing around a campfire trading .22 cartridges for gasoline. So, what do I think is going to happen?

Unemployment is going to stay high for the short term, GDP will improve but still be negative for at least another quarter so not a recession in the technical sense but, really, a recession, and the market will continue to gain until the election, when all bets are off.

Whats that mean to me? It means continue to live well within my means, buy now what I think I may need later that may not be available, buy and hold when something in the market looks underpriced, steadily and consistently buy a little metal here and there, and put back as much cash as possible. Think about the effects of a hobbled economy and what risks and opportunities it’ll present.

What should you do? Beats me. Your situation is unique and you are the most qualified person to evaluate the courses of action you should take. But, the one thing I can recommend to you is this: think. Don’t just daydream when you’re in WalMart about “Oh, maybe I should get some of these…” or jawbone with your buddies “If it gets bad, I’m gonna…” Get away from the computer, find a quiet place where you won’t be disturbed, sit down with a notebook and a pen, and actually, actively, purposefully…think. What are your liabilities? What are your priorities? What are the risks to you? What can you stand to give up? What are you willing to do to make your position more secure? What opportunities are you aware of that may present themselves? Whats your worst case scenario? Whats your most likely case scenario? “I want to be resilient enough that if XXXXX me and the family will be okay for the duration”…great, now plan how to get there.

Very few people build anything well…a car, a house, a relationship, a life…by just spitballing it and going about it half-assed. Some people do, and thats more luck than anything else. Luck is for rabbits. Don’t rely on luck. Find what it is your worried about and then come up with a plan, a strategy, a course of action and behavior, a roadmap to get to the position where that thing you are worried about becomes something you’re not worried about.

My life is not yet nearly as resilient as I’d like it to be. But it has reached a point where it is leaps ahead of many other people’s lives. I’m not unsinkable, but I can withstand icebergs that would crush my neighbors. So..I’ve got that going for me, which is nice.

Patreon

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Several people have emailed me over the last few months to suggest that I get a Patreon account in order that they may contribute to the literary dumpster fire that is my blog. So be it.

Usually Patreon is something where, by ‘subscribing’, or pledging a particular amount each month you unlock some sort of bonus. For example, if you pledge $1 a month you might get to read posts that are not normally available to folks who don’t pony up. Yeah…I’m not doing that.

Look, I’ve got 17 years worth of blogging posts here for you to read. Some good, some bad, some fluffy, some insightful. If you think it’s been enjoyable for you and become part of your routine, I think it would be awesome if you kicked in $2 a month to keep the lights on and the freeze-drieds flowing. But I really have no intention of creating tiers of postings for folks. I’m willing to live with the tragedy of the commons.

There’s a link at the top of the column on the right hand of your screen. I think what I’ll probably do is, on an experimental basis for now, post a footer in a random post once a week with a quick link. We’ll see if that doesn’t come across as too crass and self-serving.

Anyway, it’s there if you’re feeling particularly generous….although in this current economic clime, I may have picked the worst time in the world to set up this thing.

Shelf Reliance

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Food rotation is one of those important things to keep in mind when storing food. Sure, a 15-gallon drum of rice will last virtually forever (if my Y2k stash is anything to go by), but it’s probably a good idea to rotate through whatever you store every few years.

When it comes to canned goods, there are zillions of can ‘rotation shelves’, ‘organizer shelves’, and other can distributors. I had a can organizer that I bought years ago when they were up at CostCo. It has served well for a number of years but, as of late, I’ve kinda ramped up the inventory of canned goods. This means I need to haveĀ  more cans positioned so that the oldest ones get used up first. So, it was time to expand on the modular can organizer.

First step, clear off a run of shelving:

Next step is to unbox these guys:

Grab a couple cans off the shelf to make sure the spacing is correct, and start assembling. The whole thing snaps together like Lego so…no muss, no fuss.

Finish assembly, slide into shelf, and start adding cans…oldest go in first:

I then ran a second row across the shelf next to it, but since it’s pretty much identical to this one there’s no point in documenting that.

Now, yeah, you can buy some cheaper units. And, if your even halfway talented with a saw and a hammer you can fab up something on your own. However, what I was after was modularity.This unit can be configured for variable width to accommodate different size cans, they can be linked together to form one long continuous run, and, very conveniently, they seamlessly integrated with the existing unit I had which was about 15 years old. So…very backwards compatible, which is nice.

You can order of Amazon if you’re so inclined.

Given how much I’m spending these days on beefing(!) up the food storage, the last thing I need is to waste money on cans of food getting shoved into a dark corner, being discovered years later, and having to be discarded because they should have been used up years earlier.

How’s your short- to mid-term food storage coming along? I’m feeling pretty good with what I have so far. I need to fine tune a few ‘luxury’ items I want but….starve to death? Not a chance. However, for practicality’s sake, it would be nice to take about half of this and move it to the Beta Site.

