It seems that the meat department at Albertson’s is politely asking people to limit meat purchases.

I’ve got a freezer full of meat, as well as a goodly amount of canned meat, so I’m not terribly concerned.

Food, gasoline, cash, cleaning supplies, ammo, electricity….I’m feeling fairly secure. I’d feel better with more money in the bank, but thats pretty much always the case.

The lessons I’m learning here are legion. The biggest one is that consistency and discipline is paramount. Next time I think “Hmm..Im a little low on X, I’ll get more next month when I go shopping”. No, you get it as soon as you find out that you need it. Compacency in the past is becoming apparent. When this is all over there is going to be some severe changes to the frequency and diligence at which I put money, silver,food, and supplies aside. Like..religiously diligent.

But, by and large, I’m ahead of most of the crowd and I suspect you are too.

Whats been your weak spots?

Apparently one bank in town has already shuttered their lobby. This is not the same as closing the bank, but you have to admit…it certainly thins down the amount of people that can access tellers. They closed the lobby, obviously, over contamination concerns but it isn’t hard to imagine that it will be a major inconvenience to people who don’t have the time to sit in a drive-thru line waiting for cash withdrawals that exceed the daily ATM limit. But…if you’d kept cash in the safe, you’d be ahead of a bunch of that.

ETA: And my local credit union, where I bank, just sent this:

Wednesday, March 18^th, we will close all lobbies in our branches. This is a very important way to limit group interaction to protect your health and that of our co-workers. Drive-thrus will remain open.

I haven’t checked, but I’ll bet the usual local venues are low on gas cans. I actually had some empties sitting around and just got back from filling them. I doubt gas will be affected too much, but who wants to stand in line or deal with that sort of thing if they don’t have to? Plus, I’m eventually going to use it up anyway so may as well have it on hand. Under lock and key, I might add.

And one of the local hospitals is refusing anything except life-threatening stuff. Hmmm.

And here’s some perspective. People are, indeed, stripping the supermarkets bare of certain things. But have you gone into any supermarket and found it it be devoid of all food? Absolutely bare? Probably not. The supermarkets may be out of the food you like, but they’re not out of food. You may not like store-brand rice krispies, couscous and pilaf, canned beets, water chestnuts, and cream of mushroom soup….but you won’t starve.

I have 72 packages of PopTarts left.

Stopped by the coin shop to see what the story was on PM’s today since silver did go down a bit(!). They were not selling. Period. Why, I asked. They had silver rounds sitting right there in the case. Why not sell them? It seems that they could not get a straight answer from their suppliers on how much the premium for restocking would be. The premium is what you pay over the spot price….the premium is basically the markup. Until last week, my guy was charging $1 over spot. So if silver was $11, I paid $12. If it was $10, I pay $11. You get the idea. When the dealer restocks, his vendor charges spot plus their premium which is usually less than the premium youre getting charged. It has to be, otherwise the dealer takes a loss. So, my guy has silver to sell but if his vendor charges him a $3 premium and and he, in turn, charges me a $2 premium he loses money on each sale. Being unable to get a straight answer about what his restocking premium would be, he cant figure out what premium to charge customers. So…no sale.

I walked every aisle in my local Albertsons to see what was thin in this increased panic buying. (Make no mistake, as I view it with my own eyes it has increased.) Paper towels, toilet paper, disinfectant, beans, canned beans, rice, pasta, jarred spaghetti sauce, instant potatoes, canned vegetables, canned soup, canned fruit, canned meat, pancake mix, stuffing mix, all were gone or greatly reduced. The meat department was down at least 50%. That was a little odd to see. Meat trays? Gone. Remaindered meat? Gone.

At the post office, everyone in line was keeping about 4 feet away from the person in line in front of them. No one lingered to talk to anyone.

No lines at the gas station yet. Nor lines at the bank. But as the penny drops for most people I fully expect that to happen.

I know people in ‘big states’…the high-population ‘big city’ states…and some of what they tell me, in terms of panic buying, government response, and marketplace changes is pretty out there. I’m glad I live where I live, although a cabin in the middle of nowhere with a good internet connection would be about perfect right now. But, my classes are now online and I don’t have to deal with people face-to-face if I don’t want to, so it could be a lot worse.

I’m spending the evenings re-evaluating my own preps and making notes. I would guess this is the most … active….bit of national hysteria since the Cuban Missile Crisis. I’m fascinated by the government (fed and local) reactions, as well as the reactions of the sheeple who suddenly realize a six-pack of Charmin and a few cans of Dinty Moore are not enough.

Even though it’s still early in this crisis, I’m making notes of what to differently in the future, assuming this eventually settles down to a ‘new normal’ which should be a fascinating normal to see. I’m not anticipating a failure of electricity or water, although it is certainly in the realm of the possible…although reduced availability seems more likely than a total dryout/blackout….but I need to get the angles on that just in case.

And, because interesting times are worth remembering, some pictures from my explorations…all from the same grocery:

There are several variations, but they all amount to the same thing. Here’s the Todd Rundgren version:

For want of a nail, the shoe was lost,
For want of a shoe, the horse was lost,
For want of a horse, the rider was lost,
For want of a rider, the message was lost,
For want of a message, the battle was lost,
For want of a battle, the war was lost,
For want of a war, the kingdom was lost,
All for the want of a nail

The moral here is that the seemingly small and insignificant detail can ‘Butterfly Effect‘ into something bigger.

The media, which seems to be whipsawing between ‘create’ vs ‘control’ in terms of panicmongering, is full of statements about how hoarding and panic shopping is unnecessary because supermarkets get restocked darn near every day, comrade!

In NYFC, schools will be closed.

The connection between the two? The truck driving single dad (or mom) who now can’t work their usual hours, or at all, because they have to watch their kids. So their delivery schedule cuts cut, delayed, or cancelled. Multiply that by all the other people who now have to work less hours or not at all because they gotta have someone watch the kids. It’s these downstream effects that no one seems to take into consideration.

Chicago is closing down its restaurants. Vendors, employees, etc, are gonna have to hope they can go two weeks without a paycheck. 40% of Americans can’t cover a $400 emergency expense….  and when they get back to work in two weeks, if theyre allowed to re-open, what will the customer turnout be like?

This event really will be quite instructive. There should be reams and reams of after-action reports to absorb when this all finally shakes out. It’ll especially be interesting to see which regions/states/countries fared better/worse and why.

Earlier today, we learned that all Montana University System campuses, including the University of Montana, would transition to remote instruction after spring break (3/23). While we thought this might be coming, I still feel a bit of a shock in hearing the final decision. I have not had time to completely absorb this information or redesign the course, so I will not have answers to all of your questions yet. Nonetheless, I want to communicate a few things with you.

1. Our experience will look different, but my commitment to you is for you to learn the material you need to be successful in your career. I will examine the content of the course and may need to redesign some elements.

2. I continue to work with McGrawHill to help you obtain access to Connect resources.

3. I will find a way to deliver in-class content remotely, either synchronously or asynchronously. Please be patient as I test out the different options to find one that is easy enough to learn in a short period of time and will work well given the type of content we cover (technical, mathematically-oriented).

4. I will hold remote office hours. I need to figure out the options for this – maybe you’ll sign up for zoom meetings, maybe I’ll just log in and will be available for anyone to zoom in. I’m not sure yet, but I’ll figure it out.

Ultimately, we will work together to ensure you have the best learning experience possible in these unusual circumstances.

Please take care of yourselves and let me know if you have any questions.

We’re in the uncharted parts of the map now…….