The way I see it, there’s some good and bad in this virus thing. The good is that some people will come around to the notion of being more responsible for their own well being and safety. The bad is that .gov is going to start flexing its ’emergency’ powers and once you give a power to .gov it’s pretty hard to take it away.

Meanwhile, my particular corner of the universe is still in a sort of transitional phase. Restaurants are closed and grocery stores are hit hard in some product groups, but there’s still traffic on the streets and people walking around doing stuff. Reading the various news sources tells me not to get used to this sort of thing…any moment now some sort of national quarantine will kick off as hospitals become overrun, supplies dwindle, and we all slide into poverty that will require a ‘reboot’ of our financial system…but with new improvements and features.

I am curious…if a national emergency gets declared will they take the phone off the hook over at NICS and prohibit firearms purchases? Nationwide ‘gun holiday’ as people are told that no firearms sales can be made? Could happen, I suppose. It happens on local levels all the time:

So far, as best I can tell, this Kung Flu thing hasn’t really necessitated cracking open the gun safe and going full Burt Gummer…but it’s nice to have that option. I have spares around for the odd chance that I might need to loan one out to someone who doesn’t have their own, but I don’t forsee that really happening yet.

School restarts, albeit online, next week and I am curious to see what happens. I’ve not received any emails from my instructors explaining how we are supposed to be doing this online stuff, so I need to reach out to them and make sure they didnt send an email or something and I missed it.I hope the powers that be at the school tell the instructors to grade extra-generously to compensate for the Chinese fire drill that is going to take place as classes that were supposedly ‘not available online’ suddenly become available online.

Meanwhile…same old same old. I’m checking he news to keep an eye on what kind  of mischief my local, state, and fed governments are up to, and trying not to panic-buy more stuff.

Regardless of where the virus is, in terms of progressing along its timeline, I think we are still way, way, way in the very early stages of the economic consequences. People are just starting to get sent home or laid off….in two weeks or so, after that first missed paycheck, it should be time to re-evaluate how he situation looks. I’d reckon in a  month or so, youre going to see more stuff in the supermarkets as people out of work tighten their belts and try not to spend. For anyone who has been carrying lotsa debt and not kept up a good emergency fund…..oy, thats gonna leave a mark.

Went to CostCo last night and was rather surprised. They had stacked empty pallets about chest high on either side of the main entrance. This narrowed the entrance down to a width just wide enough for one person. A chokepoint. As each person entered CostCo they were handed a bleach wipe for their cart. A sign on top of the pallets had a dry-erase board listing what CostCo was out of at the moment. It was a little surreal to see this little barricade at the entrance.

Further in the store were signs reminding people that while CostCo does have a generous return policy, they will not accept returns on a few panci-buying favorites:

Can you see the idiocy here? If you panic bought TP and rice because you didnt have any stockpiled, why wouldn’t you keep it so that next time you’re not forced to  panic buy? If bought TP in a panic and then return it, you’re going to be forced to panic buy again next time. Morons.

The other interesting bit was that CostCo has closed down the food court for anything other than takeout orders of entire pizzas and the like. No sitting down and eating your hot dog and pop.

And, as I discovered, CostCo is also limiting quantities on particular items. For example, one case of bottled water per cardholder.

Interesting times, me boyos, interesting times.

It seems that some municipalities, in order to avoid crowded jail situations and compensate for ‘blue flu’, are looking the other way when it comes to particular crimes and offenses. Things that might have gotten you a ride in the back of a Crown Vic and a trip to stand in front of the judge are now being adjudicated with warnings and/or citations…or just a stern talking to. (Essentially, British style policing.) Naturally, the media catches up on this and duly reports it..thereby basically telling everyone that it’s okay to commit minor crimes because we don’t have the resources to deal with you. Or, in other words, a low-level indie version of The Purge.

Problem is, low-level crime doesn’t always stay low-level. Shoplifting a 40 oz. from the Korean grocery is low-level…until mama-san catches you and starts screaming and hitting you with her pricing gun. And in his overwhelming desire to GTFO, our low level criminal busts her one across the jaw and runs. And junior sees mom get her bell rung, grabs a baseball but and runs out the door after our low-level criminal. What happens when the two meet is definitely no longer low-level. So, yeah, those ‘let em go’ low-level offenses and crimes can spin outta control pretty quickly. And its all fun and games until someone needs a chest seal.