Savage Mk II extended mags

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Couple weeks ago I mentioned that there was a company making extended mags for the Savage Mk II series of bolt action rifles. Since I have one of these rifles tricked out for quietly introducing varmints into the afterlife, I decided to get a couple to try out. They arrived the other day and I finally got a chance to take them to the range.

Worked fine. They have a ‘parkerized’-type porous finish that, according to the manufacturer, needs to have its pores filled with brass from the .22 cartridges. Simply load the mag and then press the round at the top of the mag down a bit and let it come back up. Repeat this a few times and the stack of cartridges will rub some brass into the pores of the magazine. I did as described and…no problems.

Construction appears very good and I see no reason to think the mags won’t last as long as an OEM mag. However, as much as I really like my Savage, the logistics-minded part of me says I should probably get the Ruger version so I can use my hundreds of 10/22 mags.

But..I like my little Savage, its quite accurate, and I rather like it’s sharp looks with that forest camo Boyds laminate stock.

By the by, I’ve run all sortsa silencer-recommended ammo through this thing and the best ammo I’ve found so far are the Remington Subsonic HP. Yes, even over the Eley.

Anyway, if youve got aone of the Savages, and youre looking for something more than the 5- and 10-rounders, it looks like these are the way to go.

Article – Armed Neighborhood Groups Form In The Absence Of Police Protection

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Somebody was nice enough to send me an email with a link to this article. Much thanks.

Cesia Baires knocks on the three apartment doors above her restaurant and a neighboring taqueria just before curfew.

A woman opens the door. Her two young children are inside.

“Remember,” she says to them in Spanish. “Same thing as yesterday. I’m going to come check on you. If there’s anything you guys need, give us a call right away.”

Meanwhile, a few men climb through the window and on to the roof to set up semi-automatic weapons as the curfew begins in Minneapolis. It’s something Baires never thought she would have to do as a small-business owner, but then she found out these apartments were occupied.

“Material things we can replace, that’s true,” she says. “But there are families up here. These aren’t empty buildings.”

I’m a little annoyed at the use of the term ‘vigilante’. which is clearly not what is going on here. But…its NPR so thats about par for the course.

Big and Small EOTWAWKI

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Another day in the happy little melting pot that is America. I recall reading Chittum’s “Civil War II The Coming Breakup of America” years and years ago where he predicted that a Balkanization would take place in the US along racial lines. I’m not sure I see that, although you could argue it has already happened de facto. I could see more of a political Balkanization but, in retrospect, we kind of already have that now don’t we? Look at those colored election maps that come out every four years and the same predictable areas are the same predictable colors. *

By accident or design, I managed to land in a place that pretty much aligns with my own ideals (or, perhaps, I landed here and it re-aligned my ideals to suit it). I don’t necessarily fit in with 100% of the prevailing beliefs here (I’m more of a Goldwater conservative rather than the classic conservative) but, thus far, one of the prevailing beliefs here is that as long as youre not screwing around with your neighbor’s stuff you can pretty much believe whatever the heck you want. That works for me.

So although the social issues seem to be getting to the fore these days, I’m still focused on the economic. And, really, these social issues are going to impact the economic numbers just as hard as the superflu. Whether a business is shut down for Covid or BLM it’s still a business making no money and not paying it’s bills. The bottom line is still the same: economic loss.

Since my apocalypse du jour is economic, I tend to lean towards the stockpile “food and cash-like instruments” end of the spectrum. Sure, there’s ammo in there as well but I’m planning for Great Depression II: The Next Generation, not Civil War II: Electric Boogaloo. Although, honestly, the only difference between preparing for one instead of the other is quantity.

And, not to beat a deceased equine, my experience has been that there’s going to be a lot of small, personal, intimate EOTWAWKI’s in your life (job loss, car problems, health scares, housing issues, loved ones in trouble, etc.) before the Big One and nine times out of ten money turns out to be the duct tape that puts your life back together. So…no debt, wad of cash. For whatever that doesnt fix we have our other preps.

I suppose if you live in a major urban population center, or a state that is home to several of them, your concerns are probably (and justifiably) more centered around the …social disturbances…going on at the moment. By all means, keep a wary eye on the crowds and don’t stray far from your favorite thundertoy….but don’t forget that race riots and firebombers occur far, far, far less frequently than pink slips, busted transmissions, sick dogs, and broken water heaters.

Statistically, this is going to happen more times in your life than a zombie apocalypse.

Prepare for the day the Antifa crowd in their black sweatshirts are marching down the street swinging pieces of pipe. It’ll happen at some point, I’m sure. But don’t get so caught up in the possibility of it happening that you ignore the higher probability of those small EOTWWAWKI’s.

 

* = Chittum is viewed, by many, as a racist. But whether he is or not, doesn’t change the validity (or invalidity) of his predictions. If a racist tells you to get off the tracks because a train is coming, the fact he is a racist (or a communist, or a Muslim, or a homosexual, or a Democrat) does not change the objective fact that, indeed, a train is coming and you need to get your butt off the tracks.