So, otherwise reasonable people might cast a curious glance at the fella in Krogers with a Sig 226 tucked on his hip. It’s a virus, after all…not a race riot. Why the hardware? Because disasters always wind up bringing out the worst in some people. not all people, maybe not even the majority of people…but some people.

Remember the predicted paradigm of “when the government handouts stop there’ll be looting and burning in the streets?” I guarantee you that right now, in some major population centers, there are people who think they’re going to get checks from Uncle Sam for a couple thousand dollars over this ‘stimulus package’ nonsense. And if that doesn’t come to pass? Well..thats “my money” that I was “entitled to” and next thing you know you get crowds constructively expressing their dissatisfaction by breaking windows and burning cars.

Far fetched? Mmmmmaybe. But more likely the scum down the street in that crazy  house are going to start rattling doorknobs at 3am and lock-checking parked cars since they know that people are going to be loading up on cash and other desirable items ‘just in case’. Garages that are unlocked will be visited at night. Items in your yard might start disappearing. And someone might be keeping an eye on your driveway to see when your car (and by extension, you) are and aren’t home. I suspect that the more rural your location the more likely that you might get the prepper-fiction-classic of strangers rolling up to your house and helping themselves.

Time to roll out the razor ribbon and sentry guns? I doubt it. But it is time to make sure that taking your pistol with you when you leave the house ‘most of the time’ becomes taking your pistol with you when you leave the house ‘every time’. Wanna take it a step further and keep a carbine and mags in the truck ‘just in case’? Nothing wrong with that, I suppose. Me, I keep it simple for now….G17 and a spare mag.

It seems that the meat department at Albertson’s is politely asking people to limit meat purchases.

I’ve got a freezer full of meat, as well as a goodly amount of canned meat, so I’m not terribly concerned.

Food, gasoline, cash, cleaning supplies, ammo, electricity….I’m feeling fairly secure. I’d feel better with more money in the bank, but thats pretty much always the case.

The lessons I’m learning here are legion. The biggest one is that consistency and discipline is paramount. Next time I think “Hmm..Im a little low on X, I’ll get more next month when I go shopping”. No, you get it as soon as you find out that you need it. Compacency in the past is becoming apparent. When this is all over there is going to be some severe changes to the frequency and diligence at which I put money, silver,food, and supplies aside. Like..religiously diligent.

But, by and large, I’m ahead of most of the crowd and I suspect you are too.

Whats been your weak spots?

Apparently one bank in town has already shuttered their lobby. This is not the same as closing the bank, but you have to admit…it certainly thins down the amount of people that can access tellers. They closed the lobby, obviously, over contamination concerns but it isn’t hard to imagine that it will be a major inconvenience to people who don’t have the time to sit in a drive-thru line waiting for cash withdrawals that exceed the daily ATM limit. But…if you’d kept cash in the safe, you’d be ahead of a bunch of that.

ETA: And my local credit union, where I bank, just sent this:

Wednesday, March 18^th, we will close all lobbies in our branches. This is a very important way to limit group interaction to protect your health and that of our co-workers. Drive-thrus will remain open.

I haven’t checked, but I’ll bet the usual local venues are low on gas cans. I actually had some empties sitting around and just got back from filling them. I doubt gas will be affected too much, but who wants to stand in line or deal with that sort of thing if they don’t have to? Plus, I’m eventually going to use it up anyway so may as well have it on hand. Under lock and key, I might add.

And one of the local hospitals is refusing anything except life-threatening stuff. Hmmm.

And here’s some perspective. People are, indeed, stripping the supermarkets bare of certain things. But have you gone into any supermarket and found it it be devoid of all food? Absolutely bare? Probably not. The supermarkets may be out of the food you like, but they’re not out of food. You may not like store-brand rice krispies, couscous and pilaf, canned beets, water chestnuts, and cream of mushroom soup….but you won’t starve.

I have 72 packages of PopTarts left.

Stopped by the coin shop to see what the story was on PM’s today since silver did go down a bit(!). They were not selling. Period. Why, I asked. They had silver rounds sitting right there in the case. Why not sell them? It seems that they could not get a straight answer from their suppliers on how much the premium for restocking would be. The premium is what you pay over the spot price….the premium is basically the markup. Until last week, my guy was charging $1 over spot. So if silver was $11, I paid $12. If it was $10, I pay $11. You get the idea. When the dealer restocks, his vendor charges spot plus their premium which is usually less than the premium youre getting charged. It has to be, otherwise the dealer takes a loss. So, my guy has silver to sell but if his vendor charges him a $3 premium and and he, in turn, charges me a $2 premium he loses money on each sale. Being unable to get a straight answer about what his restocking premium would be, he cant figure out what premium to charge customers. So…no sale.

I walked every aisle in my local Albertsons to see what was thin in this increased panic buying. (Make no mistake, as I view it with my own eyes it has increased.) Paper towels, toilet paper, disinfectant, beans, canned beans, rice, pasta, jarred spaghetti sauce, instant potatoes, canned vegetables, canned soup, canned fruit, canned meat, pancake mix, stuffing mix, all were gone or greatly reduced. The meat department was down at least 50%. That was a little odd to see. Meat trays? Gone. Remaindered meat? Gone.

At the post office, everyone in line was keeping about 4 feet away from the person in line in front of them. No one lingered to talk to anyone.

No lines at the gas station yet. Nor lines at the bank. But as the penny drops for most people I fully expect that to happen.

I know people in ‘big states’…the high-population ‘big city’ states…and some of what they tell me, in terms of panic buying, government response, and marketplace changes is pretty out there. I’m glad I live where I live, although a cabin in the middle of nowhere with a good internet connection would be about perfect right now. But, my classes are now online and I don’t have to deal with people face-to-face if I don’t want to, so it could be a lot worse.

I’m spending the evenings re-evaluating my own preps and making notes. I would guess this is the most … active….bit of national hysteria since the Cuban Missile Crisis. I’m fascinated by the government (fed and local) reactions, as well as the reactions of the sheeple who suddenly realize a six-pack of Charmin and a few cans of Dinty Moore are not enough.

Even though it’s still early in this crisis, I’m making notes of what to differently in the future, assuming this eventually settles down to a ‘new normal’ which should be a fascinating normal to see. I’m not anticipating a failure of electricity or water, although it is certainly in the realm of the possible…although reduced availability seems more likely than a total dryout/blackout….but I need to get the angles on that just in case.

And, because interesting times are worth remembering, some pictures from my explorations…all from the same grocery:

There are several variations, but they all amount to the same thing. Here’s the Todd Rundgren version:

For want of a nail, the shoe was lost,
For want of a shoe, the horse was lost,
For want of a horse, the rider was lost,
For want of a rider, the message was lost,
For want of a message, the battle was lost,
For want of a battle, the war was lost,
For want of a war, the kingdom was lost,
All for the want of a nail

The moral here is that the seemingly small and insignificant detail can ‘Butterfly Effect‘ into something bigger.

The media, which seems to be whipsawing between ‘create’ vs ‘control’ in terms of panicmongering, is full of statements about how hoarding and panic shopping is unnecessary because supermarkets get restocked darn near every day, comrade!

In NYFC, schools will be closed.

The connection between the two? The truck driving single dad (or mom) who now can’t work their usual hours, or at all, because they have to watch their kids. So their delivery schedule cuts cut, delayed, or cancelled. Multiply that by all the other people who now have to work less hours or not at all because they gotta have someone watch the kids. It’s these downstream effects that no one seems to take into consideration.

Chicago is closing down its restaurants. Vendors, employees, etc, are gonna have to hope they can go two weeks without a paycheck. 40% of Americans can’t cover a $400 emergency expense….  and when they get back to work in two weeks, if theyre allowed to re-open, what will the customer turnout be like?

This event really will be quite instructive. There should be reams and reams of after-action reports to absorb when this all finally shakes out. It’ll especially be interesting to see which regions/states/countries fared better/worse and why.